SIOUX FALLS, South Dakota, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields last week endured one of their driest collective weeks of the last couple months, though the increasingly familiar theme of cooler temperatures prevented any sizable decline in yield expectations.
But unseasonably hot weather, especially in western areas, is going to test the crops’ resilience in the next several days. Minimal to no rain is forecast this week for most areas of the Corn Belt.
Given this week’s heat, most Crop Watch producers are concerned about the crops moving toward maturity too quickly, limiting corn kernel size and weight, as well as soybean seed size and pod viability. Some mentioned a potential drop in yield scores next week, particularly for soybeans.
However, a couple of producers were less worried about this hot and dry stretch considering their recent moisture situation. That could change if the following week stays warm and dry, since rainfall could still make a difference for many of the Crop Watch in the next couple weeks or beyond.
Weather models as of Sunday evening suggest the bulk of the Corn Belt could stay dry through 14 days, and temperatures next week may be warm but less so than this week.
Of the 11 Crop Watch locations, only Ohio got decent rains over the last week, totaling 2.1 inches. Southeastern Illinois observed 0.7 inch, Indiana 0.4 inch, Minnesota 0.25 inch and eastern Iowa 0.2 inch, but the other six locations were totally dry.
Crop Watch producers continue to rate yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale, though conditions have been discontinued as the crop is moving closer to maturity. A yield score of 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
The 11-field, average soybean yield fell to 4.09 from 4.16 last week as a quarter-point bump in Ohio was offset by quarter-point cuts in Minnesota and western Iowa and a half-point drop in North Dakota. The Ohio soybeans join eastern Iowa as the only two 5-rated soybean fields.
Average corn yield remains unchanged at 3.89 as a quarter-point loss in North Dakota was balanced by an equal boost in southeastern Illinois. That overall score has not materially changed in four weeks, but it is slightly above the average corn yield from the same weeks in the last two years.
The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.
Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Editing by Sam Holmes)
