Monetary Policy Information Compendium - Jan 2021

Monetary Policy Information Compendium

January 2021

Consolidated by

Statistics & DWH Department

STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

Monetary Policy Information Compendium	January 2021

Tables and Graphs
Real Sector
∙	Growth …………………………………………………………………........	1
∙	Saving and Investment…………………………………………………	3
∙	Inflation ……………………………………………………………………..	4
External Sector
∙	Balance of Payments …………………………………………………...	7
∙	Trade and Foreign Investment………………………………………	8
∙	Global Economy ………………………………………………………….	9
Fiscal Accounts and Debt
∙	Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances ………………..	11
∙	Government Domestic Debt ……………………………………........	12
∙	External Debt ……………………………………………………………...	13
∙	Total Debt …………………………………………………………………....	14
Monetary Sector
∙	Monetary and Credit Aggregates ………………………………..…	15
∙	Private Sector Credit …………………………………………………....	17
∙	Key Indicators of Monetary Sector…………………………………	18
∙	Trends In Monetary Aggregates……………………………..………	19
Financial Markets
∙	Money Market …………………………………………………………....	20
∙	Foreign Exchange Market ……………………………………………	26
∙	Capital Market …………………………………………………………....	28
∙	Financial Soundness Indicators ……………………………………	29

Monetary Policy Information Compendium

											January 2021
				Growth
Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector (percent)
Groups	Weights	YoY Change (Nov)	12-months MA change1		Cumulative change		FY20	FY19
					during (Jul-Nov)		(Jul-Jun)	(Jul-Jun)
		FY21	FY20	FY21	FY20		FY21	FY20
Overall	70.3	14.5	-4.3	-5.2	-4.5		7.4	-5.3		-9.9	-2.3
Textile	20.9	3.1	0.5	-9.5	0.1	2.4	0.3	-10.4	-0.1
Food, beverages and tobacco	12.4	57.6	2.3	5.3	-7.9	21.3	-6.1	-2.4	-5.6
Petroleum products	5.4	1.2	-5.5	-15.1	-11.5	1.5	-12.2	-20.1	-8.4
Iron and steel products	5.4	3.4	-8.7	-13.4	-14.5	-3.7	-13.8	-17.4	-11.2
Non-metallic mineral products	5.4	12.0	8.1	5.7	-1.5	20.6	1.9	-2.2	-2.4
Automobile	4.6	44.5	-45.3	-29.7	-27.7	5.9	-38.4	-44.2	-11.8
Fertilizer	4.4	9.2	-2.9	3.9	8.6	6.6	8.0	4.4	7.7
Pharmaceuticals	3.6	7.7	-0.1	5.8	-8.3	12.9	-8.1	-2.7	-8.3
Paper and board	2.3	10.2	30.9	5.3	-3.2	10.6	3.5	2.3	-3.7
Electronics	2.0	2.9	-51.6	-37.2	32.3	-18.0	-9.3	-33.3	59.4
Chemicals	1.7	11.0	13.7	-0.4	0.2	10.0	8.5	-1.4	-4.1
Leather products	0.9	-40.5	15.0	-31.1	2.5	-43.0	10.0	-9.1	-2.4
Wood products	0.6	-58.8	36.6	-69.2	74.7	-65.0	54.9	-39.3	18.6
Engineering products	0.4	-26.7	-22.9	-32.2	2.4	-32.6	0.6	-18.7	8.9
Rubber products	0.3	7.9	-3.1	6.1	1.7	8.5	0.6	2.8	4.2

1 MA=Moving Average: These changes are calculated on the basis of 12 month average of LSM index over the 12 month average of preceding year

Overall LSM Index

180

170

160

150

Index

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Feb-17

May-17

Feb-18

May-18

Feb-19

May-19

Feb-20

May-20

Nov-16

Aug-17

Nov-17

Aug-18

Nov-18

Aug-19

Nov-19

Aug-20

Nov-20

Overall LSM Growth (YoY and Cumulative)

	FY21-YoY	FY20-YoY		FY21-Cummulative	FY20-Cummulative
	20
	15
	10
	5
	0
percent	-5
-10
-15
-20
	-25
	-30
	-35
	-40
	-45	Aug	Sep		Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb		Apr
	Jul	Oct	Mar	May	Jun

Major Crops

		Production			Area under cultivation		Yield
				percent			percent			percent
		(million tons)		change	(million hectares)	change	(Kg/hectare)	change
				FY20 Over			FY20 Over			FY20 Over
	FY20	FY19	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY19	FY19	FY20	FY19	FY19
Cotton2	9.2	9.9	11.9	-6.9	2.5	2.4	6.5	618	707	-12.6
Sugarcane	66.9	67.2	83.3	-0.4	1.0	1.1	-5.6	64,308	60,956	5.5
Rice	7.4	7.2	7.5	2.9	3.0	2.8	8.0	2,442	2,563	-4.7
Wheat	24.9	24.3	25.1	2.5	8.8	8.7	1.7	2,827	2,806	0.7

2 Cotton production is stated in million bales of 375 lbs each.

Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan.

