OP 144. Csaba Burger: Defaulting Alone:The Geography of Sme Owner Numbers and Credit Risk in Hungary

CSABA BURGER

DEFAULTING ALONE:

THE GEOGRAPHY OF SME OWNER

NUMBERS AND CREDIT RISK

IN HUNGARY

MNB OCCASIONAL PAPERS | 144

2022

J A N U A R Y

DEFAULTING ALONE:

THE GEOGRAPHY OF SME OWNER NUMBERS

AND CREDIT RISK IN HUNGARY

MNB OCCASIONAL PAPERS | 144

2022

J A N U A R Y

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official view of the central bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank).

MNB Occasional Papers 144

Defaulting Alone: The Geography of SME Owner Numbers and Credit Risk in Hungary

(A magyarországi KKV-k tulajdonosainak száma és hitelkockázatuk földrajzi összefüggései)

Written by Csaba Burger*

Budapest, January 2022

Published by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Publisher in charge: Eszter Hergár

H-1013 Budapest, Krisztina körút 55.

www.mnb.hu

ISSN 1585-5678 (online)

• I would like to express my gratitude to Professor Gordon L Clark DSc (Oxon) FBA for his insightful comments on a previous version of this paper. Similarly, I thank to Zsolt Oláh and his team at the MNB for the ideas generated together, and to Álmos Telegdy for his thorough revision remarks. However, only I should be held responsible for any errors, omissions or opinions expressed herein.

Contents

Abstract	5
Összefoglaló	5
1	Introduction	7
2	From State Control to Market Mechanisms	8
2.1 SME ownership geography in the 1990s	8
2.2	Evolution of SME ownership structures in the 2000s and 2010s	8
2.3	Owner numbers and credit risk	9
3	Evolution of Ownership Structures	11
3.1 Data	11
3.2	The number of owners at Hungarian SMEs	13
3.3	Default Probability and Ownership Structure	22
4	Conclusion	30
5	References	31

MNB OCCASIONAL PAPERS 144 • 2022 3