Financials Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Equities

600519

CNE0000018R8

Distillers & Wineries

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-16 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,715 ^CNY	+0.62%		-1.38%	-0.64%

May. 15	Nanhua Futures CFO Steps Down	MT
May. 01	Kweichow Moutai's Chairman Resigns	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,486,082	2,509,883	2,575,205	2,169,454	2,168,197	2,154,379	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,472,830	2,473,792	2,523,500	2,111,289	2,099,184	1,954,763	1,903,799	1,857,295
P/E ratio	36.1 x	53.8 x	49.1 x	34.6 x	29 x	24.3 x	21.1 x	18.5 x
Yield	1.44%	0.97%	1.06%	1.5%	1.79%	2.12%	2.52%	2.88%
Capitalization / Revenue	16.7 x	26.4 x	24.3 x	17 x	14.7 x	12.2 x	10.7 x	9.41 x
EV / Revenue	16.6 x	26.1 x	23.8 x	16.6 x	14.2 x	11.1 x	9.48 x	8.11 x
EV / EBITDA	24.4 x	36.4 x	33.1 x	23.6 x	19.9 x	16.1 x	13.5 x	11.6 x
EV / FCF	35 x	49.9 x	41.6 x	67.3 x	32.8 x	22.1 x	19.4 x	16.4 x
FCF Yield	2.86%	2%	2.4%	1.49%	3.05%	4.52%	5.15%	6.12%
Price to Book	10.9 x	15.6 x	13.6 x	11 x	10.1 x	8.35 x	6.87 x	5.93 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	-	-
Reference price ²	1,183	1,998	2,050	1,727	1,726	1,715	1,715	1,715
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	88,854	94,915	106,190	127,554	147,694	175,872	200,759	229,042
EBITDA ¹	60,285	67,952	76,230	89,556	105,629	121,649	140,577	160,304
EBIT ¹	59,041	66,635	74,751	87,880	103,709	121,273	139,935	159,704
Operating Margin	66.45%	70.2%	70.39%	68.9%	70.22%	68.96%	69.7%	69.73%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	58,783	66,197	74,528	87,701	103,663	122,854	141,125	161,687
Net income ¹	41,206	46,697	52,460	62,716	74,734	88,516	101,939	116,682
Net margin	46.38%	49.2%	49.4%	49.17%	50.6%	50.33%	50.78%	50.94%
EPS ²	32.80	37.17	41.76	49.93	59.49	70.45	81.20	92.92
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,062	49,580	60,622	31,392	63,998	88,428	98,084	113,574
FCF margin	47.34%	52.24%	57.09%	24.61%	43.33%	50.28%	48.86%	49.59%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	69.77%	72.96%	79.53%	35.05%	60.59%	72.69%	69.77%	70.85%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	102.08%	106.17%	115.56%	50.05%	85.63%	99.9%	96.22%	97.34%
Dividend per Share ²	17.02	19.29	21.68	25.91	30.88	36.38	43.23	49.43
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	43,953	49,087	31,548	57,103	32,296	25,321	29,543	37,768	38,756	30,820	70,987	33,692	44,425	-	45,776	36,600	39,800	52,500	52,800	42,400
EBITDA	-	-	20,941	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	32,081	-	21,728	39,679	24,027	17,608	20,327	25,918	28,686	21,206	49,892	23,280	30,537	-	33,157	24,637	27,427	36,973	-	-
Operating Margin	72.99%	-	68.87%	69.49%	74.4%	69.54%	68.8%	68.62%	74.02%	68.81%	70.28%	69.09%	68.74%	-	72.43%	67.31%	68.91%	70.43%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	31,978	-	21,672	-	-	-	-	-	28,700	21,224	-	23,303	30,436	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	22,602	24,654	15,194	27,806	17,245	12,549	14,606	18,317	20,795	15,186	-	16,896	21,858	38,754	24,065	17,717	21,119	24,077	-	-
Net margin	51.42%	50.22%	48.16%	48.69%	53.4%	49.56%	49.44%	48.5%	53.66%	49.27%	-	50.15%	49.2%	-	52.57%	48.41%	53.06%	45.86%	-	-
EPS ²	-	-	12.09	-	13.73	9.990	11.62	14.59	16.55	12.09	28.64	13.45	17.40	-	19.16	14.23	16.22	20.33	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	21.68	-	-	-	-	25.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	61.53	-	-
Announcement Date	7/28/20	7/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/26/22	8/2/22	10/16/22	3/30/23	4/25/23	8/2/23	8/2/23	10/20/23	4/2/24	4/2/24	4/27/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	13,252	36,091	51,706	58,165	69,013	199,616	250,581	297,085
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,062	49,580	60,622	31,392	63,998	88,428	98,084	113,574
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	33.1%	31.4%	29.9%	30.3%	34.2%	35.3%	34.5%	34.6%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	24%	23.6%	22.4%	24.6%	-	28%	26.9%	25.9%
Assets ¹	171,444	198,223	234,282	254,767	-	315,923	378,944	450,888
Book Value Per Share ²	108.0	128.0	151.0	157.0	172.0	206.0	250.0	289.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	36.00	41.10	51.00	29.20	53.00	75.50	80.90	98.00
Capex ¹	3,149	2,089	3,406	5,306	2,595	4,165	4,297	3,544
Capex / Sales	3.54%	2.2%	3.21%	4.16%	1.76%	2.37%	2.14%	1.55%
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

1,715 CNY

Average target price

2,162 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+26.04%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Distilleries

	1st Jan change	Capi.
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LUZHOU LAOJIAO CO.,LTD	+5.81%	38.7B
JIANGSU YANGHE BREWERY JOINT-STOCK CO., LTD.	-11.10%	20.38B
ANHUI GUJING DISTILLERY CO., LTD.	+14.76%	17.1B
DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.	-4.61%	12.8B
UNITED SPIRITS LIMITED	+5.66%	10.07B
JIANGSU KING'S LUCK BREWERY JOINT-STOCK CO.,LTD.	+18.15%	9.94B
ANHUI YINGJIA DISTILLERY CO., LTD.	+9.94%	8.07B

Distilleries