The flurry of stats published on Friday on both sides of the Atlantic had no notable impact.

The yield on the ten-year German Bund, the benchmark for the eurozone, eased to 2.394% (-3pts but +4pts over the week), while the OAT stagnated at 3.154% (-1pt over the week): the spread widened again to over 75pts, but remained below last Friday's +80pts.
Further south, Italian BTPs eased by a symbolic point, while Spanish 'Bonos' fell in line with the Bund with -3Pts to 3.314%.

It was PMI day in Europe: the morning was punctuated by the publication of the HCOB flash composite PMI index of overall activity in the eurozone. The index fell from 52.2 in May to 50.8 in June, showing only a slight increase in private-sector activity levels over the month.

In France, the PMI flash composite HCOB index of overall activity fell from 48.9 in May to 48.2 in June, signalling a moderate decline in French private sector activity in June, with the rate of contraction increasing month-on-month.

Also in France, business sentiment remained stable in June compared with May (for the third consecutive month), with the Insee synthetic indicator holding at 99, just below its long-term average (100).

US bond yields are stabilizing after yesterday's sharp deterioration... and the deluge of US figures seems to have frozen initiatives.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries remains unchanged at 4.250/4.2550%, while the 2-year remains just as immobile at 4.7300%.

Growth in the US private sector accelerated very slightly in June, according to S&P Global's composite PMI index, which came in at 54.6 in flash estimates, compared with 54.5 in final data for the previous month.

S&P Global points out that production has now risen continuously for 17 months in a row, with a marked improvement in the pace of expansion between May and June, while price pressures have eased.
The index of leading indicators, which is supposed to forecast the evolution of economic activity in the United States, fell more sharply than expected in May, announced the Conference Board on Friday, which said it saw this as a sign of slowing growth.

The leading index fell by 0.5% last month, to 101.2, after declining by 0.6% in April, while economists were forecasting a more limited decline of around 0.3%.

While the Conference Board indicates that such an indicator is not a harbinger of a coming recession, the trade organization now says it expects US GDP to rise by less than 1% annualized in the second and third quarters due to inflation and high interest rates, which it believes are weighing on consumer spending.

Existing home sales in the United States fell by 0.7% in May 2024 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million, according to statistics released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The median sales price of existing homes jumped 5.8% on May 2023 to $419,300 - the highest price on record and the eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year increases... meaning that real estate purchases have never been so unaffordable, with first-time buyers an extinct species.

The stock of unsold existing homes rose by 6.7% on the previous month to reach 1.28 million at the end of May, equivalent to 3.7 months' supply at the current rate of monthly sales.

Across the Channel, Gilts deteriorated by +3pts to 4.113%.





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