HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION |
Real-time Estimate
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 56.9 USD | -2.58% |
|
+3.07% | +5.11% |
| 12:00pm | US refiners reward shareholders with big returns despite softer Q1 profits | RE |
| May. 15 | HF Sinclair Corporation Announces Executive Changes, Effective May 28, 2024 | CI |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 8,184 | 4,188 | 5,327 | 10,416 | 11,114 | 11,224 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 9,755 | 5,963 | 8,165 | 12,006 | 12,499 | 12,533 | 12,256 | 12,322 |
| P/E ratio | 11 x | -6.95 x | 9.67 x | 3.63 x | 6.7 x | 8.71 x | 9.63 x | 9.67 x |
| Yield | 2.64% | 5.42% | 1.07% | 2.31% | 3.24% | 3.33% | 3.48% | 3.52% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.47 x | 0.37 x | 0.29 x | 0.27 x | 0.35 x | 0.36 x | 0.36 x | 0.38 x |
| EV / Revenue | 0.56 x | 0.53 x | 0.44 x | 0.31 x | 0.39 x | 0.4 x | 0.39 x | 0.41 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.69 x | 14.5 x | 8.92 x | 2.54 x | 3.9 x | 5.17 x | 5.16 x | 5.52 x |
| EV / FCF | 7.77 x | 46.7 x | -20.1 x | 3.69 x | 6.54 x | 10.9 x | 11.6 x | 12 x |
| FCF Yield | 12.9% | 2.14% | -4.98% | 27.1% | 15.3% | 9.18% | 8.61% | 8.34% |
| Price to Book | 1.42 x | 0.81 x | 0.94 x | 1.11 x | 1.09 x | 1.07 x | 1 x | 0.91 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 161,390 | 162,017 | 162,496 | 200,731 | 199,997 | 192,157 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 50.71 | 25.85 | 32.78 | 51.89 | 55.57 | 58.41 | 58.41 | 58.41 |
| Announcement Date | 2/20/20 | 2/24/21 | 2/23/22 | 2/24/23 | 2/21/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 17,487 | 11,184 | 18,389 | 38,205 | 31,964 | 31,528 | 31,230 | 29,833 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,715 | 412.2 | 915.7 | 4,734 | 3,207 | 2,423 | 2,374 | 2,234 |
| EBIT 1 | 1,289 | -127.7 | 357.9 | 4,179 | 2,514 | 1,739 | 1,564 | 1,465 |
| Operating Margin | 7.37% | -1.14% | 1.95% | 10.94% | 7.87% | 5.52% | 5.01% | 4.91% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 1,172 | -747 | 787.2 | 3,936 | 2,153 | 1,635 | 1,454 | 1,390 |
| Net income 1 | 772.4 | -601.4 | 558.3 | 2,923 | 1,590 | 1,299 | 1,129 | 1,090 |
| Net margin | 4.42% | -5.38% | 3.04% | 7.65% | 4.97% | 4.12% | 3.61% | 3.65% |
| EPS 2 | 4.610 | -3.720 | 3.390 | 14.28 | 8.290 | 6.706 | 6.064 | 6.042 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 1,255 | 127.7 | -406.7 | 3,253 | 1,912 | 1,151 | 1,055 | 1,028 |
| FCF margin | 7.18% | 1.14% | -2.21% | 8.52% | 5.98% | 3.65% | 3.38% | 3.45% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 73.19% | 30.99% | - | 68.72% | 59.61% | 47.49% | 44.42% | 46.01% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 162.46% | - | - | 111.31% | 120.27% | 88.54% | 93.44% | 94.28% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 1.340 | 1.400 | 0.3500 | 1.200 | 1.800 | 1.948 | 2.035 | 2.057 |
