A timid decline in interest rates began this evening in Europe: the situation eased late in the day... and several hours after the publication of data on inflation in Europe and anticipated activity (PMI) in the United States.
Our OATs and Bunds - long frozen at Tuesday's levels (2.925% and 2.41%) - ended up erasing 2pts at 2.905% and -3pts at 2.380% on Bunds, while Italian BTPs remained unchanged at 3.8020%.
Market participants did not react to the publication of the first figures on consumer prices in the Eurozone for March (estimate down slightly, to 2.4% in March, after 2.6% at annual rate for the core inflation index)... the easing materializing after 5pm.

Conversely, US T-Bonds are stretching +4pts to 4.3700%, after testing 4.4100% during the session... which is, however, the worst closing level seen since 28/11/2023.
The heaviness is even more flagrant on the '30-yr', which is stretching +6pts to 4.522%... but the '2-yr' is surprising with -3pts to 4.688%.

Growth slowed slightly in the US private sector in March: S&P Global's composite PMI came in at 52.1 in final figures, compared with 52.2 in flash estimates, and after 52.5 in February

S&P Global points out that while manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in almost two years, growth in services activity eased, with the PMI falling from 52.3 to 51.7 month-on-month.
This is a step in the right direction, as central banks have recently made it clear that their future decisions will depend on economic indicators, and that they still need reassurance about the future of inflation in general and wage pressures in particular.

Yesterday's surge in oil prices ($86 on the NYMEX, an annual record) proves that geopolitical and inflation uncertainties can still be a source of volatility, raising doubts about the timing of rate cuts.

A new episode of tension between Israel and Iran this weekend continues to push up oil prices (following strikes carried out by Tsahal on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria).

In the same vein (geopolitical tensions), the ounce of gold has just passed the $2,300 mark (absolute record), i.e. +10% since breaking its previous record at $2,070... and silver has set a new annual record at $26.85


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