June
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1
YELLOW CAKE
Buy and hold strategy
Pure exposure to the uranium commodity price
Ability to purchase in volume, at the spot price
Inventory stored In safe jurisdictions
Low-cost structure
We purchase natural uranium (U3O8) and hold for the long-term
No exploration, development or operating risk
Ability to purchase up to US$100m of U3O8 from Kazatomprom per year (through 2027)
Uranium stored in Canada (Cameco) and France (Orano)
Outsourced operating model
Targeting annual operating costs of <1% of NAV
URANIUM MARKET UPDATE
May 2024
Spot Market Overview(1)
- Activity in the global U3O8 spot market increased noticeably during May, with UxC reporting a total of 7.4 Mlbs. transacted as compared to 1.8 Mlbs. during April 2024. One primary driver of this surge was the signing of the "Prohibiting Russian Imports Act" as discussed below. To date the aggregate
spot market volume for 2024 (January-May) now totals 19.1 Mlbs. U3O8. The spot uranium price rose slightly in May ending the month at US$90.75 /lb., an increase of US$2.75 /lb. from April
Long-Term Pricing(1)
- All three longer term uranium price indicators showed incremental improvement during May as the 3-yr Forward price increased to US$98.00 /lb. (April - US$95.00 /lb.), while the 5-yr Forward Price reported at US$105.00 /lb. (April - US$102.00 /lb.) The Long-Term Price firmed slightly reaching US$77.00 /lb. (April - US$75.00 /lb.)
The U.S.(2)
- On 13 May, President Biden signed into law the "Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act," which becomes effective 11 August 2024, when imports of Russian uranium into the United States are no longer allowed, subject to a waiver procedure
- The prohibition allows the Secretary of Energy (in consultation with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce) to waive temporarily the prohibition, and permits importation of Russian low-enriched uranium ("LEU") if the Secretary of Energy determines that there is no alternative viable source of LEU available to sustain the continuing operation of a nuclear reactor or a United States nuclear energy company, or importation of LEU is in the national interest." However, any waiver by the Secretary of Energy will terminate no later than 1 January 2028 when all Russian uranium importation will be banned through 2040
Norway(3)
- Norwegian power company, Norsk Kjernekraft, announced plans to construct small modular reactors ("SMRs") to provide "off-grid" power for data centres and other industrial users. The SMRs would be deployed on-site and offer dedicated power for individual facilities or regions. Norway's current power plants produced 156 TWh in 2023 however, forecasts of future power needs vary from an additional 50 TWh, up to as much as 233 TWh
Japan(4)
- Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority has approved operating license extension (20 years) for Kansai Electric Power Company's Takahama 3 & 4 reactors
(2 x 830 Mwe). Previously, Kansai's Takahama 1 & 2 (2 x 780 Mwe) were the first two reactors in Japan to receive operating license extensions
Sources:
- UxC Weekly; "UxC Price Indicators"; 27 May 2024
- U.S. Department of Energy Press Release; "Biden-Harris Administration Enacts Law Banning Importation of Russian Uranium"; 14 May 2024
3) | Datacenterdynamics.com; "Norsk Kjernekraft wants to build small module ncuelar reactors at Norway's data centers"; 21 May 2024 | 3 |
4) | World Nuclear News; "Takahama units cleared for extended operation"; 29 May 2024 | |
URANIUM MARKET UPDATE
May 2024
UxC Annual Review 2023(1)
- UxC published its annual review of global uranium production for CY2023. Worldwide uranium output rose by 14 Mlbs. for the year, recording a total of 143 Mlbs. as compared to 129 Mlbs. for CY2022. Contributing to the uplift included ramp-up of Cigar Lake and McArthur River in Canada, incremental increases at both the Rossing and Husab mines in Namibia, as well as higher recovery from Navoiyuran's ISR mines in Uzbekistan
- Kazakhstan remained the world's largest uranium producing country, with an aggregate output of 54.9 Mlbs. (39% of global production), followed by Canada which contributed a total of 28.6 Mlbs. (20% of global output). Namibian production rose by 24%, recording an aggregate output of 18.2 Mlbs. with CGN's Husab mine producing 11.7 Mlbs., an increase of 34% over 2022 output
- UxC forecasts CY2024 global uranium production will fall in the range of 153-158 Mlbs. based upon further increases at Cigar Lake and McArthur River, as well as the restarts at Langer Heinrich (Namibia) and Honeymoon (South Australia)
Taiwan(2,3)
- Taiwan Power Company announced the pending closure of the Maanshan Unit 1 reactor effective 27 July 2024. The government plans to replace the electricity utilising thermal power plants as well as renewable sources. Previously, under the government's nuclear phase-out policy, Taiwan shut-down Chinshan 1 & 2 as well as Kuosheng 1 & 2. Operating license for the Maanshan - 2 unit expires in May 2025
- Citing the need to supply stable electricity to Taiwan's expanding artificial intelligence sector, Taiwan's National Development Council stated that the council would not reject nuclear energy generation as long as there is a government consensus in support of nuclear power
Russia(4)
- Russia's ROSATOM announced an agreement to construct a "small" nuclear power plant ("SNPP") in Uzbekistan. The SNPP project is to be located in the Jizzakh region of the Central Asian republic and will incorporate the RITM-200N reactor technology which Russia has adapted from reactors utilised by the country's icebreaker fleet. The land-based version has electrical power capacity of 55 Mw and an expected operating life of 60 years
South Korea(5)
- South Korea's government is reviewing a draft version of the "11th Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan" which forecasts the country's demand for electricity increasing to 129.3 GW by 2028, an increase of 30% from 2023, with demand growth mainly being driven by demand from the semiconductor and data centre industries. The draft plan envisions carbon-free energy sources in the energy mix increasing from about 40% in 2023, up to 70% by 2028. The nuclear power component would rise from the expected 2030 level of 31.8%, up to 35.6% in 2038
- One scenario incorporates the construction of three AP-1400 reactors supplemented by 0.7 GW, allocated for the commercialisation demonstration of small modular reactors currently under development
