WBMS World Bureau of Metal Statistics : Press Release January 2021

WBMS Press Release January 2021
20/01/2021

January to November 2020 METALS BALANCES

Please note that the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic has had a dramatic effect on both the supply and demand for metals worldwide. The true impact of the lockdown in many countries will emerge over the next few months. Demand for most countries is calculated on an apparent basis. Metal shipments are in transit for some weeks and stock levels are under reported and so it is likely that the demand for all metals will be overstated for the next few months.

Primary aluminium market in surplus in January to November 2020

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to November 2020 was a surplus of 2081 kt which follows a surplus of 448 kt recorded for the whole of 2019. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2020 was 59.11 million tonnes, 583 kt less than in the comparable period in 2019. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics. Production in January to November 2020 rose by 2 per cent. Total reported stocks fell in November to close at the end of the period 100 kt below the December 2019 level. Shanghai stocks rose steadily in the early months, fell in the second quarter and closed at the end of November at 220.4 kt. This compares with 185.1 at the end of December 2019. LME stocks were 1368 kt at the end of November 2020 which compares with 1473 kt at the end of 2019. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production rose in January to November 2020 by 2 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2019. Chinese output was estimated at 33,790 kt based on higher availability of imported bauxite and alumina, and this currently accounts for about 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 6.6 per cent higher than in January to November 2019 and the output of semi-manufactures rose by 8.8 per cent. China became a net importer of unwrought aluminium in 2020. During January to November 2020 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 3876 kt which compares with 4394 kt for January to November 2019. Exports of semi manufactures fell by 10 per cent compared with the January to November 2019 total.

Production for January to November in the EU28 was 0.5 per cent lower than the previous year and NAFTA output increased by 4.2 per cent. EU28 demand was 1172 kt lower than the comparable 2019 total. Global demand fell by 1.0 per cent during January to November 2020 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In November primary aluminium production was 5709.0 kt and demand was 5458.6 kt.

Copper market in deficit in January to November 2020

The copper market recorded a deficit of 1203 kt in January to November 2020 which follows a deficit of 383 kt in the whole of 2019. Reported stocks at the end of November 2020 were 11 kt lower than at the end of December 2019. Net deliveries into LME warehouses were 5.2 kt and Comex stocks increased by 37.8 kt. Shanghai stocks fell by 30.7 kt during the eleven month period. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to November 2020 was 18.96 million tonnes which was 0.1 per cent higher than in the same period in 2019. Global refined production for January to November 2020 was 21.77 million tonnes up 2.0 per cent compared with the previous year with significant increases recorded in China (up 902 kt) and in Chile (up 72 kt).

Global demand for January to November 2020 was 22.97 million tonnes compared with 21.77 million tonnes for the same months of 2019. Chinese apparent demand for the period January to November 2020 was 13.45 million tonnes which was 16.6 per cent higher than the first eleven months of 2019. Reported output of semi manufactures rose by 8.6 per cent which suggests that the apparent demand figure overstates real demand. EU28 production rose by 3 per cent and demand was 187 kt lower than the comparable 2019 total.

In November 2020, refined copper production was 2141.5 kt and demand was 2179.5 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to November 2020

The lead market recorded a deficit of 86 kt in January to November 2020 which follows a deficit of 264 kt recorded in the whole of 2019. Total stocks at the end of November were 37.6 kt higher than at the end of 2019. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

World refined production during January to November 2020 from both primary and secondary sources was 11969 kt which was 3.9 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2019. Chinese apparent demand was estimated at 5759 kt which was 420 kt higher than the comparable period in 2019 and represented about 48 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 101 kt for January to November 2020 compared to the same months of 2019.

In November 2020, refined lead production was 1206.8 kt and demand was 1228.4 kt.

Zinc market records surplus in January to November 2020

The zinc market was in surplus by 356 kt during January to November 2020 which compares with a deficit of 76 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks increased by 191 kt during January to November which included a net increase in Shanghai of 28.1 kt over the period. LME stocks rose over the January to November period to close 169 kt above the December 2019 level. LME stocks represent 33 per cent of the global total with the bulk of the metal held in Asian and US warehouses. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

Global refined production rose by 0.9 per cent and demand was 2.7 per cent lower than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese apparent demand was, at 344.6 kt, 27 per cent below the equivalent total for January to November 2019.

World demand was 340 kt lower than for January to November 2019. Chinese apparent demand was 6289 kt which is 52 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In November 2020 slab zinc production was 1202.8 kt and demand 1214.5 kt.

Nickel market records surplus in January to November 2020

The nickel market was in surplus during January to November 2020 with production exceeding apparent demand by 53.6 kt. In the whole of 2019, the calculated deficit was 27.6 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November 2020 were 88.2 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November 2020 totalled 2190.8 kt and demand was 2137.2 kt.

Mine production during January to November was 2078.8 kt, 285 kt below the comparable 2019 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output fell by 120 kt compared with 2019 and apparent demand was 1186.6 kt, 11 kt lower than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 99 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

In November 2020, nickel smelter/refinery production was 210.2 kt and demand was 217.4 kt.

Tin market records deficit in January to November 2020

The tin market recorded a deficit of 16.9 kt during January to November 2020 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Chinese demand is calculated on an apparent basis using reported stocks on the Shanghai exchange. Total reported stocks were 7.3 kt lower than at the end of 2019. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

Global reported production of refined metal was down by 8 kt, compared with the January to November 2019 total. Apparent demand in China was 17.7 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to November 2020 was 348.0 kt which was 2.9 per cent higher than the comparable period of 2019. Japanese demand was 18.8 kt which was 19 per cent below the comparable total for January to November 2019.

In November 2020, refined production was 30.9 kt and consumption was 33.1 kt

Dated 20th January 2021

- ENDS-

The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics January 2021 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at [e-mail] or by telephone [phone]

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