S&P 500 : Expecting quarterly earnings
By Rodolphe Steffan
While many market makers were concerned about the global economic slowdown, the unemployment rate dropped below 8% for the month of September. The rate is now 7.8%, its lowest level since early 2009. Job creations remain above 100 000 which is the level needed to stabilize unemployment according to several analysts. However, the index fell back at the end of Friday session and closed flat. Investors fear especially disappointing earnings for the third quarter.
According to analysts at Thomson Reuters, profits of SP500 companies have fallen 2.4% in the third quarter. Investors fear that they confirm their gloomy forecasts for the end of the year. The "High Tech" sector will be especially monitored. Its growth should be strongly reduced due to the slowdown in China since the middle of the year. Many analysts worry that companies can no longer cut spending already very low to ensure better income than expected.
Technically, the trend remains bullish in weekly data. The index marked an important daily resistance around 1470 points. A weekly close above this level would maintain the trend in place since last July. On the downside, a daily close below 1450 points which refers to the 20-day moving average would open the way to a retracement towards 1420 points and then to a new trading range (1420-1470). We will be able to trade the exit of this range in using S&P 500 futures (code : ESXXXX on CME E-mini).