JAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO., LTD. |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 1,486 JPY | -1.39% |
|
-1.82% | +18.02% |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 5,239,992 | 3,419,360 | 3,989,588 | 3,304,283 | 3,724,484 | 4,804,601 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | -47,004,475 | -28,493,675 | -45,529,311 | 130,283,925 | 127,844,050 | 138,649,563 | 118,427,101 | 118,470,201 |
| P/E ratio | 10.9 x | 7.07 x | 9.54 x | 6.81 x | 8.91 x | 19.1 x | 16.1 x | 11.6 x |
| Yield | 3.86% | 5.91% | 5.07% | 5.57% | 4.64% | 3.26% | 3.32% | 3.41% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.41 x | 0.29 x | 0.34 x | 0.29 x | 0.33 x | 0.41 x | 0.45 x | 0.42 x |
| EV / Revenue | -3.68 x | -2.38 x | -3.88 x | 11.6 x | 11.5 x | 11.6 x | 11.1 x | 10.5 x |
| EV / EBITDA | -42.7 x | -24.6 x | -37.9 x | 104 x | 144 x | 152 x | 129 x | 111 x |
| EV / FCF | 5.34 x | -21.2 x | - | 20.4 x | 106 x | -13.8 x | -595 x | -755 x |
| FCF Yield | 18.7% | -4.73% | - | 4.91% | 0.94% | -7.27% | -0.17% | -0.13% |
| Price to Book | 0.39 x | 0.31 x | 0.29 x | 0.27 x | 0.37 x | 0.48 x | 0.49 x | 0.47 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 4,043,204 | 4,043,230 | 4,043,365 | 3,677,964 | 3,459,809 | 3,187,132 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 1,296 | 845.7 | 986.7 | 898.4 | 1,076 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/15/20 | 5/14/21 | 5/13/22 | 5/15/23 | 5/15/24 | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 12,774,999 | 11,950,185 | 11,720,403 | 11,264,774 | 11,138,580 | 11,982,152 | 10,638,482 | 11,334,651 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,100,078 | 1,158,468 | 1,200,447 | 1,246,825 | 886,989 | 911,006 | 918,106 | 1,066,111 |
| EBIT 1 | 830,696 | 864,457 | 914,164 | 991,464 | 657,499 | 668,316 | 791,641 | 911,678 |
| Operating Margin | 6.5% | 7.23% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.58% | 7.44% | 8.04% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 695,487 | 749,534 | 694,525 | 841,287 | 695,212 | 629,029 | - | 864,550 |
| Net income 1 | 479,419 | 483,733 | 418,238 | 501,685 | 431,066 | 268,685 | 302,546 | 397,187 |
| Net margin | 3.75% | 4.05% | 3.57% | 4.45% | 3.87% | 2.24% | 2.84% | 3.5% |
| EPS 2 | 118.6 | 119.6 | 103.4 | 131.9 | 120.8 | 80.26 | 93.77 | 130.3 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -8,795,843 | 1,346,334 | - | 6,397,388 | 1,200,920 | -10,077,657 | -199,000 | -157,000 |
| FCF margin | -68.85% | 11.27% | - | 56.79% | 10.78% | -84.11% | -1.87% | -1.39% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | - | 116.22% | - | 513.09% | 135.39% | - | - | - |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | - | 278.32% | - | 1,275.18% | 278.59% | - | - | - |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 51.43 |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/15/20 | 5/14/21 | 5/13/22 | 5/15/23 | 5/15/24 | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2020 S1 | 2020 S2 | 2021 S1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 S1 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 S1 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 S1 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 5,969,326 | 5,980,859 | 5,639,129 | 2,886,707 | 5,750,780 | 2,762,193 | 2,751,801 | 2,718,248 | 2,732,212 | 5,450,460 | 2,961,333 | 2,726,787 | 2,847,941 | 2,770,242 | 5,618,183 | 2,814,424 | 3,549,545 | 2,537,329 | 2,441,460 | 2,502,676 | 3,010,039 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT 1 | - | 461,834 | - | - | - | 228,566 | 215,230 | 162,595 | 131,796 | - | - | 123,890 | 173,010 | 162,245 | - | 185,073 | 147,988 | 158,878 | 140,187 | 227,888 | 193,350 |
| Operating Margin | - | 7.72% | - | - | - | 8.27% | 7.82% | 5.98% | 4.82% | - | - | 4.54% | 6.07% | 5.86% | - | 6.58% | 4.17% | 6.26% | 5.74% | 9.11% | 6.42% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | 376,820 | - | 331,351 | - | 467,581 | 198,427 | - | 184,833 | - | 354,660 | 222,673 | - | 78,196 | - | 312,285 | 179,715 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net income | 236,599 | 247,134 | 178,951 | - | 265,163 | 138,290 | - | 118,555 | - | 205,912 | 170,366 | - | -8,535 | - | 120,239 | 101,740 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net margin | 3.96% | 4.13% | 3.17% | - | 4.61% | 5.01% | - | 4.36% | - | 3.78% | 5.75% | - | -0.3% | - | 2.14% | 3.61% | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS 2 | 58.52 | - | 44.26 | 28.34 | 68.33 | 36.79 | 26.81 | 32.46 | 24.35 | 56.81 | 47.83 | 16.18 | -2.470 | 37.44 | 34.97 | 30.56 | 14.73 | 25.49 | 26.16 | 25.68 | 18.54 |
| Dividend per Share | 25.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/14/19 | 5/15/20 | 11/13/20 | 11/12/21 | 11/12/21 | 2/14/22 | 5/13/22 | 8/10/22 | 11/11/22 | 11/11/22 | 2/14/23 | 5/15/23 | 8/10/23 | 11/13/23 | 11/13/23 | 2/14/24 | 5/15/24 | - | - | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | - | - | - | 126,979,642 | 124,119,566 | 133,739,378 | 113,622,500 | 113,665,600 |
| Net Cash position 1 | 52,244,467 | 31,913,035 | 49,518,899 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | 101.8 x | 139.9 x | 146.8 x | 123.8 x | 106.6 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -8,795,843 | 1,346,334 | - | 6,397,388 | 1,200,920 | -10,077,657 | -199,000 | -157,000 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 3.6% | 4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.53% | 4.36% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 0.17% | 0.3% | 0.31% | 0.33% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.14% |
| Assets 1 | 288,407,026 | 160,112,869 | 133,554,094 | 152,201,019 | 196,672,142 | 119,564,347 | 282,753,110 | 281,693,024 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 3,288 | 2,704 | 3,412 | 3,361 | 2,913 | 3,203 | 3,106 | 3,231 |
| Cash Flow per Share | 185.0 | 192.0 | 174.0 | 199.0 | 185.0 | 153.0 | - | - |
| Capex 1 | 229,076 | 133,811 | 214,819 | 203,790 | 323,213 | 319,970 | 400,000 | 400,000 |
| Capex / Sales | 1.79% | 1.12% | 1.83% | 1.81% | 2.9% | 2.67% | 3.76% | 3.53% |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/15/20 | 5/14/21 | 5/13/22 | 5/15/23 | 5/15/24 | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
1,508
JPY
Average target price
1,746
JPY
Spread / Average Target
+15.80%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.02% | 30.55B | |
| +7.91% | 99.28B | |
| +3.80% | 97.23B | |
| -17.27% | 81.58B | |
| +19.93% | 76.13B | |
| +19.29% | 31.04B | |
| +1.40% | 17.1B | |
| -11.44% | 14.7B | |
| +17.82% | 12.37B | |
| +8.39% | 10.03B |
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