Financials Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

Equities

9048

JP3649800004

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-06-11 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,742 ^JPY	-1.80%		-2.79%	-23.02%

May. 27	Tosei Enters Business Alliance with Nagoya Railroad; Transfer 15.4% of Holdings to Nagoya Railroad	MT
May. 24	Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. signed share transfer agreement to acquire 15.5% stake in Tosei Corporation from Seiichiro Yamaguchi for ¥17.7 billion.	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	587,251	595,900	517,785	426,721	401,715	342,449	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	964,911	971,623	927,252	844,360	780,249	863,146	842,405	802,208
P/E ratio	19.3 x	20.6 x	-18 x	45.5 x	21.3 x	17.4 x	12.2 x	11.3 x
Yield	0.9%	0.83%	-	0.58%	0.98%	1.27%	1.81%	1.82%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.94 x	0.96 x	1.08 x	0.87 x	0.73 x	0.71 x	0.51 x	0.53 x
EV / Revenue	1.55 x	1.56 x	1.93 x	1.72 x	1.41 x	1.44 x	1.26 x	1.23 x
EV / EBITDA	10.7 x	10.9 x	40.3 x	20.4 x	12.7 x	11.7 x	9.93 x	8.93 x
EV / FCF	76.8 x	-320 x	-32.8 x	2,882 x	423 x	-40.6 x	-23.8 x	194 x
FCF Yield	1.3%	-0.31%	-3.05%	0.03%	0.24%	-2.47%	-4.21%	0.52%
Price to Book	1.53 x	1.48 x	1.39 x	1.11 x	0.99 x	0.97 x	0.74 x	0.72 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	191,599	196,667	196,652	196,646	196,534	196,584	-	-
Reference price ²	3,065	3,030	2,633	2,170	2,044	1,742	1,742	1,742
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	5/10/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	622,568	622,916	481,645	490,919	551,504	601,121	670,600	650,967
EBITDA ¹	90,040	88,958	22,997	41,470	61,393	73,629	84,800	89,850
EBIT ¹	49,456	47,363	-16,354	2,932	22,731	34,750	44,600	47,690
Operating Margin	7.94%	7.6%	-3.4%	0.6%	4.12%	5.78%	6.65%	7.33%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	46,120	47,337	-22,525	16,069	28,634	34,546	45,200	46,820
Net income ¹	30,457	28,879	-28,769	9,370	18,850	24,400	29,627	30,837
Net margin	4.89%	4.64%	-5.97%	1.91%	3.42%	4.06%	4.42%	4.74%
EPS ²	158.9	146.9	-146.3	47.65	95.91	124.1	142.6	153.5
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,570	-3,039	-28,252	293	1,845	-21,285	-35,438	4,139
FCF margin	2.02%	-0.49%	-5.87%	0.06%	0.33%	-3.54%	-5.28%	0.64%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	13.96%	-	-	0.71%	3.01%	-	-	4.61%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	41.27%	-	-	3.13%	9.79%	-	-	13.42%
Dividend per Share ²	27.50	25.00	-	12.50	20.00	27.50	31.50	31.67
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	5/10/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	316,128	226,942	115,837	224,284	135,863	125,202	137,923	263,125	143,543	144,836	140,977	142,751	283,728	159,755	157,638	156,000	158,200	180,800	175,600
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	29,101	-14,987	-831	-2,644	9,311	4,214	5,966	10,180	10,626	1,925	7,760	8,140	15,900	14,220	4,630	9,800	11,000	14,200	9,000
Operating Margin	9.21%	-6.6%	-0.72%	-1.18%	6.85%	3.37%	4.33%	3.87%	7.4%	1.33%	5.5%	5.7%	5.6%	8.9%	2.94%	6.28%	6.95%	7.85%	5.13%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	30,488	-11,566	-	3,543	12,052	5,401	-	12,177	12,463	-	9,538	-	14,753	15,444	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	19,357	-12,404	-	1,016	7,185	3,187	-	7,746	8,154	-	7,243	-	9,980	11,551	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	6.12%	-5.47%	-	0.45%	5.29%	2.55%	-	2.94%	5.68%	-	5.14%	-	3.52%	7.23%	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	98.49	-63.08	-	5.170	36.54	16.22	-	39.42	41.48	-	36.86	-	50.78	58.76	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/8/19	11/10/20	11/8/21	11/8/21	2/7/22	8/8/22	11/8/22	11/8/22	2/10/23	5/11/23	8/9/23	11/9/23	11/9/23	2/13/24	5/10/24	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	377,660	375,723	409,467	417,639	378,534	437,334	499,956	459,759
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.194 x	4.224 x	17.81 x	10.07 x	6.166 x	5.94 x	5.896 x	5.117 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,570	-3,039	-28,252	293	1,845	-21,285	-35,438	4,139
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.1%	7.2%	-7.4%	2.5%	4.8%	5.8%	6.74%	6.67%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.56%	4.27%	-0.69%	1.1%	2.18%	2.96%	3.4%	2.62%
Assets ¹	667,658	675,684	4,160,496	848,194	864,588	823,618	871,373	1,178,020
Book Value Per Share ²	2,002	2,053	1,892	1,949	2,058	2,228	2,353	2,425
Cash Flow per Share ²	369.0	357.0	53.80	244.0	291.0	322.0	319.0	373.0
Capex ¹	54,834	73,286	47,937	49,887	62,351	76,818	98,200	69,233
Capex / Sales	8.81%	11.76%	9.95%	10.16%	11.31%	12.78%	14.64%	10.64%
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/25/20	5/11/21	5/11/22	5/11/23	5/10/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

1,742 JPY

Average target price

2,423 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+39.11%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
NAGOYA RAILROAD CO., LTD.	-23.02%	2.22B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-3.29%	22.05B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+5.93%	9.69B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+14.94%	9.37B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+7.55%	7.05B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-6.91%	6.39B
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-18.08%	5.67B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+20.01%	4.54B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-23.30%	4.12B
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-27.73%	3.64B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea