China coal generation share at record low in May as renewables hit new highs, analysis shows

BEIJING, July 11 (Reuters) - China generated 53% of its electricity from coal in May, a record low, while a record high of 44% came from non-fossil fuel sources, indicating its carbon emissions may have peaked last year if the trend continues, according to a new analysis.

Coal's share was down from 60% in May 2023, according to the analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, for specialist publication Carbon Brief.

Solar rose to 12% of power generation in May and wind to 11% as China added large amounts of new capacity. Hydropower at 15%, nuclear with 5% and biomass at 2% made up the rest of the non-fossil fuel based power.

The increased renewable generation led carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector, which make up some 40% of China's overall emissions, to fall by 3.6% in May.

"If current rapid wind and solar deployment continues, then China's CO2 output is likely to continue falling, making 2023 the peak year for the country's emissions," Myllyvirta wrote.

An analysis by Myllyvirta last year for the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air showed China's emissions could go into a "structural decline" from 2024.

The analysis for Carbon Brief found solar power generation soared by a record 78% year-on-year in May to 94 terrawatt hours (TWh).

Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed a 29% increase, but that excluded rooftop solar panels and therefore missed about half of the electricity generated by solar energy.

The new analysis calculated wind and solar output using power generating capacity data and utilization figures from the China Electricity Council, an industry association.

Wind power generation rose 5% on the year to 83 TWh as a 21% increase in capacity was offset by lower utilization because of variations in wind conditions. Hydropower generation rose 39% from last year, when hydropower plants were hit by a drought.

Gas-fired generation fell by 16%, despite a 9% increase in capacity.

Power generation from coal fell by 3.7%, even as total electricity demand increased 7.2% from a year earlier. (Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Jamie Freed)