Financials Tobu Railway Co., Ltd.

Equities

9001

JP3597800006

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-05-17 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,767 ^JPY	+0.51%		-5.04%	-26.97%

May. 01	Tobu Railway's Attributable Profit Surges 65% in Fiscal 2024	MT
Apr. 30	Tobu Railway Co., Ltd. Announces Year-End Dividend for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2024, Payable on June 24, 2024; Provides Dividend Guidance for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	675,005	777,129	620,860	621,481	655,293	571,978	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,421,609	1,523,015	1,405,314	1,383,154	1,378,215	1,497,887	1,254,290	1,247,700
P/E ratio	24.1 x	22.3 x	-24.9 x	46.2 x	22.6 x	16.2 x	11.6 x	11.3 x
Yield	1.1%	1.06%	0.67%	0.67%	0.95%	1.45%	1.81%	1.99%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.09 x	1.19 x	1.25 x	1.23 x	1.07 x	1.23 x	0.87 x	0.86 x
EV / Revenue	2.3 x	2.33 x	2.83 x	2.73 x	2.24 x	2.36 x	1.92 x	1.89 x
EV / EBITDA	11.8 x	12.9 x	32.6 x	17.2 x	12.5 x	11.8 x	9.29 x	9.39 x
EV / FCF	118 x	205 x	-52.5 x	38.5 x	45 x	49.8 x	47.1 x	48.4 x
FCF Yield	0.85%	0.49%	-1.91%	2.59%	2.22%	2.01%	2.12%	2.07%
Price to Book	1.46 x	1.69 x	1.4 x	1.37 x	1.38 x	1.46 x	1.04 x	0.96 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	211,269	206,135	208,622	208,621	206,717	206,714	-	-
Reference price ²	3,195	3,770	2,976	2,979	3,170	2,767	2,767	2,767
Announcement Date	4/26/19	4/30/20	4/30/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	4/30/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	617,543	653,874	496,326	506,023	614,751	635,964	654,300	661,613
EBITDA ¹	120,772	118,095	43,087	80,302	110,042	126,799	135,000	132,819
EBIT ¹	67,295	62,653	-13,577	24,732	56,688	73,883	73,852	75,846
Operating Margin	10.9%	9.58%	-2.74%	4.89%	9.22%	11.62%	11.29%	11.46%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	41,616	54,157	-22,279	23,900	45,159	67,848	70,400	73,000
Net income ¹	28,024	35,530	-24,965	13,453	29,179	48,164	49,080	50,410
Net margin	4.54%	5.43%	-5.03%	2.66%	4.75%	7.57%	7.5%	7.62%
EPS ²	132.6	168.8	-119.7	64.49	140.1	233.0	238.9	245.8
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,097	7,415	-26,779	35,887	30,657	30,065	26,634	25,790
FCF margin	1.96%	1.13%	-5.4%	7.09%	4.99%	4.73%	4.07%	3.9%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	10.02%	6.28%	-	44.69%	27.86%	23.71%	19.73%	19.42%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	43.17%	20.87%	-	266.76%	105.07%	62.42%	54.27%	51.16%
Dividend per Share ²	35.00	40.00	20.00	20.00	30.00	55.00	50.00	55.00
Announcement Date	4/26/19	4/30/20	4/30/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	4/30/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	334,963	318,911	229,668	121,900	233,831	133,902	138,290	139,026	146,396	285,422	161,914	167,415	157,375	151,207	308,582	158,136	169,246
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	37,173	25,480	-16,618	1,693	6,678	13,572	4,482	14,328	9,769	24,097	21,364	11,227	23,658	15,429	39,087	22,319	12,477
Operating Margin	11.1%	7.99%	-7.24%	1.39%	2.86%	10.14%	3.24%	10.31%	6.67%	8.44%	13.19%	6.71%	15.03%	10.2%	12.67%	14.11%	7.37%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	33,528	-	-23,581	-	6,231	14,584	-	13,504	6,877	20,381	21,661	-	23,342	-	37,735	21,131	-
Net income	22,384	-	-22,437	-1,118	1,664	10,498	1,291	9,008	4,022	13,030	15,243	906	16,289	10,086	26,375	14,539	-
Net margin	6.68%	-	-9.77%	-0.92%	0.71%	7.84%	0.93%	6.48%	2.75%	4.57%	9.41%	0.54%	10.35%	6.67%	8.55%	9.19%	-
EPS	106.0	-	-107.6	-5.360	7.980	50.32	6.190	43.18	19.28	62.46	73.06	4.540	78.80	48.79	127.6	70.33	-
Dividend per Share	20.00	-	10.00	-	10.00	-	-	-	-	15.00	-	-	-	-	25.00	-	-
Announcement Date	10/31/19	4/30/20	10/30/20	10/29/21	10/29/21	2/4/22	4/28/22	8/3/22	11/2/22	11/2/22	2/8/23	4/28/23	8/2/23	11/2/23	11/2/23	2/7/24	4/30/24

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	746,604	745,886	784,454	761,673	722,922	716,293	682,312	675,722
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	6.182 x	6.316 x	18.21 x	9.485 x	6.57 x	5.649 x	5.054 x	5.088 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,097	7,415	-26,779	35,887	30,657	30,065	26,635	25,791
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	6.2%	7.7%	-5.5%	3%	6.3%	9.5%	9.6%	8.94%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.86%	3.54%	-0.59%	1.63%	3.2%	4.19%	4.2%	3.49%
Assets ¹	725,933	1,003,386	4,212,862	827,709	912,405	1,150,812	1,168,583	1,443,364
Book Value Per Share ²	2,184	2,232	2,133	2,169	2,297	2,591	2,673	2,875
Cash Flow per Share ²	386.0	432.0	152.0	331.0	396.0	489.0	531.0	556.0
Capex ¹	87,466	93,721	80,653	56,149	70,458	85,349	78,250	82,500
Capex / Sales	14.16%	14.33%	16.25%	11.1%	11.46%	13.42%	11.96%	12.47%
Announcement Date	4/26/19	4/30/20	4/30/21	4/28/22	4/28/23	4/30/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Tobu Railway Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

D+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,767 JPY

Average target price

4,075 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+47.27%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-26.97%	3.68B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-3.29%	21.94B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+24.24%	10.5B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+7.46%	9.91B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+6.57%	7.07B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-10.72%	6.19B
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-12.67%	6.09B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+14.46%	4.34B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-21.33%	4.3B
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-21.97%	3.86B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea