Financials Canadian National Railway Company

Equities

CNR

CA1363751027

Ground Freight & Logistics

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-06-11 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
169.5 ^CAD	-0.95%		-1.18%	+1.76%

Jun. 07	TSX Closer: The Market Ends the Week on a Down Note on Potential Strikes at Railways and the Border, Weak Job Growth	MT
Jun. 07	Canadian National Railway Offers Binding Arbitration to Teamsters Canada Rail Conference	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	84,035	99,385	109,745	108,728	107,541	107,537	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	97,767	111,722	121,392	123,829	125,539	127,989	129,373	129,292
P/E ratio	20.1 x	28 x	22.6 x	21.6 x	19.5 x	21.2 x	18.9 x	17.6 x
Yield	1.83%	1.64%	1.58%	1.82%	1.9%	1.99%	2.13%	2.24%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.63 x	7.19 x	7.58 x	6.36 x	6.39 x	6.05 x	5.71 x	5.43 x
EV / Revenue	6.55 x	8.08 x	8.39 x	7.24 x	7.46 x	7.2 x	6.87 x	6.53 x
EV / EBITDA	13.7 x	16.3 x	16.8 x	14.4 x	14.9 x	14.1 x	13.3 x	12.4 x
EV / FCF	49.1 x	33.8 x	29.8 x	31.6 x	33.2 x	35.7 x	31.4 x	32 x
FCF Yield	2.04%	2.96%	3.36%	3.16%	3.01%	2.8%	3.19%	3.13%
Price to Book	4.64 x	5.06 x	4.79 x	5.05 x	5.45 x	5.57 x	5.49 x	5.23 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	715,370	710,200	706,300	676,000	645,695	634,513	-	-
Reference price ²	117.5	139.9	155.4	160.8	166.6	169.5	169.5	169.5
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	14,917	13,819	14,477	17,107	16,828	17,770	18,824	19,801
EBITDA ¹	7,155	6,852	7,220	8,591	8,414	9,052	9,758	10,446
EBIT ¹	5,708	5,263	5,622	6,862	6,597	7,119	7,768	8,398
Operating Margin	38.27%	38.09%	38.83%	40.11%	39.2%	40.06%	41.27%	42.41%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	5,429	4,544	6,333	6,763	6,488	6,696	7,237	7,742
Net income ¹	4,216	3,562	4,892	5,118	5,625	5,071	5,482	5,870
Net margin	28.26%	25.78%	33.79%	29.92%	33.43%	28.53%	29.12%	29.65%
EPS ²	5.830	5.000	6.890	7.440	8.530	8.005	8.959	9.616
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,992	3,302	4,080	3,917	3,778	3,589	4,124	4,043
FCF margin	13.35%	23.89%	28.18%	22.9%	22.45%	20.2%	21.91%	20.42%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	27.84%	48.19%	56.51%	45.59%	44.9%	39.65%	42.27%	38.71%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	47.25%	92.7%	83.4%	76.53%	67.16%	70.79%	75.23%	68.88%
Dividend per Share ²	2.150	2.300	2.460	2.930	3.160	3.379	3.603	3.804
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	3,753	3,708	4,344	4,513	4,542	4,313	4,057	3,987	4,471	4,249	4,348	4,430	4,759	4,544	4,681
EBITDA ¹	1,962	1,657	2,204	2,367	2,363	2,110	2,049	1,974	2,281	2,008	2,236	2,321	2,479	2,203	2,424
EBIT ¹	1,579	1,237	1,781	1,932	1,912	1,662	1,600	1,517	1,818	1,546	1,761	1,833	1,978	1,703	1,932
Operating Margin	42.07%	33.36%	41%	42.81%	42.1%	38.53%	39.44%	38.05%	40.66%	36.39%	40.49%	41.37%	41.55%	37.47%	41.28%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,572	1,212	1,755	1,915	1,881	1,617	1,548	1,451	1,872	1,451	1,651	1,725	1,874	1,586	1,798
Net income ¹	1,199	918	1,325	1,455	1,420	1,220	1,167	1,108	2,130	1,103	1,247	1,301	1,412	1,204	1,360
Net margin	31.95%	24.76%	30.5%	32.24%	31.26%	28.29%	28.77%	27.79%	47.64%	25.96%	28.68%	29.38%	29.68%	26.49%	29.04%
EPS ²	1.690	1.310	1.920	2.130	2.100	1.820	1.760	1.690	3.290	1.720	1.967	2.062	2.253	1.930	2.237
Dividend per Share ²	0.6150	0.7325	0.7325	0.7325	0.7325	0.7900	0.7900	0.7900	0.7900	0.8450	0.8436	0.8879	0.8459	0.9118	0.9118
Announcement Date	1/25/22	4/26/22	7/26/22	10/25/22	1/24/23	4/24/23	7/25/23	10/24/23	1/23/24	4/23/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	13,732	12,337	11,647	15,101	17,998	20,452	21,836	21,755
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.919 x	1.8 x	1.613 x	1.758 x	2.139 x	2.259 x	2.238 x	2.083 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,992	3,302	4,080	3,917	3,778	3,589	4,124	4,043
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	23.6%	18.9%	23.1%	23.2%	27.1%	25.8%	29.5%	30.9%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	9.92%	8.04%	10.5%	10.3%	10.9%	9.41%	9.83%	10.3%
Assets ¹	42,500	44,294	46,671	49,600	51,664	53,890	55,772	56,991
Book Value Per Share ²	25.30	27.70	32.40	31.90	30.60	30.40	30.90	32.40
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.200	8.650	9.810	9.690	10.60	11.50	13.20	14.70
Capex ¹	3,865	2,863	2,891	2,750	3,187	3,423	3,574	3,638
Capex / Sales	25.91%	20.72%	19.97%	16.08%	18.94%	19.26%	18.98%	18.37%
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian National Railway Company

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

169.5 CAD

Average target price

183.5 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+8.28%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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