1Q 2024 Financial Results
May 8, 2024
1Q24 Earnings Presentation
Safe harbor & forward looking statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements related to Sunrun (the "Company") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to: the Company's financial and operating guidance and expectations; the Company's business plan, trajectory, expectations, market leadership, competitive advantages, operational and financial results and metrics (and the assumptions related to the calculation of such metrics); the Company's momentum in its business strategies including its ESG efforts, expectations regarding market share, total addressable market, customer value proposition, market penetration, financing activities, financing capacity, product mix, and ability to manage cash flow and liquidity; the growth of the solar industry; the Company's financing activities and expectations to refinance, amend, and/or extend any financing facilities; trends or potential trends within the solar industry, our business, customer base, and market; the Company's ability to derive value from the anticipated benefits of partnerships, new technologies, and pilot programs, including contract renewal and repowering programs; anticipated demand, market acceptance, and market adoption of the Company's offerings, including new products, services, and technologies; the Company's strategy to be a storage-first company; the ability to increase margins based on a shift in product focus; expectations regarding the growth of home electrification, electric vehicles, virtual power plants, and distributed energy resources; the Company's ability to manage suppliers, inventory, and workforce; supply chains and regulatory impacts affecting supply chains; the Company's leadership team and talent development; the legislative and regulatory environment of the solar industry and the potential impacts of proposed, amended, and newly adopted legislation and regulation on the solar industry and our business; the ongoing expectations regarding the Company's storage and energy services businesses and anticipated emissions reductions due to utilization of the Company's solar energy systems; and factors outside of the Company's control such as macroeconomic trends, bank failures, public health emergencies, natural disasters, acts of war, terrorism, geopolitical conflict, or armed conflict / invasion, and the impacts of climate change. These statements are not guarantees of future performance; they reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and estimates and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from expectations or results projected or implied by forward-looking statements. The risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company's results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include: the Company's continued ability to manage costs and compete effectively; the availability of additional financing on acceptable terms; worldwide economic conditions, including slow or negative growth rates and inflation; volatile or rising interest rates; changes in policies and regulations, including net metering, interconnection limits, and fixed fees, or caps and licensing restrictions and the impact of these changes on the solar industry and our business; the Company's ability to attract and retain the Company's business partners; supply chain risks and associated costs; realizing the anticipated benefits of past or future investments, partnerships, strategic transactions, or acquisitions, and integrating those acquisitions; the Company's leadership team and ability to attract and retain key employees; changes in the retail prices of traditional utility generated electricity; the availability of rebates, tax credits and other incentives; the availability of solar panels, batteries, and other components and raw materials; the Company's business plan and the Company's ability to effectively manage the Company's growth and labor constraints; the Company's ability to meet the covenants in the Company's investment funds and debt facilities; factors impacting the home electrification and solar industry generally, and such other risks and uncertainties identified in the reports that we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. All forward-looking statements used herein are based on information available to us as of the date hereof, and we assume no obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements for any reason, except as required by law.
1Q24 Earnings Presentation | 02 |
Q1 OVERVIEW & STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
Mary Powell
CEO
03
Q1 results beat volumes and delivered strong margins, as we executed our storage-first strategy; volume inflection point in 2H
Executing storage-first,margin-focused sustainable growth strategy to drive meaningful Cash Generation
- In Q1, exceeded high-end of both storage and solar capacity installation guidance.
- Reiterating guidance of $200 million to $500 million annualized Cash Generation by Q4. Pro forma Q1 Cash Generation was $6 million.1
- Reiterating full-year storage installation outlook.
- Reducing full-year solar volume outlook by ~77 MW to prioritize storage & profitable growth.
- While near-term solar sales growth in Sunrun's direct business is slightly less than initially forecasted, growing 13% q/q, sales are ramping rapidly into 2Q and an inflection point on installation volumes is expected in 2H24. Sales in California are growing rapidly, increasing >30% q/q.
Leading with best pro-consumer storage offerings, laying the foundation for future monetization opportunities, and continuing to push innovation
- Increased storage attachment rates for new installations in Q1 to 50%, up from a 15% attachment rate in the prior year. In Q1, new storage installations almost tripled compared to the prior year. Fleet of Networked Storage Capacity now at 1.5 Gigawatt hours with more than 102,000 solar and battery systems installed.
