National Accounts Institute
2019-01-30
PRESS RELEASE
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General information
In the fourth quarter of 2018, economic activity picked up by 0.3 %
• First GDP estimate for 2018 points to a real growth rate of 1.4 %
1. Flash estimate1 of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2018
According to the National Accounts Institute (NAI), seasonally and calendar adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 % in volume terms in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter. In comparison to the corresponding quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 1.2 %.
For the year 2018 as a whole, a first provisional estimate suggests GDP has risen by 1.4 %.
2. Accounts for the third quarter of 2018
In the third quarter of 2018, seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP by volume rose by 0.3 % on the previous quarter. Value added was up in industry (+0.3 %) as well as construction (+0.4 %) and the services sector (+0.3 %).
Domestic demand, excluding inventories, fell by 0.1 %. Households reduced their consumption expenditure by 0.2 % and companies cut back their gross investment in fixed capital (-0.4 %). Several specific transactions relating to sales and purchases of ships to and from foreign countries exerted a downward influence on the trend in business investment. Without these exceptional transactions and the similar transaction in the previous quarter, growth of corporate investment in the third quarter would have come in at a positive figure of around 0.1 %. By contrast, households stepped up their investment in residential buildings by 0.5 % and government expenditure was also higher, in terms of consumption (+0.1 %) as well as investment (+0.3 %).
Conversely, foreign demand was up. Exports of goods and services rose by 1.4 %. Growth of imports of goods and services remained limited to 1.1 %, so net exports made a positive contribution to growth (+0.3 percentage point).
In the third quarter of 2018, domestic employment expanded by 15 000 persons (+0.3 %) on a quarterly basis and by 61 300 persons (+1.3 %) on an annual basis. These growth figures were primarily attributable to the increase in employment in services, and especially in business services, as well as to employment growth in health and care and in trade, transport and catering. Likewise, the volume of labour among wage-earners rose by 0.3 % compared with the previous quarter and by 1.4% compared with the same quarter of the year before.
1 The flash estimate of economic growth is compiled 30 days after the end of the quarter and is based on provisional indicators. This figure is adjusted 60 and 120 days after the end of the quarter on the basis of more detailed information that comes to light in the meantime.
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GRAPH 1
GDP AND THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Quarterly accounts, percentage year-on-year change in GDP in volume, calendar adjusted data (left-hand scale)
"Flash" estimate, idem (left-hand scale)
NBB's synthetic business survey curve, smoothed data (right-hand scale)
NBB's synthetic business survey curve, seasonally adjusted gross data (right-hand scale)
Source: NAI.
GDP, QUARTERLY GROWTH IN VOLUME
(data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
Percentage change compared to
corresponding quarter of the previous year previous quarter
2016 I
II
III
IV
2017 I
II
III
IV
2018 I
II
III
IV
1.4 0.2
1.6 0.7
1.6 0.2
1.4 0.3
1.9 0.7
1.5 0.4
1.5 0.2
1.9 0.7
1.5 0.3
1.4 0.3
1.6 0.3
1.2 0.3
GDP, ANNUAL GROWTH IN VOLUME
(percentage changes, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
2015 1.7
2016 1.5
2017 1.7
2018
1.4e
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Nationale Bank van België n.v.
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MAIN COMPONENTS
(percentage change in volume compared to the preceding period. data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
2016 | ||||||
IV | I | II | III | IV | I | |
1. Value added | ||||||
Industry | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Construction | -1.5 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Services | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
P.m. GDP | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
2. Expenditure | ||||||
Private consumption expenditure (1) | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Final consumption expenditure of general | ||||||
government | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Total gross fixed capital formation | -6.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Business | -9.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Housing | -0.6 | 0.6 | -0.9 | 0.1 | -1.3 | 1.0 |
Public administration | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Domestic demand (excl. changes in stocks) | -1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Changes in stocks (2) | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
Exports of goods and services | 2.7 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
Imports of goods and services | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2.8 | -0.1 |
Net exports of goods and services (2) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
3. Labour market | ||||||
Total number of workers | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Number of hours worked by employees | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
(1) Including non-profit institutions serving households. | ||||||
(2) Contribution to the change in GDP. | ||||||
Communicatie | ||||||
Nationale Bank van België n.v. |
2017 | 2018 |
II | III |
-0.5 | 0.3 |
0.6 | 0.4 |
0.5 | 0.3 |
0.3 | 0.3 |
0.2 | -0.2 |
0.4 | 0.1 |
0.1 | -0.2 |
-0.1 | -0.4 |
0.3 | 0.5 |
0.8 | 0.3 |
0.2 | -0.1 |
-0.3 | 0.1 |
0.7 | 1.4 |
0.2 | 1.1 |
0.4 | 0.3 |
0.3 | 0.3 |
0.3 | 0.3 |
de Berlaimontlaan 14 | tel. + 32 2 221 46 28 | BTW BE 0203.201.340 |
BE-1000 BRUSSEL | www.nbb.be | RPR Brussel |
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National Bank of Belgium published this content on 30 January 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 January 2019 19:03:00 UTC