National Energy Board : Market Snapshot: Imported value of natural gas liquids surpasses export value in 2015

The value of natural gas liquids (NGLs) imports could exceed the value of NGL exports in 2015 - something that has not occurred in at least 25 years. Data from Statistics Canada indicates that Canada's NGL trade balance has been on a general downward trend for over a decade, and was negative in the first ten months of 2015. Low export revenues have persisted in 2015 despite recent data indicating that propane export volumes will likely increase this year.

NGL Balance of Payments

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	Net Export Value
	Cost of Imports
	Export Revenues

The declining value of Canada's net NGL exports is partly the result of low NGL prices and increased competition from rising U.S. propane production, which has increased 40 per cent since 2011. Key infrastructure developments also played a role, including the commissioning of the Mariner West and Vantage pipelines for ethane imports. Ethane imports were zero in 2013 but are on pace to reach 64 000 barrels per day in 2015. Another key development was the conversion of the Cochin propane export line into a condensate import line in 2014.

While it is uncertain whether this negative NGL trade balance will persist, additional downward pressures are looming. Pembina is expanding its Vantage ethane import pipeline and NOVA is considering expansion of its petrochemical capacity in St. Clair, Ontario. Both developments would lead to higher imports of U.S ethane in the future.

Date modified:2016-01-05