By Robb M. Stewart
OTTAWA--New-house prices in Canada are projected to be muted this year after holding steady in December following three straight months of declines.
Elevated mortgage rates in the country, and the risk of further increases in 2023, coupled with a fall in lumber prices should continue to cool prices for new houses, at least during the first half of the year, Statistics Canada said Monday.
New-home prices rose 7.7% nationally in 2022--with a fall toward the end of the year as a jump in mortgage rates following a string of central bank policy-rate increases curbed demand--cooling from growth of 10.3% in 2021, the data agency said.
Statistics Canada's new-house price index was unchanged in December from the month before, and was up 3.9% from a year earlier. Prices declined 0.4% from July to December after rising early in the year, the agency said.
A big driver of economic growth in 2021, Canada's housing market cooled last year as the Bank of Canada drove one of the most aggressive rate-rising campaigns among developed-world central banks in an effort to tackle inflation. The bank raised its main interest rate by 4 percentage points over the course of the year to 4.25%, the highest level in almost 15 years, but has signaled it is at or near the end of its tightening campaign. The bank is set to decide monetary policy on Wednesday, and most economists forecast a further one-quarter percentage point increase.
Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association said sales of existing homes edged 1.3% higher in December from the previous month, but remained sharply below the level of sales recorded a year earlier, while new listings were down 5.7% for the month. The association projected the number of properties that trade hands in 2023 will slip by 0.5% after a drop of about 25% in 2022, while average prices are expected to fall 5.9% after rising 2.4% last year.
Statistics Canada said lower softwood lumber prices, which were down 57.3% in December from a high in March, and higher mortgage rates are expected to weigh on new home prices this year. However, as mortgage rates stabilize and uncertainty in markets calms, housing demand and prices should edge up in the latter half of 2023. This and other factors, including increased immigration targets for Canada and continued inter-provincial migration, could lead to price increases for new homes, it said.
The new-house price data from Statistics Canada covers single-dwelling, semi-detached and row houses. It doesn't incorporate prices for newly built condominium units.
Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-23-23 0923ET
