Financials Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd.

Equities

3141

JP3274280001

Drug Retailers

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-05-31 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,166 ^JPY	+1.52%		-0.14%	-12.15%

Apr. 22	Inageya to Book Extraordinary Income of 1.62 Billion Yen in Fiscal 2025 After Share Transfer Agreement with Aeon and Welcia	MT
Apr. 17	Japan's Welcia says president steps down due to 'inappropriate behaviour'	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Capitalization ¹	678,732	708,099	638,907	622,895	583,247	447,626	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	679,134	703,731	678,015	676,112	635,413	480,222	452,863	436,583
P/E ratio	29.8 x	25.4 x	24.1 x	23 x	22.1 x	16.4 x	15.4 x	14.6 x
Yield	0.77%	0.84%	0.98%	1.07%	1.2%	1.66%	1.72%	1.85%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.78 x	0.75 x	0.62 x	0.54 x	0.48 x	0.35 x	0.33 x	0.32 x
EV / Revenue	0.78 x	0.74 x	0.66 x	0.59 x	0.52 x	0.38 x	0.34 x	0.31 x
EV / EBITDA	12.7 x	11.7 x	10.9 x	9.82 x	9.4 x	7.04 x	6.35 x	5.96 x
EV / FCF	15.9 x	27.1 x	-32.5 x	27.9 x	25.9 x	17.7 x	18.6 x	17.9 x
FCF Yield	6.29%	3.69%	-3.08%	3.58%	3.86%	5.65%	5.37%	5.59%
Price to Book	4.2 x	3.95 x	3.17 x	2.76 x	2.46 x	1.74 x	1.59 x	1.48 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	208,841	207,959	208,453	209,095	206,386	206,613	-	-
Reference price ²	3,250	3,405	3,065	2,979	2,826	2,166	2,166	2,166
Announcement Date	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	868,280	949,652	1,025,947	1,144,278	1,217,339	1,276,288	1,338,983	1,387,944
EBITDA ¹	53,464	59,949	61,979	68,860	67,623	68,193	71,272	73,266
EBIT ¹	37,801	42,974	43,018	45,635	43,231	46,121	48,876	51,171
Operating Margin	4.35%	4.53%	4.19%	3.99%	3.55%	3.61%	3.65%	3.69%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	35,936	41,311	42,410	44,566	40,333	44,825	47,625	49,918
Net income ¹	22,802	27,999	26,453	27,030	26,451	27,350	29,132	30,822
Net margin	2.63%	2.95%	2.58%	2.36%	2.17%	2.14%	2.18%	2.22%
EPS ²	109.2	134.2	127.0	129.4	127.8	131.9	140.5	148.6
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,697	25,962	-20,860	24,228	24,501	27,133	24,312	24,404
FCF margin	4.92%	2.73%	-2.03%	2.12%	2.01%	2.13%	1.82%	1.76%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	79.86%	43.31%	-	35.18%	36.23%	39.79%	34.11%	33.31%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	187.25%	92.72%	-	89.63%	92.63%	99.21%	83.46%	79.18%
Dividend per Share ²	25.00	28.50	30.00	32.00	34.00	36.00	37.18	40.14
Announcement Date	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: February	2021 S1	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 S1	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1
Net sales ¹	476,656	508,295	248,108	269,544	267,716	295,036	562,752	283,234	298,292	298,267	312,750	611,017	299,443	306,879	310,725	327,600	636,500	315,525	322,775	-
EBITDA	-	-	11,805	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	26,481	22,735	7,080	13,203	7,713	16,275	23,988	7,480	14,167	7,381	17,354	24,735	6,370	12,126	8,025	17,925	25,600	6,825	12,450	-
Operating Margin	5.56%	4.47%	2.85%	4.9%	2.88%	5.52%	4.26%	2.64%	4.75%	2.47%	5.55%	4.05%	2.13%	3.95%	2.58%	5.47%	4.02%	2.16%	3.86%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	27,394	24,842	7,682	9,886	10,383	-	27,504	7,148	-	8,608	-	26,424	7,143	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	17,300	15,527	4,681	6,245	6,321	10,767	17,088	4,048	5,894	5,126	11,107	16,233	4,149	6,069	4,450	12,000	-	4,650	5,200	-
Net margin	3.63%	3.05%	1.89%	2.32%	2.36%	3.65%	3.04%	1.43%	1.98%	1.72%	3.55%	2.66%	1.39%	1.98%	1.43%	3.66%	-	1.47%	1.61%	-
EPS ²	82.80	74.58	22.46	29.95	30.30	51.56	81.86	19.35	28.17	24.56	53.69	78.25	20.19	29.39	23.06	54.29	-	22.73	25.87	-
Dividend per Share ²	13.50	15.00	-	15.00	-	-	16.00	-	16.00	-	-	17.00	-	17.00	-	18.00	-	-	18.00	-
Announcement Date	10/7/20	10/6/21	1/7/22	4/7/22	7/5/22	10/4/22	10/4/22	1/10/23	4/10/23	7/10/23	10/10/23	10/10/23	1/9/24	4/8/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	402	-	39,108	53,217	52,166	32,596	5,237	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	4,368	-	-	-	-	-	11,043
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.007519 x	-	0.631 x	0.7728 x	0.7714 x	0.478 x	0.0735 x	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,697	25,962	-20,860	24,228	24,501	27,133	24,312	24,404
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	15%	16.4%	13.9%	12.7%	11.4%	11%	10.9%	10.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	11.2%	6.78%	10.6%	10.4%	8.77%	4.95%	5.92%	5.18%
Assets ¹	202,740	412,845	249,781	259,267	301,648	552,585	491,808	594,899
Book Value Per Share ²	774.0	863.0	967.0	1,079	1,150	1,246	1,363	1,461
Cash Flow per Share ²	177.0	207.0	209.0	224.0	228.0	244.0	258.0	274.0
Capex ¹	14,644	20,434	25,962	24,634	18,358	27,408	27,086	27,329
Capex / Sales	1.69%	2.15%	2.53%	2.15%	1.51%	2.15%	2.02%	1.97%
Announcement Date	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,166 JPY

Average target price

2,677 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+23.55%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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