| Announcement Date | 2/20/20 | 2/24/21 | 2/23/22 | 2/24/23 | 2/21/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 5,623 | 7,459 | 11,162 | 10,599 | 8,985 | 7,565 | 7,834 | 8,905 | 7,660 | 7,027 | 8,101 | 8,144 | 7,458 | 7,632 | 7,787 |
| EBITDA 1 | 126 | 376.7 | 1,853 | 1,500 | 1,004 | 704.8 | 868.2 | 1,206 | 427.7 | 399.1 | 607.9 | 702.1 | 489.8 | 516.5 | 691.5 |
| EBIT 1 | 6.877 | 250.3 | 1,714 | 1,375 | 838.9 | 556.6 | 700.4 | 1,034 | 223 | 192.5 | 574.9 | 520.3 | 348.3 | 347.6 | 481.2 |
| Operating Margin | 0.12% | 3.36% | 15.36% | 12.98% | 9.34% | 7.36% | 8.94% | 11.61% | 2.91% | 2.74% | 7.1% | 6.39% | 4.67% | 4.55% | 6.18% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | -43.15 | 206.6 | 1,636 | 1,280 | 813 | 484.7 | 680.4 | 1,060 | -72.68 | 402.1 | 441.2 | 563.1 | 196.3 | 233 | 573 |
| Net income 1 | -39.53 | 160 | 1,221 | 954.4 | 587 | 353.3 | 507.7 | 790.9 | -62.18 | 314.7 | 385.9 | 433.7 | 176.2 | 198 | 420.8 |
| Net margin | -0.7% | 2.14% | 10.94% | 9% | 6.53% | 4.67% | 6.48% | 8.88% | -0.81% | 4.48% | 4.76% | 5.32% | 2.36% | 2.59% | 5.4% |
| EPS 2 | -0.2400 | 0.9000 | 5.430 | 4.450 | 2.920 | 1.790 | 2.620 | 4.230 | -0.3400 | 1.570 | 1.916 | 2.310 | 0.9360 | 1.048 | 2.252 |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 0.4500 | 0.4500 | 0.4500 | 0.4500 | - | 0.4954 | 0.4954 | 0.4954 | 0.5302 | 0.5302 |
| Announcement Date | 2/23/22 | 5/9/22 | 8/8/22 | 11/7/22 | 2/24/23 | 5/4/23 | 8/3/23 | 11/2/23 | 2/21/24 | 5/8/24 | - | - | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 1,570 | 1,774 | 2,838 | 1,590 | 1,385 | 1,309 | 1,032 | 1,098 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.916 x | 4.304 x | 3.1 x | 0.3359 x | 0.432 x | 0.5403 x | 0.4345 x | 0.4914 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 1,255 | 128 | -407 | 3,253 | 1,912 | 1,151 | 1,055 | 1,028 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 13.8% | -2.51% | 4.61% | 39.1% | 16.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 7.1% | -1.18% | 2.05% | 18.8% | 8.87% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| Assets 1 | 10,886 | 50,897 | 27,262 | 15,521 | 17,921 | 17,561 | 18,210 | 15,801 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 35.70 | 31.90 | 35.00 | 46.90 | 51.20 | 54.50 | 58.60 | 64.30 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 9.250 | 2.830 | 2.500 | 18.60 | 12.10 | 8.530 | 9.480 | 9.890 |
| Capex 1 | 294 | 330 | 813 | 524 | 385 | 584 | 570 | 600 |
| Capex / Sales | 1.68% | 2.95% | 4.42% | 1.37% | 1.21% | 1.85% | 1.82% | 2.01% |
| Announcement Date | 2/20/20 | 2/24/21 | 2/23/22 | 2/24/23 | 2/21/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
17
Last Close Price
58.41
USD
Average target price
65.91
USD
Spread / Average Target
+12.84%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.11% | 11.22B | |
| +10.69% | 20.92B | |
| +34.20% | 11.31B | |
| +35.70% | 8.9B | |
| -2.79% | 7.59B | |
| +60.41% | 4.5B | |
| +5.31% | 3.39B | |
| +17.17% | 3.26B | |
| -2.08% | 2.98B | |
| +19.71% | 2.82B |
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- Financials HF Sinclair Corporation
