Oddo BHF confirms its Neutral recommendation on the stock, with an unchanged target price of E201, following the Group's announcement of delivery and order figures.

The analyst points out that 2023 delivery targets have not been met in either the civil or military sectors.

Dassault Aviation has announced the delivery of 13 Rafales (11 for France and 2 for export) and 26 Falcon jets over the full 2023 fiscal year.

' These figures are disappointing, as they fall short of the targets set by the company (-2 Rafale and -9 Falcon respectively), but also below the volumes delivered in 2022 (-1 Rafale and -6
Falcon respectively)' says the analyst firm.

We had recently reduced our Falcon estimates to 26 aircraft, to reflect persistent problems in the supplier chain, as well as the additional time required to meet additional requests from certification authorities for the 6X (likely no commercial deliveries in fiscal 2023).

Oddo BHF believes that Falcon order intake is also disappointing, with 23 aircraft ordered in 2023 versus 64 in 2022

' In the end, we have adjusted our FY 23 EPS by -3.6% to take into account the delay in Rafale deliveries. We have also adjusted our FCF to reflect the entry into service of the 18 Indonesian Rafales in FY 24 vs FY 23 in our previous estimates, with an FCF of -1.1 BnE in FY 23 and +2.1 BnE in FY 24 (including Rafale Marine for India)' adds the research firm.

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