- Worldwide GDP expected to grow by just over 3 per cent and by 0.6 per cent in the Eurozone
- European economy is already stabilizing
- Markets should remain in recovery mode, with ECB liquidity measures helping
- Main concern is possibility of sovereign and financial crisis spreading to the private sector, thus threatening social cohesion
- Global imbalances could threaten the recovery if not effectively tackled
UniCredit's Research Department, led by Global Chief Economist Erik F. Nielsen, presented today its 2012 Outlook report.
UniCredit expects global GDP growth to ease from about 4.25
per cent in 2011 to just over 3 per cent in 2012. The
Eurozone will probably see its growth rate declining from
1.6 per cent to 0.6 per cent. There is likely to have been
a trough at the end of 2011, which should be followed by a
moderately better performance during 2012. That said, the
world is facing very large uncertainties due to the
lingering impact and severity of the 2008-09 recession,
recent years' unprecedented policy reactions, and remaining
global and national imbalances.
UniCredit sees the European economy bottoming out this
winter, followed by somewhat better growth back towards 1.5
per cent annualized around end-2012. Fiscal consolidation
and continued uncertainty will be a drag on the recovery,
and tight monetary conditions in the periphery will further
hurt the recovery in these countries.
In the case of Italy, Portugal and Greece, UniCredit's
economists expect GDP to contract in 2012. Importantly,
private sector balance sheets remain in good condition in
most Eurozone countries, including Italy. Exports have
already started to recover nicely throughout the Eurozone
periphery; a trend expected to continue.
If the assumptions about the GDP path are correct, then the
market recovery should continue. The ECB's aggressive move
on liquidity, deployed as a first step in December, will
help. Spreads should tighten, equity prices should move
higher, and as banks enjoy greater access to ECB liquidity
in both euros and dollars, their need to sell
FX-denominated assets will ease - and with that we see
further Euro weakness.
However, for this moderately better outlook to materialize,
it is crucial that investors' concerns start to ease. In
spite of unprecedented fiscal and structural adjustments
throughout the Eurozone periphery, investors remain
cautious. They are concerned about the ECB's hesitant
stance towards restoring a proper transmission mechanism,
which has led to unsustainable differences in monetary
conditions across the Eurozone. They are also concerned
about uncertainties surrounding possible private sector
participation in future debt work-outs. As a result, what
is ultimately a sovereign crisis has spread to also become
a financial sector crisis, and is starting to threaten the
non-financial private sector as well as the social cohesion
in some countries.
Meanwhile, uncertainties continue to be rooted in
underlying global imbalances, which played a significant
role in triggering the crisis in 2008. They are being
addressed at a very slow pace, if at all. In the US, where
growth broadly matched that of the Eurozone last year,
private consumption - in part driven by ongoing fiscal
stimulus and lower inflation rates - is likely to fuel
somewhat better growth in 2012, but public debt as a share
of GDP is moving through 100 per cent, and household
balance sheets remain extremely vulnerable. US savings
ratios will remain below 4 per cent of income; only one
third of that in the Eurozone.
China, which - mathematically - produced more than one
third of global growth in 2011, has still not made any
significant inroads in its long-term plan to boost domestic
demand at the expense of external demand. As a result, the
Chinese economy has been slowing during the second half of
2011 due to weaker export markets. Whether the authorities
can mastermind another boost to growth, via public
investment in infrastructure and housing as well as through
state-owned enterprises, remains to be seen.
Milan, January 31 2012
Press Contacts
Media Relations: Tel. +39 02 88623254;
e-mail: MediaRelations@unicreditgroup.eu
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