By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.3%, to $7.42 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, oscillating between higher and lower for the day on new projections of record Russian wheat exports.
--Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.5% to $15.22 1/2 a bushel.
--Corn for March delivery fell 0.2% to $6.77 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Record Forecast: Russia is forecast to export a record-high 21.3 million metric tons of wheat in the first half of 2023, according to a new outlook from SovEcon - with total exports for the 2022/23 marketing year predicted to hit a record 44.1 million tons. "Active shipments, backed by a bumper Russia's crop, are likely to put pressure on global prices," said the firm.
Risky Business: The potential for further crop degradation in Argentina provided soybeans with some support today, although it did not last. "The market continues to put weather risk premium in the soybean price with little improvement in the Argentina weather forecast," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. However, he added, the Brazilian soybean crop looks to stay strong, limiting the amount of upside left in the Argentine outlook.
INSIGHTS
Rising Tide: Thursday's monthly WASDE report from the USDA is expected to show higher stockpiles of U.S. grains, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. They forecast corn stockpiles at 1.3 billion bushels, soybean stocks at 236 million bushels, and wheat stocks at 582 million bushels. All three of these figures are higher than those given by the USDA in its December report. However, world stocks of corn and soybeans are expected to turn lower, while global wheat stocks are expected to build.
Lagging Pace: Export inspections for U.S. corn have fallen back from last week's figure, and are well behind the pace from this time last year. In its latest grain export inspections report, the USDA said corn export inspections totaled 397,585 metric tons for the week ended Jan. 5, versus 683,042 tons last week and 1.02 million tons at this point last year. The pace of export inspections in the 2022/23 marketing year is well off from the previous year - with inspections totaling just below 10 million tons since the marketing year started in September. That's off 29% from last year.
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
--The USDA will release its monthly world supply and demand report at noon ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-09-23 1512ET