- Announced two new record-setting grid services programs: A 16,000 customer "CalReady" virtual power plant program in California and 1,800+ customer "PowerOn Puerto Rico" virtual power plant. These programs support the grid, increase customer value with shared financial benefits, and provide additional recurring cash flow to Sunrun.
Focused on customer experience while driving continued operating efficiency
- Enjoyed continued improvement in our customer Net Promoter Score, measured at the time of installation, to approximately 75, another increase compared to last quarter.
- Our crew labor productivity has improved by 5% compared to the prior year, even as we more than tripled our mix of more complex battery projects. Our productivity installing batteries increased 30% year-over-year.
- Overall installation-related headcount is down 5 percentage points more than the change in volume. Most importantly, we are installing systems safely and with high quality.
- Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to dramatically improve efficiency and customer experience.
- G&A costs have declined slightly year-over-year, even as we accelerate the pace of innovation.
- Q1 Cash Generation of -$311 million, but was positive $6 million when adjusted for non-recurring timing and transaction-related costs. See slide 18 for our Cash Generation targets and assumptions underpinning our targets.
1Q24 Earnings Presentation
Q1 Key Metric Performance
957,313
Customers
+15% y/y
$50,766
Subscriber Value
+15% y/y
$11,891
Net Subscriber Value
-1% y/y
207.2 Megawatt hours
Storage Capacity Installed in Q1
+192% y/y
177.0 Megawatts
Solar Capacity Installed in Q1
-26% y/y
~50% Storage Attachment rate on new installations, +9% q/q and +234% y/y
6.9 Gigawatts
Networked Solar Capacity
1.5 Gigawatt hours
Networked Storage Capacity
$5.2 billion
Net Earning Assets
See Appendix for glossary of terms
and accompanying notes.
04
We are rapidly transitioning to lead with storage offerings
Storage installations in Q1 grew 192% y/y to 207 Megawatt hours, achieving a 50% attachment rate
➔ | Over 207 Megawatt hours of Storage | Storage Attachment Rate on New Installations |
Capacity Installed in Q1, a 192% increase | ||
compared to the prior year. |
- Sunrun has now installed more than 102,000 solar and storage systems representing over 1.5 GWhrs of stored energy capacity.
- Storage attachment rates increased, reaching ~50% of new installations in 1Q.
- We expect attachment rates to remain around this level for the remainder of the year but Storage Capacity Installed to grow rapidly.
Significant benefits of leading with storage for customers, the grid and Sunrun
- Pro-consumeroffering delivers the best economics in markets where rate structures encourage optimizing when energy is consumed or exported to the grid.
- Many storage systems can provide backup power capabilities, allowing households to power through grid outages.
- Substantial fleet with storage lays the foundation for grid service opportunities, which provide valuable dispatchable energy resources for utilities and grid operators and can provide additional financial benefit to our customers that they did not anticipate when subscribing to our offerings.
- Further differentiation compared to smaller solar companies that lack the capabilities to procure storage, design more complicated systems, permit and install complicated solar+storage systems, and manage fleets of energy storage systems.
- In markets where regulations do not require storage and where customers prefer solar-only offerings, we continue to offer our standard solar subscription services.
- Systems with backup storage are significantly accretive to Net Subscriber Values, adding several thousand dollars
- We expect Sunrun's growing fleet of energy resources will help address the increased electricity needs from rapid growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers generally.
1Q24 Earnings Presentation | 05 |
Total Value Generated expected to grow by over 10% in 2024 driven by higher Subscriber Values & lower input costs; volume inflection point in 2H
- Installations, which lag sales, now reflect earlier market optimization decisions & margin discipline; installations expected to grow from 1Q24 levels.
- Achieved >13% sequential sales growth in Sunrun's direct business (CA growing >30% sequentially, but down significantly year over year, and non-CA growing single-digits sequentially). Sales are expected to continue to grow rapidly into 2Q resulting in an inflection point of installation volumes in 2H. California demand continues to track well above rest of country.
- Increasing mix of higher-value storage business to drive strong value growth, with Total Value Generated expected to grow by over 10% in 2024.
