SAFARICOM PLC |
End-of-day quote
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|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 18.1 KES | -1.36% |
|
+1.12% | +30.22% |
| May. 09 | Transcript : Safaricom PLC, 2024 Earnings Call, May 09, 2024 | |
| May. 09 | Transcript : Safaricom PLC, 2024 Earnings Call, May 09, 2024 |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 1,103,803 | 1,059,731 | 1,452,372 | 1,368,234 | 725,184 | 735,201 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 1,079,763 | 1,040,971 | 1,440,408 | 1,402,766 | 788,628 | 711,161 | 849,895 | 848,092 |
| P/E ratio | 17.7 x | 14.4 x | 21.2 x | 19.6 x | 11.7 x | 11.3 x | 9.59 x | 8.49 x |
| Yield | 4.54% | 5.29% | 3.78% | 4.07% | 6.63% | 6.32% | 7.53% | 8.87% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 4.41 x | 4.04 x | 5.5 x | 4.59 x | 2.33 x | 2.04 x | 1.87 x | 1.72 x |
| EV / Revenue | 4.31 x | 3.96 x | 5.46 x | 4.71 x | 2.54 x | 2.04 x | 2.16 x | 1.98 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.69 x | 7.54 x | 10.7 x | 9.41 x | 5.64 x | 4.36 x | 4.6 x | 4.21 x |
| EV / FCF | 17.1 x | 14.8 x | 22.3 x | 22 x | 15.8 x | 26.6 x | 20.8 x | 12.1 x |
| FCF Yield | 5.84% | 6.75% | 4.48% | 4.54% | 6.32% | 3.76% | 4.8% | 8.26% |
| Price to Book | 7.65 x | 7.4 x | 10.6 x | 9.81 x | 3.87 x | 4.21 x | 3.55 x | 3.25 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 27.55 | 26.45 | 36.25 | 34.15 | 18.10 | 18.35 | 18.35 | 18.35 |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | 5/9/24 | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: März | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 250,280 | 262,560 | 264,026 | 298,078 | 310,905 | 349,447 | 393,050 | 427,820 |
| EBITDA 1 | 124,300 | 138,040 | 134,129 | 149,062 | 139,862 | 163,293 | 184,776 | 201,286 |
| EBIT 1 | 88,970 | 101,490 | 96,165 | 109,129 | 84,997 | 80,345 | 96,316 | 111,678 |
| Operating Margin | 35.55% | 38.65% | 36.42% | 36.61% | 27.34% | 22.99% | 24.5% | 26.1% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 91,220 | 105,770 | 93,636 | 102,213 | 88,345 | 84,687 | 88,967 | 102,731 |
| Net income 1 | 62,490 | 73,660 | 68,676 | 69,648 | 62,269 | 62,992 | 51,968 | 62,252 |
| Net margin | 24.97% | 28.05% | 26.01% | 23.37% | 20.03% | 18.03% | 13.22% | 14.55% |
| EPS 2 | 1.560 | 1.840 | 1.710 | 1.740 | 1.550 | 1.570 | 1.913 | 2.161 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 63,110 | 70,270 | 64,516 | 63,670 | 49,820 | 31,831 | 40,812 | 70,074 |
| FCF margin | 25.22% | 26.76% | 24.44% | 21.36% | 16.02% | 9.46% | 10.38% | 16.38% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 50.77% | 50.91% | 48.1% | 42.71% | 35.62% | 19.35% | 22.09% | 34.81% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 100.99% | 95.4% | 93.94% | 91.42% | 80.01% | 64.71% | 78.53% | 112.56% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 1.250 | 1.400 | 1.370 | 1.390 | 1.200 | 1.159 | 1.381 | 1.628 |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | 5/9/24 | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2020 S1 | 2021 S2 | 2022 S1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 129,930 | - | 146,368 |
| EBITDA 1 | 68,370 | - | 77,405 |
| EBIT 1 | 50,250 | - | 57,912 |
| Operating Margin | 38.67% | - | 39.57% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | 51,320 | - | - |
| Net income 1 | 35,200 | - | 37,172 |
| Net margin | 27.09% | - | 25.4% |
| EPS 2 | 0.8800 | - | 0.9200 |
| Dividend per Share | - | 0.9200 | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/1/19 | 5/13/21 | 11/10/21 |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | - | - | - | 34,531 | 63,444 | 110,697 | 114,695 | 112,891 |
| Net Cash position 1 | 24,040 | 18,760 | 11,964 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | 0.2317 x | 0.4536 x | 0.673 x | 0.6207 x | 0.5609 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 63,110 | 70,270 | 64,516 | 63,670 | 49,820 | 31,831 | 40,812 | 70,074 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 46.6% | 51.3% | 48.9% | 50.3% | 38.1% | 35.2% | 31.9% | 35% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 34.7% | 36.3% | 30.9% | 24.1% | - | - | 6.4% | 5.9% |
| Assets 1 | 179,960 | 202,850 | 221,930 | 288,714 | - | - | 812,005 | 1,055,124 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 3.600 | 3.570 | 3.440 | 3.480 | 4.680 | 4.360 | 5.170 | 5.650 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 2.490 | 2.760 | 2.620 | 2.770 | 2.900 | 3.810 | 3.410 | 4.000 |
| Capex 1 | 37,250 | 36,100 | 34,960 | 49,779 | 66,331 | 75,613 | 71,875 | 86,442 |
| Capex / Sales | 14.88% | 13.75% | 13.24% | 16.7% | 21.33% | 22.48% | 18.29% | 20.21% |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | 5/9/24 | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
18.35
KES
Average target price
23.88
KES
Spread / Average Target
+30.15%
EPS Revisions
Annual profits - Rate of surprise
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +32.01% | 5.67B | |
| +38.11% | 102B | |
| +11.37% | 58.91B | |
| -5.69% | 25.65B | |
| -13.17% | 21.3B | |
| +3.77% | 10.45B | |
| -6.62% | 9.52B | |
| +6.39% | 9.44B | |
| -30.13% | 7.72B | |
| +19.71% | 6.8B |
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