National Bank of Serbia : Counterfeit Currency Report – January–December 2019

NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA

CASH DEPARTMENT

COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY REPORT

January-December 2019

January 2020

Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

Contents:
1	Expert analysis of banknotes and coins ........................................................	2
2	Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes .............................................	4
3	Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes .............................	6

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Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins

In 2019, the expert analysis of suspected counterfeit banknotes showed that a total of 3,890 notes were counterfeits, which is 36 notes more than in 2018, when a total of 3,854 false banknotes were detected. However, as the share of larger denominations was higher, the nominal amount rose by 16% (RSD 4,869,300.00 in the January- December 2019 period compared to RSD 4,197,970.00 in the same period of 2018). Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits.

Table 1 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January-December 2019
(pieces)
Denomination	5000	2000	1000	500	200	100	50	Total
Pieces	31	1,239	1,870	728	3	15	4	3,890
Share in %	0.8	31.8	48.1	18.7	0.1	0.4	0.1	100
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-, 2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1). Percentage-wise, these three denominations made up 98.6% of the overall number of dinar counterfeits.

Chart 1 Denomination structure of dinar
banknote counterfeits, January−December 2019
(pieces)
0.1%	0.4%
0.8%	0.1%	18.7%
31.8%

50	100	200	500	100 0	2000	5000
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

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Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed over the last ten years in terms of the number of detected counterfeits of these three most frequent denominations.

Chart 2 The most frequent dinars counterfeits
(pieces)
800 0
700 0	7,213
600 0
500 0
400 0
300 0										2,808	2,770
	2,330
2,531	2,106				2,087
						1,782
					1,590					1,870
200 0
								1,510
									2,115
				1,267							1,199	1,239
100 0			1,562			1,435	1,729
	1,382					1,372
		725	1,114	741			794		728
0
	201 0	201 1	201 2	201 3		201 4	201 5	201 6	201 7	201 8	201 9
	500-dinar		100 0-dina r		200 0-dinar

In value terms, the 2000- and 1000-dinar banknotes made up the largest share of the dinar counterfeit structure (Table 2 and Chart 3). In percentage terms, these two denominations accounted for 89.3% of all dinar counterfeits.

Table 2 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January-December 2019
(RSD thousand)
Denomination	5000	2000	1000	500	200	100	50	Total
Pieces	155	2,478	1,870	364	0.6	1.5	0.2	4,869.3
Share in %	3.2	50.9	38.4	7.5	0	0	0	100
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Chart 3 Denomination structure of dinar banknote
counterfeits, January−December 2019
(nominal value)
0%	0%
3.2%	0%	7.5%

38.4%

50	100	200	500	100 0	2000	500 0
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

A comparison of the number of detected dinar counterfeits with that of genuine dinar banknotes in circulation reveals that 9.5 in every 1 million circulating banknotes

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Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

were found to be counterfeit, i.e. there was RSD 18,513 worth of counterfeits in every RSD 1 billion.

2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes

From January to December 2019, the expert analysis of suspected counterfeit foreign currency banknotes revealed 1,256 pieces of counterfeits, which is 31 notes more than in the same period of 2018, when 1,225 such counterfeit notes were detected. Their currency and denomination structure is presented in Table 3.

• Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January-December 2019
  (pieces)

Currency			ЕUR				Total		USD		Total
											Other	Total
								EUR				USD
Denomination	500	200	100	50	20	10	5	100	50	20
Pieces	33	20	854	124	31	7	3	1,072	120	11	1	132	52	1,256
Share in %	2.6	1.6	68	9.9	2.5	0.6	0.2	85.4	9.5	0.9	0.1	10.5	4.1	100
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

A total of 1,072 counterfeit euro banknotes were detected during the period observed, down by 24 notes relative to the same period last year, when 1,096 of such notes were detected. The ratio between the number of the most frequently detected euro counterfeits - 100- and 50-euro banknotes, over the last ten years is presented in Chart 4.

Chart 4 The most frequent euro counterfeits
(pieces)
1,200
		966			1,081	1,023
1,000
									776	854
800
600	511					535	734
400			295						323
		227	159
200	133			118
						239
			197						124
			129
0
	201 0	2011	2012	2013	2014	201 5	2016	2017	2018	2019
	50-e uro		100 -euro

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In 2019, a total of 132 counterfeit US dollar banknotes were detected, which is 21.1% more than in the same period last year, when 109 dollar banknotes were established to be counterfeit. The predominant counterfeit banknotes were those of 100 dollars. Chart 5 shows movements in the number of detected 100-dollar counterfeits over the last ten years.

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Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

Chart 5 The most frequent US-dollar counterfeits
(pieces)
1,600
1,572
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600				504
400			266			107	141
200	74	94				105	120
0
201 0	201 1	201 2	201 3	201 4	201 5	201 6	201 7	201 8	201 9
100 -dollar

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

The item "Other" in Table 3 refers to fake banknotes in four different currencies - the Deutsche mark (31 pieces), Swiss franc (13 pieces), pound sterling (six pieces) and Bosnian convertible mark (two pieces).

In nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total detected foreign currency counterfeits and their percentage vis-à-vis the figures from a year earlier are best illustrated if expressed in euros,1 as shown in Chart 6.

Chart 6 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January−December
2018 and 2019
(EUR thousand)
120
				112.8
100
	81.7	I-XII			I-XII
80
	2018			2019
60
40
20		9.4				14.2
		3.5
0
EUR	USD	Other	EUR	USD	Other
Source: National Bank of Serbia.

1 For conversion of other currencies into euros, for the years of 2018 and 2019, we used the middle exchange rate as at 6 January 2020.

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Counterfeit Currency Report - January-December 2019

National Bank of Serbia

3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes

Chart 7 shows the ratio of dinar to foreign currency detected counterfeits (in terms of the number of pieces) in 2019.

Chart 7 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits
detected in January−December 2019
(pieces)
1,072	132	52

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

As shown, the share of counterfeit dinar banknotes (75.6%) exceeds the share of all detected foreign currency counterfeits.

However, in nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total counterfeits in 2019 is best illustrated if expressed in dinars,2 as shown in Chart 8.

urrency structure of banknote counterfeits

detected in January	2019
R
1,670.8
1,324.2	4,869.3

13,260.9

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

The euro (62.8%), followed by the dinar (23%) and the US dollar (6.3%) took up the dominant share in total detected counterfeits.

2 For conversion of other currencies into dinars, we used the middle exchange rate as at 6 January 2020.

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