Europe's main stock markets are expected to open on a cautious note on Thursday, as investors continue to digest the latest rate statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, while awaiting figures from the monthly US employment report due on Friday.

Index futures suggest a decline of 0.12% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.27% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.25% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.26% for the EuroStoxx 50.

The session is likely to be dominated once again by questions about interest rates, in the wake of the Bank of Canada's decision to pause its monetary tightening, the first of the major central banks to opt for such a policy, while in the United States, Jerome Powell assured us on Wednesday that no decision had yet been taken on the rates scheduled for this month.

The Fed's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21 and 22, that of the European Central Bank (ECB) for March 16 and that of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for Friday.

For the time being, investors are mainly looking ahead to Friday's monthly US employment report, with Jerome Powell reaffirming that the Fed's decisions will depend on the economic data. On Wednesday, the ADP survey showed an acceleration in job creation in February, and another separate survey ("Jolts") from the Labor Department showed a less marked decline in job vacancies in January.

In this respect, Thursday's release of US weekly jobless claims will be particularly interesting to watch, as markets are now pricing in a 78.6% probability of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike this month, up from around 30% at the start of the week, according to CME Group's FedWatch barometer.

STOCKS TO WATCH IN EUROPE:

On the corporate results front, Vivendi, Dassault Aviation, Hugo Boss , Aviva and Leonardo are expected to drive trading.

ON WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended mixed on Wednesday after Jerome Powell's new hearing before the US Congress and economic data published ahead of reports on the labor market and inflation.

The Dow Jones index gave up 0.18%, or 58.06 points, to 32,798.40.

The broader S&P-500 gained 5.64 points, or 0.14%, to 3,992.01 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced by 45.67 points (0.40%) to 11,576.00.

On the value side, Tesla was down 3% after the U.S. Highway Safety Administration announced a preliminary investigation of 120,000 2023 Model Ys for a possible power steering defect.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index closed up 0.63% at 28,623.15 points, while the broader Topix advanced 0.97% to 2,071.09 points on the eve of the BoJ meeting.

The Japanese economy grew at a slightly slower pace than estimated in the fourth quarter, by 0.1% year-on-year, according to revised data released on Thursday.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gave up 0.22% and the CSI 300 shed 0.35%.

As for Chinese economic statistics, the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 1.0% year-on-year last month, following a 2.1% rise in January and a consensus of 1.9%, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 1.4% in February, following a 0.8% decline the previous month and a consensus of -1.3%.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The dollar (-0.12%) remained close to a three-week high against a basket of reference currencies on Thursday.

The Japanese currency is trading at 136.62 yen to the dollar after revised GDP figures for the fourth quarter.

The euro is trading at 1.0555 dollars (+0.1%).

The Canadian dollar is down 0.02% at 1.3801 US dollars in reaction to the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain the status quo.

RATES

The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries held close to its 15-year peak at 5.06%, while the ten-year yield gained more than two basis points to 3.99%. The spread between these two maturities has widened to -108 points, the widest reversal since 1981, which is generally interpreted as a sign of a recession on the near horizon.

In Europe, the two-year and ten-year German Bund yields each advanced by around four points to 3.37% and 2.68% respectively.

OIL

The oil market was stable, with investors divided over the latest economic statistics: Brent gained 0.01% to $82.67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also gained 0.01% to $76.67 a barrel.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey)

by Claude Chendjou