By
|
|
| This week's gainers and losers |
Gainers: XP Inc (+28%) is the week's top gainer. The Nasdaq-listed Brazilian investment management company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, driven by a 105% increase in institutional clients. Shockwave Medical (+16%): Good momentum for the US medical device group, which already significantly improved its financial position this year. It announced that its intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) technology will benefit from improved reimbursement rates. Polestar Automotive (+15%): The Nasdaq-listed Swedish carmaker reported deliveries up nearly 26% in the first quarter. It therefore reiterates its annual target, with global volumes expected to rise by 60% by 2023. The group also announced the unveiling of its new model, the Polestar 4, on April 18 in China. Coinbase (+12%): The crypto-currency exchange platform is benefiting from the recent rise in digital assets after the unexpected drop in US producer prices and an increase in recession fears, since they're considered a safe haven for many investors. Losers: Sarepta Therapeutics (-12%): This US medical research and drug development company has been dealt a blow. The FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) is reportedly set to reject the group's gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, which is currently under review. Baidu (-8%): The Chinese search engine giant announced this week that it is suing Apple and other app developers for allegedly fraudulent copies of its Ernie bot, which is supposed to rival ChatGPT. The group also fears the arrival of Alibaba's artificial intelligence chatbot. Finally, the United States is reportedly preparing an offensive to curb American investment in Chinese AI. American Airlines (-8%): The airline disappointed investors by posting lower than expected quarterly revenue and profit forecasts. The group also announced the suspension of two US-China routes due to weak demand in that market. Analysts remain cautious on the stock, and Susquehanna has revised its price target downwards. |
|
| Commodities |
| Energy: The mood is still up. The two main global oil benchmarks are set to end the week higher, sealing their fourth consecutive positive weekly sequence. Brent crude is trading around USD 86 while the US WTI briefly surpassed its yearly high by trading above USD 83. The rise is being driven by the China/OPEC duo: China, which is demonstrating that it is accelerating its reopening through dynamic imports and exports, and OPEC, which is further suffocating global supply through its production cuts. For natural gas in Europe, the Rotterdam FTT is treading water at around EUR 41/MWh. Metals: Gold continues to climb to USD 2030 per ounce. Falling inflation in the US, which is helping to dampen bond yields, is doing gold buyers a favour. In its latest monthly note, the World Gold Council reported that ETFs backed by physical gold saw strong net inflows last month, boosted by the banking crisis, a weakening dollar and falling bond yields. On the industrial metals side, prices have generally given way. Copper is trading at around USD 8800 per tonne, while aluminium is trading at USD 2260. Agricultural products: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised US wheat stocks to 598 million bushels from 568 million bushels due to deteriorating demand. Wheat prices weakened in Chicago to 675 cents a bushel while corn rose slightly to 660 cents. |
|
| Macroeconomics |
Atmosphere: Investors were not impressed by the macroeconomic and geopolitical news of the week. They reacted only slightly to the announcement of China's encirclement of Taiwan and the US inflation figures for March. The French CAC40 even broke its all-time high three sessions in a row. The US price increase was 5% year-on-year, which was slightly below expectations but still high. Core inflation, which does not take into account the rise in energy and food prices, reached 0.4% in March on a monthly basis and 5.6% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. However, this represents a slight increase from the 5.5% recorded in February. Prices are still on the rise and possible rate hikes may still be on the cards. Currencies: Due to the ECB's tightening policy, the euro is appreciating against the US dollar. The EUR/USD is currently trading at USD 1.1064, after reaching a one-year high of USD 1.1075. The US currency is under pressure against currencies that are still benefiting from rising rates, while economic data is weakening with a drop in the DYX index. The kiwi remains stable at around USD 0.629. In addition, the euro continues to lose ground against the Swiss franc at CHF 0.9822. Rates: Data released this week seems to confirm that inflation and the labour market are slowing in the US. Investors are betting that the Fed will raise its key rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May. US 10Y bond yields are slightly higher at 3.4356%. The spread with German bonds at the same maturity is at its lowest for over two years. In addition, Asian bonds have received the largest inflow of foreign capital in over a year in recent days. This is due to investors' expectations of expansionary monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin is up more than 8.5% since Monday, and is back above the psychological $30,000 mark at the time of writing. Ether, meanwhile, is clearly outperforming the leader, surging more than 12% over the same period to hover around the $2100 mark. Cryptocurrencies are riding a wave of enthusiasm with the market anticipating improved economic conditions in the coming months. While bitcoin is up 86% year-to-date, it is still 54% below its all-time high of $69,000 from November 2021. Calendar: Several economic statistics are expected next week, starting with the Empire State Manufacturing Index published by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday, the evolution of job seekers in England as well as the Canadian inflation index on Tuesday, the English inflation index on Wednesday, the American unemployment claims on Thursday and finally the American, English, German and French manufacturing and services PMI on Friday. On the corporate side, earnings season has begun. Next week we will be watching the results of Charles Schwab, State Street, J.B. Hunt (Monday), Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, Prologis (Tuesday), ASML, Abbott Laboratories, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Lam Research (Wednesday), Philip Morris International, American Express, Rio Tinto, Intuitive Surgical (Thursday), P&G, SAP, China Mobile and Honeywell (Friday). |
|
|
| Things to read this week | ||||||
|
|
*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
