Financials China Vanke Co., Ltd.

Equities

000002

CNE0000000T2

Real Estate Development & Operations

End-of-day quote Shenzhen S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-23 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
8.99 ^CNY	-5.96%		-0.11%	-14.05%

May. 24	Wall Street Cues, Property Woes, Central Banks Curb Asian Stock Markets	MT
May. 24	Hong Kong Shares End Week in Red; Sunho Biologics Gains in Debut	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	359,826	321,735	220,246	202,298	115,413	99,507	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	453,608	387,691	340,581	382,735	339,225	339,295	290,345	281,984
P/E ratio	9.27 x	7.93 x	10.2 x	9.33 x	10.2 x	11.8 x	10.2 x	11.1 x
Yield	3.25%	4.36%	4.91%	3.74%	-	-	1.62%	0.87%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.98 x	0.77 x	0.49 x	0.4 x	0.25 x	0.28 x	0.31 x	0.3 x
EV / Revenue	1.23 x	0.93 x	0.75 x	0.76 x	0.73 x	0.95 x	0.9 x	0.85 x
EV / EBITDA	5.16 x	3.53 x	5.87 x	6.49 x	9.42 x	9.3 x	8.39 x	7.55 x
EV / FCF	11.5 x	8.42 x	-63.1 x	-38.3 x	-83.2 x	9.39 x	8.68 x	-71.6 x
FCF Yield	8.72%	11.9%	-1.59%	-2.61%	-1.2%	10.7%	11.5%	-1.4%
Price to Book	1.93 x	1.49 x	0.97 x	0.87 x	0.49 x	0.41 x	0.39 x	0.39 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	11,302,143	11,617,732	11,625,383	11,557,753	11,857,753	11,857,753	-	-
Reference price ²	32.18	28.70	19.76	18.20	10.46	8.990	8.990	8.990
Announcement Date	3/17/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	367,894	419,112	452,798	503,838	465,739	357,863	323,712	330,827
EBITDA ¹	87,921	109,758	58,013	58,951	36,015	36,474	34,625	37,356
EBIT ¹	76,613	79,959	52,531	52,007	29,252	24,697	31,165	26,415
Operating Margin	20.82%	19.08%	11.6%	10.32%	6.28%	6.9%	9.63%	7.98%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	106,116	79,676	52,223	52,386	29,805	24,739	29,362	26,291
Net income ¹	38,872	41,516	22,524	22,618	12,163	9,639	10,069	10,764
Net margin	10.57%	9.91%	4.97%	4.49%	2.61%	2.69%	3.11%	3.25%
EPS ²	3.470	3.620	1.940	1.950	1.030	0.7608	0.8843	0.8110
Free Cash Flow ¹	39,539	46,042	-5,401	-9,998	-4,077	36,150	33,448	-3,939
FCF margin	10.75%	10.99%	-1.19%	-1.98%	-0.88%	10.1%	10.33%	-1.19%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.97%	41.95%	-	-	-	99.11%	96.6%	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	101.71%	110.9%	-	-	-	375.05%	332.19%	-
Dividend per Share ²	1.045	1.250	0.9700	0.6800	-	-	0.1454	0.0780
Announcement Date	3/17/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	228,574	146,350	272,762	167,111	181,312	285,687	62,667	144,249	206,916	130,757	166,165	296,922	68,474	132,419	200,893	89,416	175,431	264,846	61,594	53,516	142,709	53,516	189,686	214,063	51,441	104,138	135,502	203,253
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-	19,395	-	5,608	20,243	-	14,604	18,497	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	9,522	-	3,717	11,150	-	4,493	8,986	-	-
EBIT ¹	-	-	-	-	19,596	30,543	3,970	20,268	30,598	13,209	14,560	-	4,091	16,244	27,824	7,877	1,039	-	4,658	2,339	-	2,339	10,188	-	2,435	6,020	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-	10.81%	10.69%	6.33%	14.05%	14.79%	10.1%	8.76%	-	5.97%	12.27%	13.85%	8.81%	0.59%	-	7.56%	4.37%	-	4.37%	5.37%	-	4.73%	5.78%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	-	12,508	29,008	-	5,835	-	1,429	10,794	-	4,828	5,567	-	1,446	8,425	-	3,751	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	8.55%	10.63%	-	3.22%	-	2.28%	7.48%	-	3.69%	3.35%	-	2.11%	6.36%	-	4.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	-	-	-	-	0.5000	-	0.1229	0.9300	-	0.4178	0.4800	-	0.1251	0.7100	-	0.3200	-0.1300	-	-0.0305	0.1300	-	0.1300	0.6300	-	0.0891	0.1165	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	0.9700	-	-	-	-	-	0.6800	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/17/20	8/27/20	3/30/21	8/29/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/28/22	8/30/22	8/30/22	10/28/22	3/30/23	3/30/23	4/28/23	8/30/23	8/30/23	10/27/23	3/28/24	3/28/24	4/29/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	93,782	65,956	120,335	180,437	223,812	239,788	190,838	182,476
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.067 x	0.6009 x	2.074 x	3.061 x	6.214 x	6.574 x	5.237 x	4.885 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	39,539	46,042	-5,401	-9,998	-4,077	36,150	33,448	-3,939
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	22.5%	20.1%	9.78%	9.48%	4.91%	4.62%	4.32%	3.65%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.39%	2.31%	1.18%	1.22%	0.75%	1.12%	0.85%	0.82%
Assets ¹	1,629,174	1,799,547	1,903,976	1,847,858	1,631,327	857,579	1,188,267	1,312,649
Book Value Per Share ²	16.60	19.30	20.30	21.00	21.20	21.90	22.90	23.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	4.040	4.580	0.3500	0.2400	0.3300	0.5800	1.040	1.020
Capex ¹	6,148	7,146	9,514	12,749	7,989	2,065	11,607	4,767
Capex / Sales	1.67%	1.71%	2.1%	2.53%	1.72%	0.58%	3.59%	1.58%
Announcement Date	3/17/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Vanke Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

8.99 CNY

Average target price

8.381 CNY

Spread / Average Target

-6.78%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Residential Real Estate Development

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CHINA VANKE CO., LTD.	-14.05%	13.74B
VONOVIA SE	-2.42%	24.63B
AKELIUS RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AB	+12.29%	11.3B
DEUTSCHE WOHNEN SE	-25.65%	7.67B
VINHOMES	-7.87%	6.8B
VINGROUP	+0.78%	6.57B
LEG IMMOBILIEN SE	+0.63%	6.42B
IIDA GROUP HOLDINGS CO., LTD.	-1.11%	3.73B
BRIGADE ENTERPRISES LIMITED	+40.72%	3.52B
OPEN HOUSE GROUP CO., LTD.	+7.34%	3.39B

Residential Real Estate Development