Allianz : Season of Extremes

'When any extreme weather disaster occurs,' says Markus Stowasser, Head of Catastrophe Research and Development at Allianz Re, 'climate change is one of the 'usual suspects' listed. It is, however, almost impossible to attribute any one event to climate change, but a clear pattern is emerging.' According to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), which has one of world's largest archives of environmental data, 2017 was a year of 'historic weather and climate disasters' in the United States. The country experienced 16 separate billion-dollar disasters. These included one drought, eight severe storms and Hurricane Harvey, which dropped an unprecedented amount of water on the Houston area, as well as Hurricane Irma and Maria. Between 1980 and 2017, the annual average of events was 5.8. In comparison, the average for the five most recent years (2013-2017) is 11.6 events.

'It makes sense that extreme precipitation events would be increasing in both frequency and intensity,' says Stowasser. 'In a warmer world, there is more water in the atmosphere which can rain out and consequently lead to higher risk of flooding.' A report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research gives an insight into the scope of the challenge until the 2040s. If the impact of climate change cannot be reduced, the U.S. will need to at least double its protection level to avoid dramatic increases in river flood risks. Africa, India, Indonesia and Central Europe, including Germany, will also face severe flooding unless additional prevention measures are undertaken.

Stowasser says 2017 was a wakeup call. 'The indications are that extreme weather events - especially flooding and all the tragedy that involves - will be more severe in the future unless we make dramatic reductions in greenhouses gas emissions to limit global warming.'