AGF Management : This Week’s Big Issue — UPS Strike Threat; More Biden Disclosures

THIS WEEK'S FOMC MEETING, and the Jerome Powell press conference on Wednesday afternoon, obviously is a key issue for the markets, but we think there's a more important story this week: the UPS-Teamsters negotiations, which will resume on Tuesday.

THE MILITANT UNION SEEMS TO BE ITCHING FOR A WALKOUT: U.S. retailers are scrambling for carriers to ship their products, as the strike deadline looms on July 31 with a strike becoming more likely on Aug. 1. It could take a week or two for workers to ratify a contract, which makes a relatively short strike likely - at the least.

TOUGH GUY SEAN O'BRIEN, the union president, said this weekend that "UPS is going to throw this country into recession." If that occurs, "that's on UPS, not us," O'Brien says. The union seems to be eager for a walkout, even though most issues have been resolved; the key remaining issue is pay and benefits for part-time workers.

THE THREAT OF LABOR UNREST has spread to several sectors of the economy. Auto workers may strike in September, American Airlines workers want a huge rase, like the United Airlines package, and the Hollywood strike has created a ripple effect throughout southern California, where hotel workers will continue sporadic walkouts.

THIS POSES A DILEMMA for Joe Biden and the Fed. For the unabashedly pro-labor Biden, he's been told by union leaders to butt out of the talks and not consider invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which would force workers to return to their jobs. For the Fed, a prolonged UPS strike - which would be the biggest U.S. walkout in decades - would make the central bankers reluctant to raise rates again after this week's near-certain fed funds rate hike.
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DID JOE BIDEN HELP HIS SON WIN BUSINESS DEALS? The President insists that he did not, but more disclosures apparently are coming this week. The New York Post, not the most reliable source, reports this morning that a participant in alleged phone calls will testify before Congress that Hunter Biden brought his dad into phone conference calls with Chinese and Ukrainian businessmen to help close deals.

THESE DISCLOSURES FOLLOW assertions by IRS whistleblowers that the Justice Department hindered their investigation into Hunter Biden's business dealings. It's an article of faith among Republicans that President Biden was part of a lucrative business arrangement with his son, and they cite tapes and witnesses.

THESE ALLEGATIONS WILL PERSIST, with the right wing angry and the left wing paying little attention. There's a remote possibility that the House will impeach Biden, but there's no chance that he would be convicted in the Senate. This is a life preserver for Donald Trump - as his indictments pile up, he can cite lax oversight of the Biden family.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

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