Financials China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Equities

1055

CNE1000002T6

Airlines

Market Closed - Hong Kong S.E. Other stock markets 04:08:10 2024-05-21 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3.27 ^HKD	-1.51%		+4.81%	-1.21%

May. 16	China Southern Airlines’ Passenger Capacity, Traffic Up in April	MT
May. 16	China Southern Airlines Company Limited Reports Operating Results for the Month and Year to Date Ended April 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	78,905	82,476	104,417	123,100	91,701	94,804	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	262,310	220,356	256,980	232,145	217,443	294,743	282,403	273,033
P/E ratio	21.3 x	-5.05 x	-5.07 x	-2.36 x	-13.1 x	12.3 x	7.96 x	5.37 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	0.23%	1.29%	0.99%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.51 x	0.89 x	1.03 x	1.41 x	0.57 x	0.52 x	0.49 x	0.44 x
EV / Revenue	1.7 x	2.38 x	2.53 x	2.67 x	1.36 x	1.62 x	1.47 x	1.28 x
EV / EBITDA	7.49 x	24.6 x	21.2 x	-10.2 x	25.1 x	8.94 x	7.5 x	6.51 x
EV / FCF	16.9 x	-110 x	-92.6 x	-67.6 x	7.13 x	-44.8 x	117 x	50.8 x
FCF Yield	5.93%	-0.91%	-1.08%	-1.48%	14%	-2.23%	0.86%	1.97%
Price to Book	0.9 x	0.86 x	0.91 x	1.87 x	-	1.26 x	1.04 x	0.89 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	12,267,172	15,329,302	16,948,417	18,120,890	18,120,906	18,120,908	-	-
Reference price ²	4.683	3.888	3.805	4.487	3.008	3.031	3.031	3.031
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	154,322	92,561	101,644	87,059	159,929	181,694	192,684	213,446
EBITDA ¹	35,033	8,940	12,142	-22,852	8,674	32,983	37,646	41,948
EBIT ¹	3,202	-16,550	-14,696	-32,199	-2,142	7,845	16,069	16,211
Operating Margin	2.07%	-17.88%	-14.46%	-36.99%	-1.34%	4.32%	8.34%	7.59%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,070	-15,195	-13,910	-31,526	-1,645	5,477	10,896	15,639
Net income ¹	2,651	-10,847	-12,106	-32,682	-4,209	3,976	6,833	12,281
Net margin	1.72%	-11.72%	-11.91%	-37.54%	-2.63%	2.19%	3.55%	5.75%
EPS ²	0.2200	-0.7700	-0.7500	-1.900	-0.2300	0.2458	0.3806	0.5647
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	-6,576	2,419	5,377
FCF margin	10.08%	-2.17%	-2.73%	-3.94%	19.07%	-3.62%	1.26%	2.52%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.4%	-	-	-	351.64%	-	6.43%	12.82%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	586.68%	-	-	-	-	-	35.4%	43.78%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	0.006910	0.0390	0.0300
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	81,383	38,964	-	23,149	50,068	21,471	19,346	40,817	29,344	16,898	46,242	34,055	37,775	71,830	47,661	40,438	88,099	44,601	43,799	49,450	45,178
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-2,841	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8,799	13,314	4,457
EBIT	-	-	-	-7,298	-	-5,907	-9,537	-10,564	-5,696	-11,059	-15,671	-1,467	-475	1,433	5,586	-5,786	-	1,519	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-31.53%	-	-27.51%	-49.3%	-25.88%	-19.41%	-65.45%	-33.89%	-4.31%	-1.26%	1.99%	11.72%	-14.31%	-	3.41%	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5,483	-10,917	-16,420	-	-361	-	5,727	-5,611	-	1,583	2,461	7,191	-1,805
Net income	-	-	-4,690	-5,984	-7,416	-4,496	-6,992	-11,488	-	-	-21,209	-1,898	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-25.85%	-14.81%	-20.94%	-36.14%	-28.15%	-	-	-45.87%	-5.57%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.0800	-0.6400	-	-	-0.4500	-	-	-0.6800	-	-	-1.220	-	-	-0.1600	-	-	-0.0700	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/30/20	8/28/20	8/27/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/28/22	8/30/22	8/30/22	10/28/22	3/28/23	3/28/23	4/28/23	8/29/23	8/29/23	10/27/23	3/27/24	3/27/24	4/29/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	183,405	137,880	152,563	109,045	125,742	199,939	187,599	178,228
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.235 x	15.42 x	12.56 x	-4.772 x	14.5 x	6.062 x	4.983 x	4.249 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	-6,576	2,419	5,377
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.08%	-14.6%	-17.6%	-62.2%	-10.8%	9.09%	18.9%	18.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.03%	-3.43%	-3.73%	-10.3%	-1.36%	1.7%	2.35%	3.15%
Assets ¹	257,604	316,370	324,819	317,310	310,604	233,885	290,754	389,866
Book Value Per Share ²	5.230	4.540	4.190	2.400	-	2.400	2.900	3.400
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.540	-0.4400	0.8300	0.2000	-	1.680	1.780	1.900
Capex ¹	15,622	11,061	16,147	6,897	9,633	18,386	19,631	17,833
Capex / Sales	10.12%	11.95%	15.89%	7.92%	6.02%	10.12%	10.19%	8.35%
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3.031 CNY

Average target price

3.636 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+19.93%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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