Financials Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Equities

BABA

US01609W1027

Internet Services

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 03:32:05 2024-06-12 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
78.1 ^USD	+0.26%		-1.88%	+1.06%

Jun. 11	Cainiao's Delivery Charge Waiver Seen as Boon For Hong Kong's Supply Chain Management	MT
Jun. 11	China's discount wars risk cementing frugal consumer mindset	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: Marzo	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Capitalization ¹	3,695,673	4,027,830	1,854,401	1,800,338	1,310,704	1,365,316	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	3,490,600	3,845,890	1,805,847	1,768,606	1,233,355	1,108,694	937,243	924,940
P/E ratio	24.6 x	27.2 x	30.3 x	25.6 x	16.7 x	13.5 x	11.4 x	10.1 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	2.3%	1.15%	1.35%	1.58%
Capitalization / Revenue	7.25 x	5.62 x	2.17 x	2.07 x	1.39 x	1.34 x	1.24 x	1.15 x
EV / Revenue	6.85 x	5.36 x	2.12 x	2.04 x	1.31 x	1.09 x	0.85 x	0.78 x
EV / EBITDA	22.1 x	19.5 x	11.4 x	10.1 x	6.43 x	5.89 x	4.45 x	4.15 x
EV / FCF	24.4 x	20 x	18.3 x	10.3 x	7.9 x	7 x	4.96 x	4.73 x
FCF Yield	4.1%	5%	5.48%	9.71%	12.7%	14.3%	20.1%	21.2%
Price to Book	4.79 x	4.35 x	1.98 x	1.87 x	1.35 x	1.3 x	1.17 x	1.07 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,683,752	2,711,119	2,687,500	2,565,752	2,506,837	2,418,186	-	-
Reference price ²	1,377	1,486	690.0	701.7	522.9	564.6	564.6	564.6
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: März	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	509,711	717,289	853,062	868,687	941,168	1,020,145	1,100,239	1,182,421
EBITDA ¹	157,659	196,842	158,205	175,710	191,668	188,135	210,410	222,947
EBIT ¹	91,430	89,678	69,638	100,351	113,350	132,735	148,740	159,092
Operating Margin	17.94%	12.5%	8.16%	11.55%	12.04%	13.01%	13.52%	13.45%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	166,645	165,578	59,550	89,185	101,596	124,036	143,685	151,934
Net income ¹	149,263	150,308	61,959	72,509	79,741	106,744	123,065	137,978
Net margin	29.28%	20.96%	7.26%	8.35%	8.47%	10.46%	11.19%	11.67%
EPS ²	55.93	54.70	22.74	27.46	31.24	41.73	49.54	55.70
Free Cash Flow ¹	143,109	192,263	98,874	171,663	156,210	158,370	188,837	195,713
FCF margin	28.08%	26.8%	11.59%	19.76%	16.6%	15.52%	17.16%	16.55%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	90.77%	97.67%	62.5%	97.7%	81.5%	84.18%	89.75%	87.78%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	95.88%	127.91%	159.58%	236.75%	195.9%	148.36%	153.45%	141.84%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	12.02	6.507	7.635	8.900
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1
Net sales ¹	242,580	204,052	205,555	207,176	247,756	208,200	455,956	234,156	224,790	260,348	221,874	246,844	241,895	280,785	245,992	270,576
EBITDA ¹	51,364	23,373	41,114	43,311	59,162	32,123	-	52,052	49,237	59,572	30,807	46,466	45,828	57,883	41,014	51,521
EBIT ¹	7,068	16,717	24,943	25,137	35,031	15,240	50,271	42,490	33,584	22,511	14,765	32,612	30,896	41,080	23,343	35,258
Operating Margin	2.91%	8.19%	12.13%	12.13%	14.14%	7.32%	11.03%	18.15%	14.94%	8.65%	6.65%	13.21%	12.77%	14.63%	9.49%	13.03%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	29,326	-19,560	29,177	-15,759	50,459	25,308	-	36,172	38,257	17,318	9,849	33,006	30,914	43,060	22,672	-
Net income ¹	20,429	-16,241	22,739	-20,561	46,815	23,516	-	34,332	27,706	14,433	3,270	26,805	23,920	33,810	19,116	-
Net margin	8.42%	-7.96%	11.06%	-9.92%	18.9%	11.29%	-	14.66%	12.33%	5.54%	1.47%	10.86%	9.89%	12.04%	7.77%	-
EPS ²	7.510	-6.070	8.510	-7.770	17.91	9.000	-	13.30	10.77	5.650	1.300	12.03	10.99	13.62	6.519	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3.616	3.775	-
Announcement Date	2/24/22	5/26/22	8/4/22	11/17/22	2/23/23	5/18/23	5/18/23	8/10/23	11/16/23	2/7/24	5/14/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	205,073	181,940	48,554	31,732	77,349	256,622	428,073	440,377
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	143,109	192,263	98,874	171,663	156,210	158,370	188,837	195,713
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	23.9%	17.8%	15.2%	7.48%	16%	10.2%	10.9%	10.5%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	13.1%	10%	8.48%	4.21%	9%	5.56%	6.04%	6.13%
Assets ¹	1,139,064	1,501,601	730,861	1,724,311	885,716	1,920,656	2,036,748	2,250,847
Book Value Per Share ²	288.0	341.0	348.0	375.0	386.0	436.0	484.0	529.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	67.70	84.40	52.40	75.60	71.50	67.70	73.30	84.50
Capex ¹	37,498	39,523	42,028	30,373	27,579	40,220	43,629	45,385
Capex / Sales	7.36%	5.51%	4.93%	3.5%	2.93%	3.94%	3.97%	3.84%
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

564.6 CNY

Average target price

766.5 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+35.76%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector E-commerce & Auction Services

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E-commerce & Auction Services