CAPIS Capital Institutional Services : Global Recap 1/30/17

Asian Headlines

Perhaps the 'Trump Rally' has ended and we now enter the 'Trump Risk' period. For the markets that were open, there were jitters following the Pres. Trump's immigration orders. While the restriction has limited direct market impact, it underscores the President's desire to stick to his campaign pledges and underscore concerns regarding international trade. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea, Malaysia and Singapore were all closed for the Lunar New Year.

Japan gave ground as the ¥ strengthened and the BoJ began its two day policy meeting. The central bank is not expected to make any major changes and is expected to allay fears about any reduction in its asset purchase program. It will also release forecasts for FY '17 and '18. Adding to the day's negative vibe were retail sales which rose less than expected during December and revealed consumer sentiment continues to slow the economy. Retail sales increased only 0.6% y/y which was well below the +1.7% y/y expected. SMFG -1.3% following the results from Friday. The Nikkei indicated Canon's +0.1% OP will rise 10.0%. Toshiba -3.7% came under pressure due to reports trust banks intend to sue the company due to mismanagement. After the close, Sony announced it would book a ¥112.1b impairment charge due to losses at its movie unit. Daiwa reported Q3 figures which were a touch better y/y.

Down Under, QBE +0.15% stated it had not held any talks regarding a takeover in the wake of reports Allianz -1.7% had interest. Investors were digging Newcrest Mining's +1.3% production report. Q2 output was flat y/y but costs declined by 5.0%.

India traded flattish being held steady by the telco sector. Vodafone +2.5% declared it was conducting talks to merge its operations with those of Idea Cellular 25.25%!

European Headlines

Europe has been down since the open and spent most of the off between 0.5% to 1%. Most sectors have been red all morning with financials, consumer staples, and energy are off 1% or more. Telcos have been the only sector the upside all morning but that mostly due to Vodafone. Healthcare has also manged to move to the upside. Volumes started off about 25.0% lower but have improved to only down c. 10.0%.

The risk off sentiment has also impacted the bond market with most yields higher. The German and UK yields have improved and are now lower on the day.

Bankia's -0.1% results showed improving trends within its earnings and OP was ahead of consensus. Elsewhere in the banking sector, the Italian press alleged the board of Unicredit -5.0% would be holding an extraordinary meeting today. Watch for headlines. The U.K. government continues to reduce its stake Lloyds -0.6% and now holds less than 5%.

Despite the diesel fiasco, VW -1.7% was 2016's leading global auto maker selling 10.6m units surpassing Toyota's (flat) 10.2m. Bloomberg cited improved sales in China.

You know its a slower corporate news day when we discuss broker recommendations. Software Ag +6.7% is a Eurostoxx600 leader post being upgraded to buy at UBS and HSBC.

Investors are waiting to see Luxottica's results.

Keep an eye on DHT with Frontline had made an offer for the company at about $5.09 vs. Friday's close of $4.27.

Happy Monday!

Market Prices and Macro

	Event		Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
SP	GDP QoQ	4Q P	0.70%	0.70%	0.70%	-
SP	GDP YoY	4Q P	3.00%	3.00%	3.20%	-
GE	CPI Saxony MoM	Jan	-	-0.50%	0.90%	-
GE	CPI Saxony YoY	Jan	-	2.30%	1.80%	-
GE	CPI Brandenburg MoM	Jan	-	-0.70%	0.70%	-
GE	CPI Brandenburg YoY	Jan	-	1.70%	1.70%	-
GE	CPI Hesse MoM	Jan	-	-0.50%	0.90%	-
GE	CPI Hesse YoY	Jan	-	2.40%	1.90%	-
GE	CPI Bavaria MoM	Jan	-	-0.80%	0.70%	-
GE	CPI Bavaria YoY	Jan	-	1.70%	1.70%	-
GE	CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM	Jan	-	-0.60%	0.90%	-
GE	CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY	Jan	-	2.10%	1.90%	-
EC	Economic Confidence	Jan	107.8	108.2	107.8	-
EC	Business Climate Indicator	Jan	0.8	0.77	0.79	0.77
EC	Industrial Confidence	Jan	0.2	0.8	0.1	0
EC	Services Confidence	Jan	12.7	13.5	12.9	13.1
EC	Consumer Confidence	Jan F	-4.9	-4.7	-4.9	-
GE	CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM	Jan	-	-0.60%	0.70%	-
GE	CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY	Jan	-	1.90%	1.60%	-
GE	CPI YoY	Jan P	2.00%	-	1.70%	-
GE	CPI MoM	Jan P	-0.50%	-	0.70%	-
GE	CPI EU Harmonized MoM	Jan P	-0.70%	-	1.00%	-
GE	CPI EU Harmonized YoY	Jan P	2.00%	-	1.70%	-