Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) today reported in its interim update that earnings for the fourth quarter 2010 are expected to be higher than in the third quarter 2010. Upstream results are projected to improve between sequential quarters, benefiting from higher crude oil prices and increased liquids liftings. Downstream earnings in the fourth quarter are also expected to be higher, reflecting a gain on an asset sale.

Basis for Comparison in Interim Update

The interim update contains certain industry and company operating data for the fourth quarter 2010. The production volumes, realizations, margins and certain other items in the report are based on a portion of the quarter and are not necessarily indicative of Chevron's quarterly results to be reported on January 28, 2011. The reader should not place undue reliance on this data.

Unless noted otherwise, all commentary is based on two months of the fourth quarter 2010 versus full third quarter 2010 results.

UPSTREAM

The table that follows includes information on production and price indicators for crude oil and natural gas for specific markets. Actual realizations may vary from indicative pricing due to quality and location differentials and the effect of pricing lags. International earnings are driven by actual liftings, which may differ from production due to the timing of cargoes and other factors.

             
    2009   2010
4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q  

4Q thru
Nov

 

4Q thru
Dec

U.S. Upstream

         
Net Production:
Liquids MBD 518 505 488 482 482 n/a
Natural Gas MMCFD 1,402 1,378 1,317 1,255 1,288 n/a
Total Oil-Equivalent MBOED 751 734 708 692 697 n/a
 
Pricing:
Avg. WTI Spot Price $/Bbl 76.03 78.85 77.91 76.18 82.99 84.98
Avg. Midway Sunset Posted Price $/Bbl 68.17 71.57 70.07 69.80 77.39 79.31
Nat. Gas-Henry Hub "Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 4.16 5.30 4.09 4.39 3.57 3.81
Nat. Gas-CA Border "Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 4.28 5.46 4.05 4.13 3.49 3.75
Nat. Gas-Rocky Mountain "Bid Week" Avg. $/MCF 3.83 5.03 3.53 3.40 3.04 3.33
 
Average Realizations:
Crude $/Bbl 70.28 73.32 74.16 72.19 77.77 n/a
Liquids $/Bbl 67.42 70.53 70.69 68.85 74.73 n/a
Natural Gas $/MCF 4.23 5.29 4.01 4.06 3.42 n/a
 

International Upstream

Net Production:
Liquids MBD 1,365 1,375 1,377 1,367 1,393 n/a
Natural Gas MMCFD 3,652 3,723 3,699 3,748 3,722 n/a
Canada - Synthetic Oil MBD 25 23 16 27 30 n/a
Venezuela Affiliate - Synthetic Oil MBD 28 30 29 28 29 n/a
Total Oil Equivalent - incl. Synthetic Oil MBOED 2,027 2,049 2,038 2,046 2,072 n/a
 
Pricing:
Avg. Brent Spot Price 1 $/Bbl 74.53 76.36 78.24 76.86 84.07 86.46
 
Average Realizations:
Liquids $/Bbl 68.42 70.05 71.44 69.67 77.11 n/a
Natural Gas   $/MCF   4.15   4.61   4.40   4.73   4.77   n/a

1 The Avg. Brent Spot Price is based on Platts daily assessments, using Chevron's internal formula to produce a quarterly average.

 

U.S. net oil-equivalent production during the first two months of the fourth quarter rose slightly, increasing by 5,000 barrels per day compared with the third quarter 2010 average. International net oil-equivalent production increased 26,000 barrels per day compared with the third quarter, reflecting the completion of planned maintenance in Europe.

U.S. crude oil realizations for the first two months of the fourth quarter increased $5.58 to $77.77 per barrel. International liquids realizations also increased $7.44 to $77.11 per barrel. U.S. natural gas realizations decreased $0.64 per thousand cubic feet compared with the third quarter, while international natural gas realizations were relatively flat.

DOWNSTREAM

The table that follows includes industry benchmark indicators for refining, marketing and chemicals margins. Actual margins realized by the company will differ due to crude and product mix effects, planned and unplanned shutdown activity and other company-specific and operational factors.