Real Sector

1

Monetary Policy Information Compendium

January 2021

Production Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent)

		FY20P		Growth
	Growth	Share	Contribution2	FY19	FY18
Agriculture of which	2.7	19.3	0.5	0.6	4.0
Important crops	2.9	4.2	0.1	-7.7	3.6
Other crops	4.6	2.2	0.1	2.6	6.3
Livestock	2.6	11.7	0.3	3.8	3.7
Industry of which	-2.6	19.3	-0.5	-2.3	4.6
Manufacturing	-5.6	12.5	-0.7	-0.7	5.4
Large-scale	-7.8	9.5	-0.8	-2.6	5.1
Small-scale	1.5	2.0	0.0	8.2	8.2
Construction	8.1	2.5	0.2	-16.8	10.8
Services of which	-0.6	61.4	-0.4	3.8	6.3
Wholesale & retail trade	-3.4	18.2	-0.6	1.1	6.6
Transport Storage and Communications	-7.1	12.3	-0.9	4.6	1.9
Finance & insurance	0.8	3.6	0.0	5.0	7.4
General Government Services	3.9	8.6	0.3	5.2	11.8
Real GDP (basic prices)	-0.4	100.0	-0.4	1.9	5.5
Real GDP (market prices)	0.5	106.4	0.6	1.0	5.8
	FY20P	FY19R	FY18
Real GDP (bp, billion Rs)	12,532	12,580	12,344
Nominal GDP (mp, billion Rs)	41,727	37,972	34,616
Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$)1	267	279	315
Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent)
		FY20P		Growth
	Growth	Share	Contribution 4	FY19	FY18
Consumption	-2.0	91.4	-1.7	2.7	6.5
Private	-3.7	78.8	-2.8	2.9	6.2
Government	10.3	12.6	1.1	0.8	8.6

Growth in Real GDP at basic price (percent)

9.0								Actual					Target
8.0
7.0
	5.5		5.7		6.0		6.2
6.0		5.1
5.0
																	4.0
4.0
3.0
																			2.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19R	FY20P	FY21T

Growth in Agriculture (percent)

9.0									Actual						Target
8.0
7.0
6.0
			3.9									3.8
5.0
										3.5					3.5
4.0		3.3				3.5									2.8
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
	FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19R	FY20P	FY21T

Growth in Industry (percent)

									Actual					Target
9.0								7.7
				6.4										7.6
8.0									7.3
	6.8
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
															2.3
3.0
2.0
															0.1
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
FY15	FY16		FY17	FY18	FY19R FY20P FY21T

Fixed capital formation	0.1	13.7	0.0	-12.8	11.2
Private	-0.4	10.2	0.0	-4.3	7.0
Public plus general government	1.5	3.4	0.0	-31.2	21.7
Changes in stocks	0.5	1.6	0.0	1.0	5.8
Net exports of goods and nonfactor services	26.4	-7.0	2.5	5.7	-23.0
Exports of goods and non-factor
services	1.6	11.0	0.2	14.5	12.7
Imports of goods and non-factor
services	-11.1	17.6	-2.2	4.3	17.6
GDP (market prices)	0.5	100.0	0.5	1.0	5.8
Indirect Taxes	13.5	6.8	0.8	-7.8	8.5
Subsidies	-9.2	0.8	-0.1	53.0	-11.6
GDP (basic prices)	-0.4	94.0	-0.4	1.9	5.5
Total domestic demand3	-1.7	106.6	-1.7	0.4	7.2

1 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year.

Growth in Services (percent)

9.0										Actual						Target
8.0
			5.7					6.4			6.5
7.0
	5.2				5.7
6.0
																			4.8
5.0
4.0
																					2.6
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19R	FY20P	FY21T

2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 3 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP. 4 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies.

T: Target

Real Sector

2