2023 Subscriber Value: $46,503 | Anticipated 2024 Subscriber Value: ~$53,000 | |
Greater than 10% growth in Subscriber Value, owing to shift to higher-value offerings | ||
CA regulatory change resulted in demand | Forecasting strong sales | |
growth q/q resulting in inflection point in | ||
pull-in with gradual rebound | ||
Achieved >13% | installation volumes in 2H24 | |
sales growth | ||
q/q in Q1 |
10% sequential solar installation growth expected
4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24E | 3Q24E | 4Q24E | ||
Sunrun Direct Sales | Subscriber Value | Exited Market Installations | Affiliate Partner Installations | Sunrun Direct Installations1 | ||||||
See Appendix for glossary of terms and accompanying notes. Chart depicts approximate volumes and changes. | ||||||||||
2Q24 reflects midpoint of guidance and 3Q24 and 4Q24 reflects management's current view on pacing throughout the remainder of the year | ||||||||||
(1) Excludes exited & deprioritized markets (Arizona) | ||||||||||
1Q24 Earnings Presentation | 06 |
We Love Our People
Top Teams in Q1
Based on Commitment to Safety, Storage Attachment Rates, Quality and Customer Experience
Top Sales Team | Top Installation Team |
Direct-to-Home | Led by Foreman Jonathan M. |
Houston, TX | Houston, TX |
1Q24 Earnings Presentation
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE & OUTLOOK
Danny Abajian
CFO
08
Sunrun is Building a Base of Customers with Recurring Revenue and Multi-Decade Relationships
Annual Recurring Revenue from Subscribers increases to $1.4 billion with an Average Remaining Contract Life of 17.9 years
Q1 Volume Performance
24,038
Customer Additions
-26%year-over-year
207 MWh
Storage Capacity Installed
+192% year-over-year
177 MW
Solar Energy Capacity Installed
-26%year-over-year
50%
Battery Attachment Rate
an increase from 15% in Q1 2023
Q1 Unit Economics & Value Creation
$50,776
Subscriber Value
+15% year-over-year
Customer Base as of March 31, 2024
957,313
Customers
+15% year-over-year
See Appendix for glossary of terms and accompanying notes
$38,885
Creation Cost
+21% year-over-year
$5.2 Billion
Net Earning Assets
Including $783 million of Total Cash
$11,891
Net Subscriber Value
-1%year-over-year
1,532 MWh
Networked Storage Capacity
$262 Million
Total Value Generated
-13%year-over-year
6,866 MW
Networked Solar Energy Capacity
1Q24 Earnings Presentation
09
Net Subscriber Value of $11.9k in Q1; additional hardware cost deflation & ITC adder value expected
- 22,058 Subscriber Additions with Net Subscriber Value of $11,891 using a 6% discount rate, resulting in Total Value Generated of $262 million in Q1.
- These figures include the benefits from neither the domestic content ITC adder nor current equipment purchase prices. Equipment costs are expected to decline as higher cost materials flow through inventory from prior procurement activities.
- We present metrics using a 6% discount rate to enable ease of comparison across periods, in addition to providing a sensitivity table. We currently see an asset-level cost of capital of approximately 7.6%. Pro-forma for a 7.6% discount rate, Subscriber Value was $45,477, leading to a Net Subscriber Value of $6,593 and Total Value Generated of $145 million.
$50,776 | |
Subscriber Value | |
PV6% | $3,917 |
Renewal | |
PV6% | per |
subscriber | |
(O&M costs) | |
PV6% | |
Customer payments | |
PV6% | $46,858 |
per | |
(O&M costs) | |
subscriber | |
PV6% | |
Tax equity | |
Upfront | |
State rebates & prepayments | |
Subscriber
Value
Q1 average subscriber system size was 7.5 KWs
See Appendix for glossary of terms and accompanying notes.
$38,885
Creation Cost
Creation
Cost
Upfront
Installation costs
Upfront
S&M
Upfront
G&A
Upfront
(Platform Services Margin)
$11,891
Net Subscriber Value
$3,917 renewal
$7,973 contracted
PV6%
Net Subscriber
Value
Current capital costs are ~7.6% for "full stack" debt raised against the assets we originated in the quarter. This reflects observed debt capital costs for senior debt and subordinated debt and is calculated as follows:
4.15% | Average 7-yr treasury rate |
during Q1 | |
+2.33% | Senior debt credit spread |
- 6.48% Senior debt rate
+1.1% Impact on average when incorporating subordinated debt as part of capital stack
= 7.6% Weighted average
$6,593
Net Subscriber
Value @ 7.6%
$2,606 renewal | |
$3,987 contracted | PV7.6% |
Net Subscriber Value
pro-forma at 7.6%
discount rate
1Q24 Earnings Presentation
010
Attachments
- Original Link
- Original Document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
SunRun Inc. published this content on 08 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 May 2024 21:06:18 UTC.