             
    2009   2010
4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q  

4Q thru
Nov

 

4Q thru
Dec

Downstream

         
 

Market Indicators:

$/Bbl
 

Refining Margins

U.S. West Coast – Blended 5-3-1-1 11.83 13.04 16.30 16.95 15.27 15.10
U.S. Gulf Coast – Maya 5-3-1-1 11.56 16.82 21.65 17.24 17.45 18.44
Singapore – Dubai 3-1-1-1 2.46 6.38 4.97 5.65 5.33 5.49
N.W. Europe – Brent 3-1-1-1 3.59 5.07 5.41 4.32 4.21 3.70
 

Marketing Margins

U.S. West – Weighted DTW to Spot 7.71 6.87 6.12 5.87 4.45 4.33
U.S. East – Houston Mogas Rack to Spot 3.18 3.18 3.84 3.97 3.61 3.74
Asia-Pacific / Middle East / Africa 4.37 5.29 5.71 6.48 5.54 n/a
 

Actual Volumes:

U.S. Refinery Input MBD 856 889 917 880 848 n/a
Int'l Refinery Input MBD 975 992 954 1,027 1,030 n/a
U.S. Branded Mogas Sales MBD 595 581 605 575 534 n/a
 

Chemicals (Source: CMAI)

Cents/lb
Ethylene Industry Cash Margin 7.96 17.97 19.64 11.33 11.83 12.88
HDPE Industry Contract Sales Margin 22.34 17.22 24.55 28.13 24.93 23.99
Styrene Industry Contract Sales Margin       11.09   10.25   12.29   10.13   11.54   11.80

Note: Prices, economics, and views expressed by CMAI are strictly the opinion of CMAI and Purvin & Gertz and are based on information collected within the public domain and on assessments by CMAI and Purvin & Gertz staff utilizing reasonable care consistent with normal industry practice. CMAI and Purvin & Gertz make no guarantee or warranty and assume no liability as to their use.

 

For the full fourth quarter, worldwide refining margins declined compared with third quarter 2010, with the exception of U.S. Gulf Coast. Marketing margins also declined, while chemical indicator margins were mixed.

During the first two months of the fourth quarter, U.S. refinery crude-input volumes decreased 32,000 barrels per day due to maintenance activities at multiple refineries. Outside the United States, refinery crude-input volumes were in-line with third quarter results.

U.S. downstream earnings in the fourth quarter are expected to include a gain of nearly $400 million from the previously announced sale of a minority interest in Colonial Pipeline Company.

ALL OTHER

The company's general guidance for the quarterly net after-tax charges related to corporate and other activities is between $250 million and $350 million. Due to foreign currency effects and the potential for irregularly occurring accruals related to income taxes, pension settlements and other matters, actual results may significantly differ from the guidance range.

NOTICE

Chevron's discussion of fourth quarter 2010 earnings with security analysts will take place on Friday, January 28, 2011, at 8:00 a.m. PST. A webcast of the meeting will be available in a listen-only mode to individual investors, media, and other interested parties on Chevron's website at www.chevron.com under the ?Investors? section. Additional financial and operating information will be contained in the Earnings Supplement that will be available under ?Events & Presentations? in the ?Investors? section on the website.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT RELEVANT TO FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
FOR THE PURPOSE OF "SAFE HARBOR'' PROVISIONS OF THE
PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995

This interim update of Chevron Corporation contains forward-looking statements relating to Chevron's operations that are based on management's current expectations, estimates and projections about the petroleum, chemicals and other energy-related industries. Words such as ?anticipates,? ?expects,? ?intends,? ?plans,? ?targets,? ?projects,? ?believes,? ?seeks,? ?schedules,? ?estimates,? ?budgets? and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond the company's control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. The reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this interim update. Unless legally required, Chevron undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: changing crude oil and natural gas prices; changing refining, marketing and chemical margins; actions of competitors or regulators; timing of exploration expenses; timing of crude oil liftings; the competitiveness of alternate-energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; the results of operations and financial condition of equity affiliates; the inability or failure of the company's joint venture partners to fund their share of operations and development activities; the potential failure to achieve expected net production from existing and future crude oil and natural gas development projects; potential delays in the development, construction or start-up of planned projects; the potential disruption or interruption of the company's net production or manufacturing facilities or delivery/transportation networks due to war, accidents, political events, civil unrest, severe weather or crude oil production quotas that might be imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; the potential liability for remedial actions or assessments under existing or future environmental regulations and litigation; significant investment or product changes under existing or future environmental statutes, regulations and litigation; the potential liability resulting from other pending or future litigation; the company's future acquisition or disposition of assets and gains and losses from asset dispositions or impairments; government-mandated sales, divestitures, recapitalizations, industry-specific taxes, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on scope of company operations; foreign currency movements compared with the U.S. dollar; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles promulgated by rule-setting bodies; and the factors set forth under the heading ?Risk Factors? on pages 30 through 32 of the company's 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K. In addition, such statements could be affected by general domestic and international economic and political conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this interim update could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.

For Chevron Corporation
Lloyd Avram, 925-842-3422