By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for May delivery fell 1.8%, to $6.67 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with traders unwilling to tack risk premium onto prices despite Russia's threats to pull out of the Black Sea exporting deal.
--Corn for May delivery fell 0.5% to $6.53 a bushel.
--Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.1% to $15.03 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Passing Along: Trader's concerns about Russia potentially ending the Black Sea Grains Initiative - which drove wheat higher earlier this week - appear to have subsided, allowing prices to slip lower. "Falling wheat prices indicate that Black Sea worries are easing again for now, until the next headline comes across," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. This week, Russia has indicated it may end its deal allowing for Ukrainian grain shipments to leave their ports on May 18, citing barriers on Russian food and fertilizer shipments. However, Russian officials have made similar threats ahead of previous extensions of the deal.
Moving Quickly: Indications that optimal weather is allowing for quick planting progress in the Corn Belt was also a pressure point for grain futures. "The rapid planting pace of both corn and soybeans will be a bearish influence on values, even the old crop contracts," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. Warm weather in the coming weeks is expected to allow planting to continue in full force - although Mr. Hoops notes that dryness in winter wheat-growing areas may lift wheat futures, as those conditions remain dismal due to lingering drought in those areas.
INSIGHT
Needing Direction: Grain traders say that they lack a clear direction for making their moves amid light fresh news. "Overall, this just appears to be generally directionless spring trade waiting for something new for a stimulus," said Dan Hueber of the Hueber Report. Mr. Hueber notes that a lower U.S. dollar appears to be providing some support for grains. However, traders today say that projections for higher Brazilian crop production is a pressure point for grains.
Turning Over: The world climate is expected to transition into El Niño later this spring into the summer, said the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The NOAA says that there's a 62% chance the climate will transition from neutral to El Niño in May through July. The transition into an El Niño climate comes late in the planting season for U.S. farmers. As of now, weather in the Corn Belt is expected to support strong progress in planting in the coming weeks.
AHEAD
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-13-23 1515ET
