INVESTOR PRESENTATION
MAY 2024
Legal Disclaimer
This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding our strategy, future operations, financial position, estimated revenues and losses, projected costs, prospects, plans and objectives of management, return of capital, expected results, future commodity prices, future production targets, realizing potential future fee rebates or reductions, including those related to certain levels of production, leverage targets and debt repayment, future earnings, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, expected drilling and development plans, projected well costs and cost savings initiatives, future financial position, future marketing opportunities, the participation level of our drilling partner and the financial and production results to be achieved as a result of the drilling partnership and the key assumptions underlying its projection and AR's environmental goals are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR's control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, supply chain disruption, lack of availability of drilling, completion and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, marketing and transportation risks, regulatory changes and changes in law, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of geopolitical events and world health events, cybersecurity risks, conflicts of interest among our stockholders, the state of markets for and availability of verified carbon offsets and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 or any subsequently filed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
This presentation also includes AR non-GAAP measures which are financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Please see "Antero Non-GAAP Measures" for definitions of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures.
Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as "AR" in the presentation and Antero Midstream Corporation is denoted
as "AM", which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) | 2 |
Antero Resources: The "Unconstrained" E&P Company
Scale & Inventory
20+ Years of Premium Inventory
Integrated Midstream
Development Reliability & Visibility
Firm Transport to LNG Fairway & Product Diversity
Premier Pricing via Gas Sold to LNG Markets & Liquids Uplift
Low Absolute Debt and Leverage
Flexibility Allows for Greater Commodity Price Exposure
Capital Efficiency and Free Cash Flow Conversion
Repeatable Free Cash Flow Drives Superior Return of Capital & Returns
Photo of Cheat Canyon, WV. Conservation efforts supported by Antero Resources.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) | 3 |
AR Has the Largest Low Cost Inventory
Appalachia Sub-$2.75/Mcfe Inventory
(Years - Locations Based on 3rd Party Data)
25
20
15
Years
10
5
-
22
16
Includes
~$340 MM
of Organic
Leasing
Since 2021
Includes $30 Bn of Acquisitions Since 2021
(seven separate transactions)
16
12
6 5
AR | Peer 1 | Peer 2 | Peer 3 | Peer 4/5 Combo |
Peer rationale for M&A: | Inventory | Gulf Coast/LNG market access | Balance Sheet Repair |
Source: Enverus - September 2023. | |
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Note: Peers include CHK, CNX, EQT, RRC and SWN. Represents sub-$2.75/Mcfe inventory that meets a 10% IRR threshold | 4 |
as defined by 3rd party source. |
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Days per 10,000 Lateral Feet Drilled
6.0 | |||
5.5 | 5.4 | Company | |
Record | |||
4.2 Days | |||
2023 | |||
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Daily Record |
YTD |
Significantly Reduces Cycle Time per Pad (1)
Increased Completion Stages per Day…
16.0 Stages
10.7 | 11.3 | Company | |
Record | |||
8.0 | |||
2023 | |||
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Daily Record |
YTD |
427 | |||||
Company | |||||
Record (2) | |||||
160 | 122 Days | ||||
2023 | |||||
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Record |
Note: Percentage increase or decrease arrows represent change from 2022 to 1Q 2024. Cycle time change represents 2019 to 2023. | ||
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) | Cycle time represents days from surface spud date to first production date. | 5 |
2) | Cycle time record excludes single "step out" wells or wells drilled and completed on pads with 5 wells or less. |
Antero Wells Continue to Outperform Peers
Antero leads its Appalachian peers in well productivity trends, and
importantly, continues to increase its liquids productivity
AR Cumulative Well Productivity vs. Peers (MMcfe/1,000')
800 | Well Count | Lateral Length (ft) | +24% vs | ||
Operator | Since | peer avg | |||
(MMcfe/1,000') | 700 | ||||
288 | 12,509 | 2020 | |||
Peer Average (1) | 812 | 12,361 | |||
600 | |||||
Peer | |||||
Equivalent | 500 | ||||
Average (1) | |||||
400 | |||||
Gas | |||||
Cumulative | 300 | ||||
200 | |||||
Normalized | 100 | ||||
0 | |||||
0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 | |
Months On Line |
Source: Wellhead production from Enverus public data. Well BTU categorization based on Antero internal BTU mapping data. Processing shrink and NGL yields consistently assigned across all operators based on assigned BTU buckets.
