Fitch : Turkey 'Road Map' Delay Shows Policy Credibility Weakness

22 Jan 2016 7:28 AM EST

Fitch Ratings-London-22 January 2016: The delay to the Turkish central bank's road map for global monetary policy normalisation highlights the long-standing weakness of economic policy coherence and credibility, Fitch Ratings says.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) gave no indication of when it would begin its 'monetary policy simplification steps' when it announced the monetary policy committee's interest-rate decision on Tuesday. At its previous meeting on 22 December, the committee had indicated that these steps would begin in January, 'should the decline in volatility observed after the start of... normalisation persist.'

The timeline was vague when the roadmap was published in August, but narrowing the corridor around the one-week repo rate and making it more symmetrical were slated to coincide 'with the start of the normalisation of global monetary policies.' It is now even less clear when a transition to a simpler, more orthodox monetary policy framework, which could improve policy coherence and predictability, will begin, particularly given the impending end of the term of the CBRT governor.

Monetary policy uncertainty comes at a time of rising inflationary pressures. Headline inflation hit 8.8% in December. Exchange-rate weakness will keep inflation above peers and it potentially jeopardises the target of 7.5% in the new government's medium-term programme, released on 11 January. We had assumed the CBRT would increase policy rates following the December Fed hike, but it left its three main interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, as it had in December.

A simpler monetary policy framework would boost the authorities' capacity to counter external vulnerabilities. These remain an important feature of Turkey's sovereign credit profile, although key indicators have improved since our last rating review in September.

The current account deficit (CAD) has declined rapidly due to lower oil prices. Over the 12 months to end-November, the CAD was USD34.7bn, the lowest in over five years. Low oil prices will pull down the CAD on a rolling 12-month basis until mid-2016 at least, despite the impact of security incidents on tourism receipts and Russian sanctions.

Rollover rates for banks and corporates are well in excess of 100% (162% and 347% respectively), reflecting greater medium- and long-term borrowing, which is easing the external financing requirement, although net portfolio outflows have reduced reserves.

Strong and credible fiscal policy, reflected in a low and falling debt/GDP ratio is a key support for Turkey's 'BBB-'/Stable rating. Implementing pre-election pledges at a cost officially estimated at around 1.4% of GDP (independent economists have higher estimates) raises questions over fiscal discipline, and the projected fall in debt/GDP under the new medium-term plan is partly based on ambitious growth projections of 5% for 2017 and 2018. Structural reform measures in the plan could lift growth and reduce structural rigidities, though many are not new and implementation has proved challenging in the past.

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The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

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