Today, January 12, the USDA released their WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate). First, a look at the numbers:
Jan 12 Previous 2014 Final
US corn production (billions) 13.601 13.654 14.216
US corn yield (bushels) 168.4 169.3 171.0
US corn Ending Stocks 1.802 1.785 1.732
US soybean prod. (billions) 3.930 3.981 3.969
US bean yield (bushels) 48.0 48.3 47.8
US soybean Ending Stocks 440 465 191
World Corn Ending Stocks 208.94 211.85 (MMT)
World Soy Ending Stocks 79.28 82.58 (MMT)
World Wheat Ending Stocks 232.04 229.86 (MMT)
Jan 12 USDA 2015
All US winter wheat seedings 36.6 39.46
US wheat Ending Stocks (millions) 941 911
Complete information can be found here:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/homepage.do;jsessionid=290FD1B5AB81DFBF1646F3146C128A18
Bulls on the loose? For those Ernest Hemingway fans in the audience, I don't think we're headed to Pamplona any time soon. But it was nice to see the bump today, led mostly by wheat and soy. Chicago wheat ended the day 12 1/4 higher, KC Wheat was 18 1/2 higher, March soybeans ended +13 1/4 and March Corn was up 4 3/4 for the day. As we've mentioned previously, this year seems to be shaping up as a 'sell the spikes' kind of year. Perhaps there is a little more left in the market from this report. If so, put in some firm offers and let a little loose. Maybe you've been waiting for a bump to price some grain and core some bins. This could turn out to be a good time to do that.
Finally, keep an eye on crude oil. During the day, it broke through $30, with a low at 29.93 per barrel. I will continue to maintain that we are not going to rally grains if crude continues to move lower, or even if it were to bottom out at these levels and stay there. There are too many factors pushing crude lower, and I think that will keep grains from rallying too much anytime soon. As mentioned above, look for the spikes based on grain fundamentals and use those to get some grain priced. I don't think we're going to see cash prices of $4 for corn and $9 for soybeans anytime soon.
-Tom Guinan, Grain Origination Manager
Ag Partners LLC issued this content on 2016-01-12 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 2016-01-12 22:00:12 UTC
Original Document: http://www.agpartners.com/newsstory.aspx?StoryID=2572