Note: Production data cutoff at 24 months. Peers limited to SW Marcellus Operators with a minimum of 150 wells TIL since 2020. Represents cumulative sum of the average rate-time profile. Assumes no processing for wells with less than 1100 BTU (zero C3+ yield). Represents Enverus lateral lengths for peer average and internal lateral lengths for AR data.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
1) Peers include EQT, RRC and SWN (SW Marcellus wells). | 6 |
Antero Capital Efficiency vs. Peers
AR has the lowest CAPEX per Mcfe of its peer group, at just $0.55/Mcfe
Capital Efficiency
(2024E D&C Capital/ 2024E Production)
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$1.12 $1.15
Peer Average: $0.92
$0.85
$0.80 | $0.72 | $0.76 |
$0.60 $0.55
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
Peer 1 | Peer 2 | Peer 3 | Peer 4 | Peer 5 | ||
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) | Note: Peers include CHK, CNX, EQT, RRC and SWN. Represents 2024 capital and production guidance updated for 1Q 2024 actuals. SWN | 7 | ||||
represents consensus estimates as of 05/01/2024. |
Antero Capital Efficiency vs. Peers
Change in D&C Capex vs. Change in Production (2024E / 2023A)
Production Growth | (2024E / 2023E) |
Production Decline | % Change in Production |
30% | Most Capital Efficient | |
20% | ||
10% | ||
0% | Peer 1 | Peer 2 |
Peer 5 | ||
Peer 3 | ||
(10%) |
(20%) Peer 4
(30%) | Least Capital Efficient | |||||
(30%) | (20%) | (10%) | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
% Change in Capital (2024E / 2023E) | |
Lower Capital | Higher Capital |
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) | Note: Peers include CHK, CNX, EQT, RRC and SWN. Represents 2024 capital and production guidance as of 1Q 2024. SWN represents | 8 |
consensus estimates as of 05/01/2024. |
Free Cash Flow Drivers
Antero's capital efficiency and exposure to liquids is expected to add > $400 million in incremental Free Cash Flow compared to 2023
AR D&C + Land Capital | AR Free Cash Flow Improvement |
($MM)
$1,057
$148
Land Capex
($MM)
~$470 MM
$763 | |||||||||
$909 | $88 | ||||||||
D&C Capex | $675 | ||||||||
2023A | 2024 | ||||||||
AR C3+ NGL Price | Guidance (1) | ||||||||
($/Bbl)(2) | |||||||||
$42.25 | |||||||||
$37.84 | |||||||||
C3 Propane | |||||||||
C3 Propane | |||||||||
$1/Bbl change | |||||||||
nC4 Butane | |||||||||
nC4 Butane | |||||||||
= ~$40 MM of | |||||||||
iC4 Isobutane | |||||||||
iC4 Isobutane | annual FCF | ||||||||
C5 Pentanes | C5 Pentanes | ||||||||
2024E Impact
Capital
Efficiency
~$294 MM
Liquids Price
Uplift
+$176 MM
2023A | 2024E |
2024E Cash Flow Impact
Note: Free Cash Flow is a Non-GAAP metric. Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions and assumptions. | |||
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) | 1) | Represents midpoint of 2024 guidance. | 9 |
2) | C3+ NGL Mont Belvieu pricing based on AR NGL component barrel consisting of 57% C3 (propane), 9% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+). 2024 |
strip pricing as of 05/01/2024.
Lowest Free Cash Flow Breakeven
Antero has the lowest Free Cash Flow Natural Gas Price Breakeven 2024E Unhedged FCF Natural Gas Price Breakeven (1)
($/Mcf Henry Hub)
D&C Capital Interest Expense Cash Costs + Basis - Liquids Uplift Base Dividend
Appalachian Operators | Haynesville Operators | |
In 1Q 2024, AR generated | ||
> $10 MM in Free Cash Flow (2) | ||
with NYMEX natural gas | $2.96 | $3.06 |
averaging $2.24/MMBtu | ||
$2.82 | ||
Antero | ||
$2.37
$2.25
$1.25
$2.48
$0.15 | ||||||||||
$0.85 | (2%) | (3%) | (6%) | (20%) | ||||||
Production | Production | Production | Production | |||||||
Decline (3) | Decline (3) | Decline (3) | Decline (3) | |||||||
Peer 1 | Peer 2 | Peer 3 | Peer 4 | Peer 5 |
Source: Publicly disclosed guidance, company presentations, earnings call transcripts, Wall Street research.
1) | Peers include CHK, CNX, EQT, RRC and SWN. 2024 NGL and oil pricing reflects strip as of 05/01/2024. |
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)3) | Represents 2024E vs 2023A production decline, pro forma for acquisitions & divestitures closed since 2023. Production based on guidance & consensus for SWN. 10 |
2) | Free Cash Flow is a Non-GAAP metric. Please see appendix for additional disclosures. |
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Antero Resources Corporation published this content on 06 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 May 2024 11:40:10 UTC.