NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 24 (Reuters) - Crop Watch condition scores have somewhat steadied after rising for three straight weeks as the latest week’s dry weather was offset by cooler temperatures.
That dry trend is expected to hold through at least this week, but some of the U.S. Corn Belt’s hottest temperatures of the season are forecast to move in mid-week and last through the weekend.
Many of the Crop Watch producers expect their crops to be showing more stress by next weekend, but this stretch of heat may be tolerable from a yield perspective so long as rains return in early August. The producers are nearly unanimously more concerned with potential dryness versus heat.
Weather models have been mixed on the temperature bias for the first week in August and there is not yet a clear indication on whether a wet pattern returns to the core Corn Belt, which has kept the grain market’s attention.
CONDITIONS AND YIELD
In the latest week, corn condition and yield contracted slightly while soybean condition edged upward, and soy yield stayed unchanged.
The 11-field average corn condition slipped to 4.16 from 4.2 in the prior week on quarter-point cuts in Nebraska and western Iowa, the latter stemming from a seed issue rather than a weather issue. This week’s average corn rating is very similar to those from the same weeks in 2022 and 2021.
The average corn yield score of 4.02 is slightly better than in the past two years, though it is down from 4.07 in the prior week based on the same cuts in the same states as above.
Soybean conditions rose by the smallest possible degree, to 4.2 from 4.18 a week earlier, on a quarter-point bump in Ohio. The Ohio producer also made the same adjustment to soy yield, which was offset by a quarter-point decline in North Dakota as flowers may be aborting in the dry weather.
That kept Crop Watch soybean yield unchanged at 4.16 for the week, distinctly better than at this same time in 2022 and 2021.
Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. The condition scores are a primarily visual assessment similar to the U.S. government’s where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
Yield potential extends to non-visible elements and may vary from condition. On this scale, 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
WEATHER
Ohio was the wettest Crop Watch location last week with around 2.75 inches of rain in two events, one with some damaging hail. Eastern Iowa picked up 1.2 inches but the other nine locations received a half inch or less, on average. No rain was observed in the Illinois fields.
Some producers, especially in Iowa and western Illinois, have reported heavy morning dews in their fields. In the past, those have helped crops maintain conditions during dry stretches.
Producers in South Dakota and Nebraska have also reported some dew, though not to the extent as in past years. The northeast Nebraska soils are drier than in past years, lessening the dew’s impact.
All 11 producers were asked whether they would preference a wet and hot August over a dry and cool one, and all but one chose wet and hot, suggesting that depleted subsoil moisture still remains of top concern.
The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.
Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
