The Paris Bourse has reduced its lead from +0.7% to +0.3/+0.4% since the publication of retail sales figures, which showed a slight downturn in the USA in October (-0.1%).

The CAC40, which rose this morning to 7,245 points, is now hovering around 7,210 points... but in volumes up +300% (3.3 billion euros versus an average of 1.1 to 1.2 billion euros around 5 p.m. during the previous 10 sessions.

The index continued to be driven by Worldline and St Gobain (+2.8%), STMicro (+5.5%), but was penalized by Alstom, which gave up almost 16%.

Wall Street was very calm, but remained firmly in its most vertical uptrend observed since the period March 15 to 30, 2022 (with 13 out of 15 sessions up... including one horizontal consolidation), with a cumulative gain of +12.5%.

US indices continue to be buoyed by the enthusiasm triggered yesterday by inflation figures (-0.5% in October)... but several 'components' of this index compiled by the Labor Department recorded a totally unexpected, indeed inexplicable, fall, which dragged down overall inflation, more than is logically the result of the sharp fall in pump prices in October.

JPMorgan's strategists warn: "While it is true that the moderation in growth is moving in the right direction, rate hikes remain a possibility in a context where inflation is likely to remain high in the months ahead".

On the statistics front, the agenda was very dense on Wednesday: US retail sales fell by 0.1% in October compared with the previous month (+0.9%).

Excluding automobiles and fuels - the component of the statistics that best corresponds to the measure of consumption used to calculate GDP - retail sales rose by 0.1%.
Automobile sales were down by 1% in October compared with September, while gas station sales were down by 0.3%.

The positive surprise came from the local Fed's Empire State index, which climbed +14pts to a positive 9.1 in November.

New orders continued to fall slightly, while deliveries recovered. Labor market indicators point to a slight decline in employment and the average working week.

But beware: the 'outlook' has fallen sharply, with companies no longer expecting conditions to improve over the next six months.

There were also plenty of 'stats' in Europe: CVS industrial production fell by -1.1% in the Eurozone and by -0.9% in the EU, according to estimates from Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

In September 2023, compared with September 2022, industrial production fell by 6.9% in the Eurozone and by 6.1% in the EU.

Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2023, compared with +0.8% previously estimated.

Also in France, consumer prices rose by 4% over 12 months in October 2023, following an annual rate of 4.9% in September, according to Insee, which thus confirms its provisional estimates unveiled at the end of last month.

Furthermore, according to Insee, in the third quarter of 2023, the ILO unemployment rate rose by 0.2 points to 7.4% of the working population in France (excluding Mayotte).

Including all categories, the overall rate of underemployment remains very high compared with the European average, at 16.9%.

Finally, UK inflation fell in October to its lowest level since 2021, bringing it closer to the Bank of England's target and giving consumers some breathing space.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) fell back to 4.6% last month, slightly better than the consensus forecast (+4.7%), after having risen to 6.7% in September.

Bond markets are adjusting in the wake of a spectacular easing in yields: T-Bonds (-15Pts on Tuesday) are back up +8Pts to 4.522%.

Our OATs are up +3pts to 3.1900% and Bunds +2.5pts to 2.6250%, while Italian BTPs remain stable at 4.415%.

On the FOREX side, the dollar, which was literally smashed the day before with -1.7%, is clawing back +0.1% against the euro, which is crumbling towards 1.0870.
Lastly, oil is down -0.8% to $81.7 in London, following the publication of a +3.6Mn increase in US crude oil inventories (to 439.4Mn barrels in the week to November 6).
Distillate inventories - including heating oil - were down by 1.4Mn barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.5Mn barrels, again compared with the previous week, the agency continues.

Finally, the EIA states that refineries operated at 86.1% of their operational capacity during the same week, with an average production of 9.4 million barrels/day.

In French company news, Alstom lost nearly 18% to 11.6E after announcing this morning that it was working on a global operational, commercial and cost-efficiency plan, including a reduction of around 1,500 FTE (full-time equivalent), or nearly 10% of commercial and administrative functions.

In a strategy presentation devoted to Ampere, Renault sets out its objectives for this electric vehicle and software company, which it plans to float on the stock market in the first half of 2024, while retaining a strong majority stake.

Finally, Oddo BHF maintains its 'underperform' rating on Orpea shares, with a price target reduced from 0.5 to 0.025 euros, following the Commercial Court's validation of CDC's capital increase. The broker indicates that he wants to remain "on the sidelines"... but Orpéa jumps +45% to 0.70E (ex subscription rights, detached on Monday).




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