New York, January 26, 2016 - S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.3% annual increase in November 2015 versus a 5.1% increase in October 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.3% in the year to November compared to 5.0% previously. The 20-City Composite's year-over-year gain was 5.8% versus 5.5% reported in October.
Portland, San Francisco and Denver continue to report the highest year over year gains among the 20 cities with another month of double digit annual price increases. Portland led the way with an 11.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with 11.0% and Denver with a 10.9% increase. Fourteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2015 versus the year ending October 2015. Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases, reporting a gain of 5.9% in November 2015, and the twelfth consecutive increase in annual price gains. Detroit posted a 6.3% year-over-year price, up from 5.1%, the largest annual increase this month.
Month-over-Month
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1% month-over-month in November. The 10- City Composite was unchanged and the 20-City Composite reported gains of 0.1% month-over-month in November. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, along with the 10-City and 20-City Composites, all increased 0.9% month-over-month in November. Fourteen of 20 cities reported increases in November before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities increased for the month.
Analysis
"Home prices extended their gains, supported by continued low mortgage rates, tight supplies and an improving labor market," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Sales of existing homes were up 6.5% in 2015 vs. 2014, and the number of homes on the market averaged about a 4.8 months' supply during the year; both numbers suggest a seller's market. The consumer portion of the economy is doing well; like housing, automobile sales were quite strong last year. Other parts of the economy are not faring as well. Businesses in the oil and energy sectors are suffering from the 75% drop in oil prices in the last 18 months. Moreover, the strong U.S. dollar is slowing exports. Housing is not large enough to offset all of these weak spots.
"Home prices continue to recover from the collapse that began before the recession of 2007-2009 and continued until 2012. Three cities - Dallas, Denver and Portland OR - have reached new all-time highs; San Francisco is even with its earlier peak and Charlotte NC is less than one percent below its previous peak. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is about 4.8% below the peak it set in July 2006, and 29.2% above the bottom it
touched in January 2012. By comparison, the S&P 500 as of Friday, January 22nd is up 46% from January 2012 - better than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price series and about the same as Los Angeles. The chart shows how far the 20 cities have rebounded from the National Index bottom.
CA-San Francisco
NV-Las Vegas AZ-Phoenix FL-Miami
CA-Los Angeles GA-Atlanta MI-Detroit CA-San Diego OR-Portland WA-Seattle CO-Denver FL-Tampa
TX-Dallas MN-Minneapolis National-US
NC-Charlotte MA-Boston IL-Chicago
DC-Washington
OH-Cleveland NY-New York
Data through November 2015
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4%
4%
U.S. National
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
Percent change, year ago
Percent change, year ago
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.3% annual gain in November 2015. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year- over-year increases of 5.3% and 5.8%.
24% 24%
20%
20%
20-City Composite
16%
16%
10-City Composite
12%
12%
8%
8%
-12%
-12%
-16%
-16%
-20%
-20%
-24% -24%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices & CoreLogic
This chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of November 2015, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their winter 2007 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 11-13%. Since the March 2012 lows, the 10-City and 20-City Composites have recovered 34.9% and 36.4%.
250
250
20-City Composite
225
225
200 200
175 175
National
150
150
125
10-City Composite
125
100 100
75 75
50 50
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
S&P - Standard & Poor's issued this content on 26 January 2016 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 26 January 2016 14:44:06 UTC
Original Document: http://www.spindices.com/documents/indexnews/announcements/20160126-294746/294746_cshomeprice-release-0126.pdf
