Financials Thai Beverage

Equities

Y92

TH0902010014

Distillers & Wineries

Market Closed - Singapore S.E. Other stock markets 05:04:29 2024-05-31 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
0.495 ^SGD	-1.00%		-1.98%	-5.71%

May. 14	Transcript : Thai Beverage Public Company Limited, H1 2024 Earnings Call, May 14, 2024
May. 14	Singaporean Shares Rise as Investors Eye US Inflation Data; EuroSports Plunges 14%	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	492,130	352,213	408,202	397,390	385,459	338,810	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	687,350	534,790	593,525	557,804	548,989	482,539	465,777	449,589
P/E ratio	21.1 x	15.4 x	16.6 x	13.2 x	14.1 x	12 x	11.2 x	10.5 x
Yield	2.45%	3.28%	3.08%	3.79%	3.91%	4.55%	4.8%	5.06%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.84 x	1.39 x	1.7 x	1.46 x	1.38 x	1.18 x	1.13 x	1.1 x
EV / Revenue	2.57 x	2.11 x	2.47 x	2.05 x	1.97 x	1.68 x	1.56 x	1.45 x
EV / EBITDA	16.8 x	13 x	14.3 x	12 x	12.5 x	10.3 x	9.54 x	8.91 x
EV / FCF	20.9 x	16.2 x	20.7 x	13.4 x	20.1 x	15 x	14.1 x	13.1 x
FCF Yield	4.78%	6.16%	4.83%	7.47%	4.97%	6.69%	7.07%	7.61%
Price to Book	4.25 x	2.47 x	2.39 x	1.93 x	1.91 x	1.58 x	1.48 x	1.38 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	25,113,533	25,115,710	25,118,755	25,120,888	25,124,754	25,127,675	-	-
Reference price ²	19.60	14.02	16.25	15.82	15.34	13.48	13.48	13.48
Announcement Date	11/22/19	11/25/20	11/26/21	11/25/22	11/22/23	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	267,357	253,481	240,543	272,359	279,085	287,471	299,092	309,144
EBITDA ¹	40,913	41,124	41,613	46,344	43,971	46,760	48,847	50,453
EBIT ¹	32,507	34,559	33,782	38,583	36,229	38,923	40,605	42,245
Operating Margin	12.16%	13.63%	14.04%	14.17%	12.98%	13.54%	13.58%	13.67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	31,312	32,931	31,973	39,941	36,410	37,561	40,400	42,755
Net income ¹	23,272	22,752	24,645	30,106	27,434	28,597	30,723	32,743
Net margin	8.7%	8.98%	10.25%	11.05%	9.83%	9.95%	10.27%	10.59%
EPS ²	0.9300	0.9100	0.9800	1.200	1.090	1.124	1.205	1.281
Free Cash Flow ¹	32,832	32,919	28,691	41,679	27,287	32,264	32,950	34,204
FCF margin	12.28%	12.99%	11.93%	15.3%	9.78%	11.22%	11.02%	11.06%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	80.25%	80.05%	68.95%	89.94%	62.06%	69%	67.46%	67.79%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	141.08%	144.69%	116.42%	138.44%	99.47%	112.82%	107.25%	104.46%
Dividend per Share ²	0.4800	0.4600	0.5000	0.6000	0.6000	0.6137	0.6469	0.6816
Announcement Date	11/22/19	11/25/20	11/26/21	11/25/22	11/22/23	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: September	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 S1	2025 Q3	2025 S2
Net sales	137,092	116,389	131,252	77,116	-	-	65,100	-	129,416	80,900	-	148,295	130,790	-	147,742	-	-	140,725	-	-	151,916	-	151,916
EBITDA	-	-	-	14,659	-	-	9,824	-	21,132	-	-	-	18,570	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	18,328	-	19,974	-	-	-	-	-	17,238	-	-	21,612	14,617	-	22,829	-	-	18,717	-	-	20,709	-	20,709
Operating Margin	13.37%	-	15.22%	-	-	-	-	-	13.32%	-	-	14.57%	11.18%	-	15.45%	-	-	13.3%	-	-	13.63%	-	13.63%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	18,464	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	13,375	-	-	8,159	7,115	16,318	6,894	6,894	13,789	8,766	7,357	-	-	6,993	-	7,644	4,175	-	11,361	6,679	-	8,180	-
Net margin	9.76%	-	-	10.58%	-	-	10.59%	-	10.65%	10.84%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	-	0.3800	0.5700	0.3300	0.2800	-	0.2700	0.2700	-	0.3500	0.2900	0.6400	0.4500	0.2800	0.6100	0.3043	0.1662	0.5700	0.4522	0.2658	0.6400	0.3256	0.6400
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	0.0800	0.1500	-	0.2300	0.2300	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.2854	-	-	-	0.3053	-	0.3053	-
Announcement Date	5/14/20	11/25/20	5/14/21	2/14/22	5/13/22	5/13/22	11/25/22	11/25/22	11/25/22	2/10/23	5/11/23	5/11/23	11/22/23	5/13/24	5/13/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	195,220	182,577	185,323	160,414	163,530	143,729	126,967	110,779
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.772 x	4.44 x	4.453 x	3.461 x	3.719 x	3.074 x	2.599 x	2.196 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	32,832	32,919	28,691	41,679	27,287	32,264	32,950	34,204
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	19.7%	17.6%	15.7%	16%	13.5%	13.5%	13.6%	13.5%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.64%	5.41%	5.44%	6.14%	5.47%	5.35%	5.84%	6.12%
Assets ¹	412,580	420,550	453,052	490,190	501,165	534,522	526,375	534,804
Book Value Per Share ²	4.610	5.680	6.810	8.190	8.010	8.520	9.120	9.750
Cash Flow per Share ²	1.540	1.480	1.280	1.790	1.270	1.420	1.480	1.500
Capex ¹	5,643	4,347	3,377	3,333	4,684	5,150	5,985	6,356
Capex / Sales	2.11%	1.71%	1.4%	1.22%	1.68%	1.79%	2%	2.06%
Announcement Date	11/22/19	11/25/20	11/26/21	11/25/22	11/22/23	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Thai Beverage

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

13.48 THB

Average target price

17.47 THB

Spread / Average Target

+29.60%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Distillers & Wineries

	1st Jan change	Capi.
THAI BEVERAGE	-5.71%	9.2B
DIAGEO PLC	-7.90%	74.3B
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BROWN-FORMAN CORPORATION	-19.68%	21.66B
EMPERADOR INC.	-10.12%	5.04B
RÉMY COINTREAU	-25.65%	4.72B
ZJLD GROUP INC	+5.91%	4.51B
RADICO KHAITAN LIMITED	-4.93%	2.53B
MGP INGREDIENTS, INC.	-21.21%	1.71B
FEVERTREE DRINKS PLC	+3.05%	1.61B

Other Distillers & Wineries