Bookings point to falling traffic in the near-term

IATA Economics' Chart of the Week

21 January 2022

Bookings point to falling traffic in the near-term

Bookings made in December by routes, percentage of December 2019

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Above the dashed line, bookings improved versus November

Within Asia Asia - SW Pac Afr - Asia

Domestic	International			South Am
Bubble size proportional	Central Am
to market share of
Jan-Nov 2021 actual						North Am
pax traffic
	Within Central Am	- Central Am
						Nth Am - Sth Am
Asia		Europe	Eur - Sth Am
			Eur - ME	Nth Am - Central Am
Africa		Within Eur		ME - Nth Am
		Eur - Nth Am
ME - Asia
Afr - Eur
	Afr - ME
Eur - Asia					Below the dashed line,
	Middle East
Asia - Nth Am				bookings deteriorated
					versus November

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bookings made in November by routes, percentage of November 2019

Source: IATA DDS ticketing data

• We recently argued thatair travel in Decemberwas likely to have been resilient despite the spread of Omicron as tickets sold for travel in December pointed to a continuation of the recovery in RPKs - partly driven by resilient trips to visit friends and relatives.
• This week we look at bookings made in December compared to those made in November, for travel at any point in time in the future. In total, tickets sold in December 2021 stood at 50% of the December 2019 level, down from 56% in November on the same basis. The deterioration was more pronounced for international travel (from 43% of 2019 levels in November to 30% in December) than for domestic trips (from 68% of 2019 levels in November to 65% in December), mainly due to tighter travel restrictions. As travellers tend to book on relatively short notice, this decline is likely to be reflected in actual traffic volumes in January and February 2022.
• There was also some disparity among the main regions and route areas. Domestic China improved somewhat, despite strict local lockdowns and a rise in cases at the end of December, but domestic Europe and North America deteriorated. Internationally, North-Central America, which had performed strongly for most of the year, saw a roughly 30 percentage points decline, and the North Atlantic market, which reopened to European travellers in November, regressed by a similar magnitude. Bookings for travel Within Asia, once one of the largest markets globally, remain insignificant amid risk-averse behavior by governments.
• Looking ahead, tickets sold in the first half of January show a continuation of the decline. Globally, they were at 44% of the same period in 2019. Nevertheless, we expect rapid improvements once the Omicron waves recede and control measures are eased.

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