By Paulo Trevisani


--Wheat for September delivery rose 1%, to $6.33 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, as tensions on the Black Sea rose after an Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.8%, to $4.97 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.6%, to $13.33 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Costly Insurance: Grains markets were concerned that Russian exports could get pricier after a Ukrainian naval drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk last night. It followed last month's Russian attacks on Ukrainian port and grain terminals. AgResource said in a report that insurers were looking at raising fees or exiting the Black Sea because of the escalating sea battles. "Ukraine's use of sea drones and Russia's use of airborne drones and mines...are quickly adding to the transit risk to Black Sea [grain] trade," the firm said.

Russian Assurance: AgResource said in a report that Russian exporters are telling customers they will be able to manage future marine attacks. AgResource said that "ahead of a weekend, no one wants to push the green panic button until there is clarity on whether the war is expanding into the shipping lanes of the Black Sea." Meanwhile, AgResource said the U.S. cash soymeal market "stays tight amid strong domestic demand and slowing U.S. crush due to plant maintenance."


INSIGHT


Scarce Grains: The world's wheat supply will remain low, supporting prices for a while, Capital Economics analysts said in a report. "We expect the wheat market to be in a deep deficit this year," they said. "Heatwaves in Europe, North America and China will reduce yields and the dry conditions associated with El Niño point to lower output in Australia and Asia." The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also expected to reduce supplies. Capital Economics expects wheat prices to rise but stay below 2022 highs. Corn and soybeans production isn't expected to suffer as much and could even benefit from El Niño weather. Capital Economics forecasts a decline on prices for both grains.

Beans Struggle: Soybean futures keep struggling to rise back to the $14-a-bushel level it lost last week. ADM's Steve Freed noted in a report that weekly new crop exports "were better than expected due to increased China buying." He also pointed out that "U.S. board crush margins are high due to increased soymeal exports and higher domestic soyoil use," while July Malaysian production is estimated to be up 9%. "There is talk that Ukraine oilseed crops could be up," 14% from last year, Freed said.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The US Drought Monitor will release its updated map at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-04-23 1524ET