Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból (2021.01.21-27.)

NEMZETKÖZI SZEMELVÉNYEK

Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból

2021. január 21. - 27.

	TARTALOMJEGYZÉK
1.	MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...................................................................................................	3
2.	PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK ....................................................................................	4
3.	MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS...................................................................	7
4.	FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA..........................................................	9
5.	ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS ...........................................................................	10
6.	PÉNZFORGALOM, FIZETÉSI RENDSZEREK.....................................................................................	12
7.	MAKROGAZDASÁG .......................................................................................................................	13
8.	ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA ................................................................................................	14
9.	KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .............................................................................................	17
10.	SZANÁLÁS......................................................................................................................................	18
11.	STATISZTIKA ..................................................................................................................................	18

2

1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2021/html/ecb.is210121~e601112a72.en.html	Speech
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main,
21 January 2021
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 22 January 2021, 26/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2021/html/ecb.fst210126.en.html	Press Release
Commentary:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2021/html/ecb.fs210126.en.html
Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates),	ECB
22/01/2021	Press Release
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/otherdec/2021/html/ecb.gc210122~f755ee8087.en.html
Letter from the ECB President to Mr Derk Jan Eppink, MEP, on ECB communication, 22/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.mepletter210122_Eppink~b42eabd54b.en.pdf?87e7	Letter
424350f7bb8fb2dd76c41cc66cb3
Letter from the ECB President to Mr Chris MacManus, MEP, on ECB communication, 22/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.mepletter210122_MacManus_1~4f4efccba5.en.pdf?	Letter
518a0e296883e717abf2cca3becdfd5c
Monetary policy decisions, 21/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.mp210121~eb9154682e.en.html	Press Release
Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks, 25/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2513~4cb2b39c14.en.pdf?09372b9463f8b6211f	Publication
4e44345376f4b9
The authors build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of
US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, they admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks
from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the
endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, they find that US interest rate
uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output,
inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, they document strong global impacts, making the world
move in a very synchronous way. Crucially, spillback effects are found to be significant even for the US
economy.
Keywords: US monetary policy; volatility shocks; uncertainty; global economy.
(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt, 27/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/swp2021-5.pdf	Research Hub
	Working Paper
The authors propose a framework of optimal monetary policy where debt sustainability may, or may
not, be a relevant constraint for the central bank. They show analytically that in each environment the
optimal interest rate path consists of a Taylor rule augmented with forward guidance terms. These
terms arise either i) from "twisting interest rates" when the central bank ensures debt sustainability, or
ii) under no debt concerns, from committing to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap.
The optimal policy is isomorphic to Leeper's (1991) "passive monetary/active fiscal policy" regime in
the first instance, or "active monetary/passive fiscal policy" regime in the second.
Keywords: monetary policy; monetary policy framework; fiscal policy; economic models.

3

Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds, 21/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/swp2021-3.pdf	Research Hub
	Working Paper
Given China's complex monetary policy framework, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary
policy rule is difficult to infer from its observed behaviour. This paper adopts a novel approach, using
text analytics to estimate and interpret the unknown component in the PBOC's reaction function. This
paper extracts the unknown component in a McCallum-type monetary policy rule for China through a
state-space model framework using a set of summary topics extracted from official PBOC documents.
Then, using a set of sectional topics extracted from the same set of PBOC documents, it provides this
component with its rightful interpretation.
Keywords: monetary policy communications; monetary policy framework; econometric and statistical
methods; international topics.
Beware rising neutral rates, 26/01/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/outlook-2021-beware-rising-neutral-	Commentary
rates/?utm_source=omfifupdate
The US military has traditionally attempted to stand prepared to fight two major wars at once. In that
spirit, economic policy-makers should consider challenging scenarios in the pandemic recovery, even
ones that are not supposed to happen according to certain models. One scenario worth attention is a
rising neutral rate of interest amid unrest, turmoil and poor economic activity. If central banks do not
respond to rising neutral rates with hikes, then inflation or disruptive late tightening would follow.
The Bank of England nearly financed the deficit. Does it matter? 22/01/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/the-bank-of-england-nearly-financed-the-deficit-does-it-	Commentary
matter/?utm_source=omfifupdate
When the UK government announced a rise in the amount it could borrow from the Ways and Means
facility, a slew of articles on monetary financing followed. The question over monetary financing is
interesting but largely irrelevant. The real question is whether fiscal sustainability will begin to encroach
on an independent MPC that targets inflation. So far, the institutional framework has stood firm, but if
it starts to give way, it may not be obvious.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

Letter from the ECB President to Mr Gunnar Beck, MEP, on financial stability, 22/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.mepletter210122_Beck~88f4d62468.en.pdf?eacba3c	Letter
4b3839067aa7c3412a747b07b
Risk aversion and bank loan pricing, 26/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2514~43564dfc3d.en.pdf?aa2a5bd3fa19c72367	Publication
5a90aeb5d3e52e
How much of the heterogeneity in bank loan pricing is explained by disparities in banks' attitude towards
risk? The answer to this question is not simple because there are only very weak proxies for gauging the
degree of a bank's risk aversion. The authors handle this constraint by means of a novel econometric
approach that allows us to disentangle the amount of risk faced by banks and the price they charge for
holding that risk. Some of these results are aligned with previous studies and confirm that disparities in
market power, banks' funding costs, and banks' funding risks are reflected in bank lending rates.
Keywords: bank loan pricing; risk aversion

4