ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LIMITED |
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After market 06:42:25 pm | |||
| 79.51 USD | -6.02% |
|
79.16 | -0.45% |
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Valuation
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 3,173,969 | 3,695,673 | 4,027,830 | 1,854,401 | 1,800,338 | 1,489,040 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 3,118,293 | 3,490,600 | 3,845,890 | 1,805,847 | 1,768,606 | 1,310,704 | 1,126,512 | 1,014,829 |
| P/E ratio | 36.7 x | 24.6 x | 27.2 x | 30.3 x | 25.6 x | 16.7 x | 13.6 x | 11.9 x |
| Yield | - | - | - | - | - | 1.19% | 1.23% | 1.3% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 8.42 x | 7.25 x | 5.62 x | 2.17 x | 2.07 x | 1.39 x | 1.44 x | 1.36 x |
| EV / Revenue | 8.27 x | 6.85 x | 5.36 x | 2.12 x | 2.04 x | 1.39 x | 1.09 x | 0.93 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.6 x | 22.1 x | 19.5 x | 11.4 x | 10.1 x | 6.84 x | 5.65 x | 4.66 x |
| EV / FCF | 29.8 x | 24.4 x | 20 x | 18.3 x | 10.3 x | 7.17 x | 6.58 x | 4.73 x |
| FCF Yield | 3.35% | 4.1% | 5% | 5.48% | 9.71% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 21.1% |
| Price to Book | 6.42 x | 4.79 x | 4.35 x | 1.98 x | 1.87 x | 1.47 x | 1.3 x | 1.17 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 2,592,180 | 2,683,752 | 2,711,119 | 2,687,500 | 2,565,752 | 2,433,625 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 1,224 | 1,377 | 1,486 | 690.0 | 701.7 | 611.9 | 611.9 | 611.9 |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/22/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/26/22 | 5/18/23 | 5/14/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 376,844 | 509,711 | 717,289 | 853,062 | 868,687 | 941,168 | 1,037,201 | 1,092,007 |
| EBITDA 1 | 121,943 | 157,659 | 196,842 | 158,205 | 175,710 | 191,668 | 199,380 | 217,699 |
| EBIT 1 | 57,084 | 91,430 | 89,678 | 69,638 | 100,351 | 113,350 | 113,167 | 156,506 |
| Operating Margin | 15.15% | 17.94% | 12.5% | 8.16% | 11.55% | 12.04% | 10.91% | 14.33% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 96,221 | 166,645 | 165,578 | 59,550 | 89,185 | 101,596 | 103,380 | 157,036 |
| Net income 1 | 87,600 | 149,263 | 150,308 | 61,959 | 72,509 | 79,741 | 102,530 | 130,332 |
| Net margin | 23.25% | 29.28% | 20.96% | 7.26% | 8.35% | 8.47% | 9.89% | 11.94% |
| EPS 2 | 33.38 | 55.93 | 54.70 | 22.74 | 27.46 | 31.24 | 45.09 | 51.57 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 104,478 | 143,109 | 192,263 | 98,874 | 171,663 | 170,714 | 171,206 | 214,460 |
| FCF margin | 27.72% | 28.08% | 26.8% | 11.59% | 19.76% | 18.11% | 16.51% | 19.64% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 85.68% | 90.77% | 97.67% | 62.5% | 97.7% | 87.19% | 85.87% | 98.51% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 119.27% | 95.88% | 127.91% | 159.58% | 236.75% | 180.33% | 166.98% | 164.55% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 7.306 | 7.499 | 7.960 |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/22/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/26/22 | 5/18/23 | 5/14/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: Maart | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2023 S2 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 200,690 | 242,580 | 204,052 | 205,555 | 207,176 | 247,756 | 208,200 | 455,956 | 234,156 | 224,790 | 260,348 | 221,874 | 244,583 | 240,971 | 280,260 | 236,169 |
| EBITDA 1 | 34,840 | 51,364 | 23,373 | 41,114 | 43,311 | 59,162 | 32,123 | - | 52,052 | 49,237 | 59,572 | 30,807 | 50,006 | 47,864 | 61,767 | 39,158 |
| EBIT 1 | 15,006 | 7,068 | 16,717 | 24,943 | 25,137 | 35,031 | 15,240 | 50,271 | 42,490 | 33,584 | 22,511 | 14,765 | 34,190 | 32,047 | 43,586 | 23,489 |
| Operating Margin | 7.48% | 2.91% | 8.19% | 12.13% | 12.13% | 14.14% | 7.32% | 11.03% | 18.15% | 14.94% | 8.65% | 6.65% | 13.98% | 13.3% | 15.55% | 9.95% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 3,946 | 29,326 | -19,560 | 29,177 | -15,759 | 50,459 | 25,308 | - | 36,172 | 38,257 | 17,318 | 9,849 | 34,191 | 32,093 | 42,514 | 21,749 |
| Net income 1 | 5,367 | 20,429 | -16,241 | 22,739 | -20,561 | 46,815 | 23,516 | - | 34,332 | 27,706 | 14,433 | 14,370 | 27,791 | 26,119 | 35,443 | 17,777 |
| Net margin | 2.67% | 8.42% | -7.96% | 11.06% | -9.92% | 18.9% | 11.29% | - | 14.66% | 12.33% | 5.54% | 6.54% | 11.36% | 10.84% | 12.65% | 7.53% |
| EPS 2 | 1.970 | 7.510 | -6.070 | 8.510 | -7.770 | 17.91 | 9.000 | - | 13.30 | 10.77 | 5.650 | 5.409 | 12.38 | 11.22 | 12.95 | 8.612 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.555 | 3.483 |
| Announcement Date | 11/18/21 | 2/24/22 | 5/26/22 | 8/4/22 | 11/17/22 | 2/23/23 | 5/18/23 | 5/18/23 | 8/10/23 | 11/16/23 | 2/7/24 | 5/14/24 | - | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: Maart | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Cash position 1 | 55,676 | 205,073 | 181,940 | 48,554 | 31,732 | 264,700 | 362,529 | 474,212 |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 104,478 | 143,109 | 192,263 | 98,874 | 171,663 | 170,714 | 171,206 | 214,460 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 20.4% | 23.9% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 7.48% | 9.19% | 10.2% | 10.1% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 10.4% | 13.1% | 10% | 8.48% | 4.21% | 6.15% | 5.1% | 6.42% |
| Assets 1 | 841,100 | 1,139,064 | 1,501,601 | 730,861 | 1,724,311 | 1,539,933 | 2,010,392 | 2,031,482 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 191.0 | 288.0 | 341.0 | 348.0 | 375.0 | 417.0 | 469.0 | 522.0 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 57.60 | 67.70 | 84.40 | 52.40 | 75.60 | 54.20 | 69.20 | 69.00 |
| Capex 1 | 46,497 | 37,498 | 39,523 | 42,028 | 30,373 | 39,863 | 42,297 | 46,301 |
| Capex / Sales | 12.34% | 7.36% | 5.51% | 4.93% | 3.5% | 4.23% | 4.08% | 4.24% |
| Announcement Date | 5/15/19 | 5/22/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/26/22 | 5/18/23 | 5/14/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
44
Last Close Price
611.9
CNY
Average target price
763.8
CNY
Spread / Average Target
+24.83%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.58% | 206B | |
| -5.21% | 195B | |
| +48.84% | 97B | |
| +7.15% | 85.04B | |
| -25.51% | 75.75B | |
| +11.02% | 52.49B | |
| +19.44% | 26.33B | |
| +30.24% | 11.04B | |
| -7.66% | 9.12B | |
| -24.78% | 4.97B |
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