The analyst believes that the Group's sales for the first quarter of its fiscal year to the end of March 2025 should be marked by persistent weakness in Asia.

We shouldn't expect any improvement, given recent indications from companies in the sector concerning China, and also a difficult basis for comparison (y/y cc growth of 40% last year, after 25% in the previous quarter)", says Oddo BHF.

The research firm has lowered its forecast for the region from -8% to -14% for the 1st quarter, and while it has raised its estimates for Japan and the Middle East, total group sales growth at cc for this quarter is now expected to be +0.7% versus 2.9% previously.

' By division, we have moderately lowered our growth forecast for Maisons Joaillères from +4% to +2.5%, but it was mainly in Horlogers Spécialisés that the weakness in Asia was likely to be most visible, resulting in an estimated growth for Q1 of -5% now (we were expecting -1%)' estimates Oddo BHF.

According to the analyst, Maisons Joaillères, which accounts for the bulk of the Group's profits, should be able to offset the weakness in Asia with a more satisfactory trend in other zones, notably Europe and the United States.

' For the financial year ending March 2025, we expect annual growth at cc of +5%, compared with 5.8% previously (Jewelry Houses at +6.2%, Specialized Watchmakers at +1.2%), and a Group EBIT margin of 23.7% (compared with 23.8%). For March 2026, Group growth is slightly lowered to 6.5% from 6.8% (Maisons Joaillères to +7.5% from 8%, Horlogers Spécialisés to +3.5%), but the EBIT margin is expected to remain unchanged at 24.6%. All in all, the revision made to annual group EBIT remains contained at -1% over the next three years' adds Oddo BHF.

The analyst considers that the share looks cheap in view of the position held in jewelry. It confirms its Buy rating, with a target price of CHF 158.

' Its multiple discount to the LVMH benchmark has narrowed, to -12%, without completely disappearing, and its multiples remain at relatively modest levels in absolute terms (PE on March 25th close to 21x, PE on March 26th close to 19x) '.

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