Sources:
- Ux Weekly; "2023 U3O8 Production Review"; 20 May 2024
- Taiwan News; "Taiwan's Maanshan Nuclear Plant Unit 1 to shut down in July"; 29 May 2024
- TaiwanPlus News; "Taiwan's Government Open to Possibility of continuing Nuclear Power"; 30 May 2024
4) | ROSATOM Digital Press Office; "The Russian Federation and Uzbekistan sign an agreement on the construction of a small nuclear power plant"; 27 May 2024 | 4 |
5) | World Nuclear News; "New nuclear included in draft Korean energy plan"; 31 May 2024 | |
NET ASSET VALUE AS AT 4 JUNE 2024
Investment in Uranium | Units | ||
Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U₃O₈") | (A) | lbs. | 21,682,318 |
U₃O₈ fair value per pound(1) | (B) | US$ /lb. | 89.55 |
U₃O₈ fair value | (A) x (B) = (C) | US$ mm | 1,941.7 |
Cash and other net current assets / (liabilities)(2) | (D) | US$ mm | 30.1 |
Net asset value in US$ mm | (C) + (D) = (E) | US$ mm | 1,971.8 |
Exchange rate(3) | (F) | USD/GBP | 1.2780 |
Net asset value in £ mm | (E) / (F) = (G) | £ mm | 1,542.8 |
Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury(4) | (H) | 216,856,447 | |
Net asset value per share | (G) / (H) | £ /share | 7.11 |
Source:
- UxC, LLC on 4 June 2024
- Cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$130.1m as at 31 March 2024 less cash consideration of US$100.0m paid to Kazatomprom following delivery of 1.53 million lb of U3O8 on 3 June 2024
3) | The Bank of England's daily exchange rate on 4 June 2024 | 5 |
4) | Estimated net asset value per share on 4 June 2024 is calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue, less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on that date | |
YELLOW CAKE CORPORATE SUMMARY
Corporate overview | GBP share price and uranium price L12M(1,3) |
Last share price(1) | £6.24 |
NAV per share(2) | £7.11 |
Market cap (mm)(1) | £1,352.1 |
Shares outstanding less those held | 216.9 |
in treasury (mm) | |
Shares held in treasury (mm)(2) | 4.6 |
52 week high | £7.45 |
52 week low | £3.98 |
Analyst coverage and rating
Buy
Buy
Buy
120 | 10.00 | ||
9.00 | |||
100 | 8.00 | ||
(US$/lb.) | (£)Price | ||
80 | 7.00 | ||
SpotUraniumPrice | 6.00 | ShareCakeYellow | |
60 | 5.00 | ||
4.00 | |||
40 | 3.00 | ||
20 | 2.00 | ||
1.00 | |||
- | - | ||
Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Jan 24 Mar 24Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 | |||
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Share Price |
Blue chip shareholder register
Buy
Hold
MMCAP Fund | JD Squared |
Source:
- Cap IQ on 4 June 2024
- Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 4 June 2024. See calculation on page 5
3) UxC, LLC on 4 June 2024 | 6 |
U3O8 SPOT PRICE IS EXCEEDING LEVELS AT THE TIME OF THE FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT(1,2)
U3O8 Spot Price (US$ /lb.)
Current spot price | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
120 | 4 June 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$89.55) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | Fukushima accident | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 March 2011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$68.08) | SPUT completes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UPC acquisition | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 July 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$32.41) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yellow Cake IPO | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 July 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$22.94) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Supply cuts by major | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
producers stabilise | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pricing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 2016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Driven by | Russia invades | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Fukushima, overall | Covid driven | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
demand falls on | Ukraine | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
curtailments add to | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
safety concerns | 24 February 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
supply pressure | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2011-2016 | (Spot US$45.00) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
March 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$24.75) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jan 11 | Jan 12 | Jan 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 | Jan 16 | Jan 17 | Jan 18 | Jan 19 | Jan 20 | Jan 21 | Jan 22 | Jan 23 | Jan 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Equity Raises | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: | 7 |
- UxC, LLC, "Historical Daily Broker Average Price", 4 June 2024
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION SUPPORTING NUCLEAR GROWTH
Nuclear power generates the least CO2 equivalent emissions compared to all other power sources
CO2 equivalent emissions per GWh over the lifecycle of a power plant (tonnes)(1)
3
490
78-230
4 | 5 | 34 |
720820
Nuclear
Wind | Solar | Hydropower | Biomass | Natural Gas | Oil | Coal |
Note: Range of emissions from biomass depend on material being combusted
- Not only does nuclear generate >99% less CO2 equivalent emissions than non-renewable power sources (natural gas, oil, and coal), but it also generates the least amount of emissions when considering other renewable power sources traditionally considered environmentally friendly (wind and solar)
Source: | 8 |
1. Our World in Data, "Safest Sources of Energy", 2020
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR NUCLEAR INCREASING TOWARDS 2050
Market conditions and policies are shifting views on natural gas and limiting its role, while underlining the potential for nuclear power to cut emissions and strengthen electricity security(1)
Global nuclear energy demand scenarios (GW)(1)
1,000
800
600
400
200
-- | |||||||||||||
Stated Policies Scenario (GW) | Announced Pledges Scenario (GW) | Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (GW) | |||||||||||
2010 | 2021 | 2022 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | ||||||||
Source: | 9 |
1) World Energy Outlook, October 2023 | |
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Yellow Cake plc published this content on 18 June 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 18 June 2024 09:40:09 UTC.