The results from the Export Situation Survey for the fourth quarter of 2012 (prepared by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Competition) show favourable performance among the most important variables.

There was a rise in the percentage of companies reporting increases in their portfolio of export orders in the period (26.9%, with an increase of 4.6%). The Synthetic Index of Export Activity (ISAE) also rose by 4.9% from -3.9% in the third quarter of 2012 to a positive 1% in the fourth quarter of the year due to the perception of export activity and the forecasts at three and twelve months.These figures were also improvements.

The data from the survey reflect an increase in the Synthetic Index of Export Activity (ISAE)*, which now stands at 1% and is almost 5% higher than the figure recorded in the previous quarter (-3.9% in the third quarter of 2012)

All sectors posted positive figures in the fourth quarter of 2012, except for non-chemical semi-manufactured products and automotive products, although the latter posted a 10.1% improvement in its Synthetic Index of Export Activity (ISAE) value. The sectors posting the largest increases were food (up 14% to 22.5%) and raw materials (up 10.9% to 12.2%).

Based on export volume, significant ISAE improvements can be seen in companies with an export volume of between 0.6 and 3 million euros (up 11.6% in the fourth quarter compared with an increase of 6.6% in the third quarter); in companies with an export volume of between 3 and 15 million euros (up 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared with growth of 1.7% in the previous quarter) and in companies with an export volume of more than 15 million euros (down 2.2% in the fourth quarter compared with a decline of 7.7% in the previous quarter). A lower ISAE was reported by companies with a lower volume of exports, i.e. between 0.03 and 0.6 million euros (up 2.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 4.1% in the previous quarter).

*The ISAE is an indicator that summarises the information provided by the companies consulted for the survey on the development of their portfolio of export orders in the quarter subject to study, as well as their outlooks regarding these exports at three and twelve months.

This indicator ranges from -100 to +100, so that positive values indicate an improved outlook for export activity and/or forecasts regarding the future development of these values by the companies participating in the survey, and vice-versa.

There was a noticeable increase in the percentage of companies reporting a positive outlook for their portfolio of orders. The percentage of companies that believe their portfolio of orders has remained stable is declining and the percentage of companies that believe their portfolio of orders has shrunk remains almost unchanged when compared with the previous quarter.

The percentage of companies that reported a growing portfolio of orders rose by 4.6% compared with the third quarter, and now stands at 26.9%. The percentage of companies reporting a decline in their portfolio of orders remained practically unchanged from the third quarter, at 34.9% of companies consulted, 0.1% less than in the previous quarter.

As regards sector-based order portfolio performance, the percentage of companies reporting growth in their portfolio of orders during the fourth quarter is significantly higher in the food sector (46.3%) and in the raw materials sector (36.1%). These percentages represent a growth of 18.7% and 19.9%, respectively. The long-lasting consumer goods sector also posted a significantly higher percentage of companies reporting increased order portfolio activity (37.6%).

As regards order portfolio performance based on company size, the percentage of companies that believe their portfolio of orders has grown in the fourth quarter rose among all size brackets. Meanwhile, the percentage of companies that believe it will remain stable has fallen. On the other hand, there was a lower number of responses reporting negative growth in the two intermediate size brackets.

Expectations at three months as well as expectations at twelve months improved on the previous quarter, though expectations at twelve months improved more dramatically.

When compared with the previous quarter, the percentage of companies expecting their portfolio of orders to grow in the next three months increased by 1.1% to 30.2%. Furthermore, the percentage of companies that believe their portfolio of orders will shrink in the short term fell by 5.1% to 23.2%.

Expectations with regard to order portfolios at twelve months reported in the fourth quarter improved noticeably on the data reported in the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the number of companies that believe their portfolio of orders will grow increased (up 3.4% on the third quarter to 40.3%), while the percentage of companies expecting their portfolio of orders to shrink in the next twelve months remained almost unchanged (down 0.1% on the third quarter to 14.7%).

• Trend in export prices

The perception of export price development has worsened. 11.4% of the companies surveyed consider that export prices have risen, which is 1.9% fewer than in the third quarter. Similarly, the percentage of companies that consider export prices have fallen rose by 4.7% when compared with the third quarter, to stand at 25.3%.

• Trend in export profit margin

Companies' perceptions of the trend in export profit margin has remained unchanged from the previous quarter. The percentage of companies that believe their profit margin has increased stands at 6.5%, which is a drop of 0.1% on the previous quarter, while the percentage of companies that believe their profit margin has fallen stands at 38.6%, which is 0.6% higher than in the third quarter.

• Positive factors

According to the export companies consulted for the survey, factors which have a positive impact on export activity are: trends in foreign demand (39.2% of the export companies consulted) and quality competition (20.4%). The importance of these factors increased by 3.3% and 1.6%, respectively. The importance attributed to the exchange rate (11.3%) fell by 3.2% on the previous quarter.

• Negative factors

Factors considered to have a negative impact in the fourth quarter of 2012 were: the cost of raw materials, which at 66.1% was once again identified as the main negative factor (down 3.2% on the third quarter); oil prices, at 63.2% (down 8.5%); price competition, at 57.5% (down 2.1%); and the availability of external financing, at 41% (up 1.7%).

The fourth quarter of 2012 saw significant improvements in the development of order portfolios when compared with the previous quarter for the EU-27, Rest of Europe and North America. Improvements were also reported with regard to Africa, although in a less pronounced manner for this geographic region. The portfolio of orders destined for Latin America remained almost unchanged, while there was a slight decline with regard to Asia and a more pronounced decline with regard to Oceania.

44.8% of companies that regularly export to the European Union maintained stable export orders to this destination. 23.3% saw orders to the EU increase, while 31.6% saw them decline. As regards the Eurozone, 23.3% of companies stated that their portfolio of orders increased, while 32.3% of the companies surveyed said that their orders to the Eurozone have declined.

The companies reported that their main destinations within the Eurozone were: France, with 64.3%; Germany, with 52.3% and Italy, with 36.7%.

On the other hand, the Russian market stands out among the Rest of Europe as the main destination for Spanish exports, accounting for 56.3% of exports, an improvement on the previous quarter. The United States (with 84%) is the main destination for Spanish exports in North America. This figure remains virtually unchanged on the previous quarter. Brazil (with 38.9%) is the main destination for Spanish exports in Latin America, while China is the main export destination for companies reporting that they exported to Asia (with 67.9% in the fourth quarter, almost 10% higher than the figure reported in the previous quarter).

As regards countries in Oceania, companies reported that their main export destination was Australia (with 89.3%). Among African countries, companies stated that their main export destination in the fourth quarter was Morocco (with 55.9%).

In terms of the forecasts at three months on trends in the portfolios of export orders, companies expect their exports to the Eurozone to fall slightly and for the trend to worsen regarding exports to the other countries that make up the EU-27 and Rest of Europe. A slight decline is also expected for exports to Asia and Oceania in the next three months. Exports to North America are expected to remain unchanged. On the other hand, an improvement is expected in exports to Latin America and Africa.

46.8% of companies that regularly export to the EU-27 expect their orders to this destination to remain stable over the next three months, and 30.2% expect them to increase. In turn, 22.1% of companies believe that their exports to the European Union will decline in the next quarter.

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