The bond markets are facing a sudden downturn in the wake of very robust PMI indices published in the United States (leading indicators of activity higher than expected).
Yields jump by +13 to +14pts on Bunds to 2.422% and our OATs to 2.9400%, while Italian BTPs climb by +12.5pts to 3.80%: a surge that follows a 6-month high for oil, with a barrel of Brent crude at $88.3 (in London), and WTI making a foray above $85 (on the NYMEX).
On the statistics front, in France, the PMI HCOB buyers' index for manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, came in at 46.2 in March: down on February's eleven-month high (47.1), it highlights a sharp deterioration in the sector's economic situation.

Meanwhile, at 46.1 in March, the HCOB PMI for eurozone manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, was down on February (46.5) to its lowest level for three months.

This downturn was due to the movement in supplier delivery times and purchasing inventories, while production saw its smallest decline since April 2023 and the fall in new orders slowed for a fifth consecutive month.

In the US, after falling by 3.8% in January (revised from an initial estimate of -3.6%), orders to US industry recovered by 1.4% in February 2024, according to the Commerce Department.

Deliveries by US industry also rose by 1.4% in February compared with the previous month. Finally, with inventories up 0.3%, the inventory-to-delivery ratio fell from 1.49 to 1.47 month-on-month.

Markets will be paying close attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on the economic outlook on Wednesday at a forum organized by Stanford University (California).

Across the Channel, Gilts exploded +17pts to 4.13%, their worst level since March 1!


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