There is no moving forward without looking back.
Earnings Release 1Q24
Key financial data
EARNINGS | |
NET PROFIT | €15.6m |
OPERATING RESULT | €28.5m |
EPS | €0.81 |
NIM | 3.9% |
ASSET QUALITY
COST OF RISK (NET LOANS) -0.2%
NPE RATIO | 2.1% |
NPE VOLUME | €146.2m |
CAPITAL | |
CET1 RATIO | 20.3% |
Business development
- NET PROFIT in first 3 months up 61% to €15.6m
- INCREASED PROFITABILITY driven by
higher net banking income & lower costs for legal cases - Modest overall growth in LOANS (up ca. 1% vPQ) with focus growth at 2% vPQ and DEPOSITS (up ca. 0.8% vPQ)
- On track to achieve OUTLOOK 2024
Outlook for the full year 2024 confirmed
LOAN BOOK GROWTH | up >6% | COST OF RISK | ca. 1% |
NIM | up >3.8% | TOTAL CAPITAL RATIO | >18.35% |
NET BANKING INCOME | up >4.5% | ROATE | ca. 6.5% |
OPEX | <191m | DPS | >€1.2 |
Key data
EUR m | |||
Selected items of the Profit or loss statement | 1Q24 | 1Q23 | (%) |
Net banking income | 76.6 | 67.8 | 13.1% |
Net interest income | 59.8 | 52.2 | 14.5% |
Net fee and commission income | 16.9 | 15.6 | 8.4% |
Net result on financial instruments | 0.3 | 0.2 | 75.0% |
Other operating result | -1.9 | -4.0 | -51.8% |
Operating income | 75.1 | 64.0 | 17.3% |
General administrative expenses | -46.5 | -43.7 | 6.4% |
Operating result before impairments and provisions | 28.5 | 20.3 | 40.6% |
Other result | -2.6 | -4.7 | -44.3% |
Expected credit loss expenses on financial assets | -6.9 | -4.5 | 55.1% |
Taxes on income | -3.4 | -1.5 | >100% |
Result after tax | 15.6 | 9.7 | 60.9% |
Performance ratios | 1Q24 | 1Q23 | (pts) |
Net interest income/total average assets | 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.3 |
Return on average tangible equity | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.6 |
Cost/income ratio | 60.7% | 64.5% | -3.8 |
Cost of risk ratio | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0 |
Cost of risk ratio (net loans) | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1 |
Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.81 | 0.50 | 31.0 |
Selected items of the Statement of financial position | Mar24 | Dec23 | (%) |
Loans and advances to customers | 3,522.6 | 3,489.2 | 1.0% |
Deposits and borrowings from customers | 5,071.5 | 5,032.6 | 0.8% |
Equity | 819.3 | 801.1 | 2.3% |
Total assets | 6,196.8 | 6,151.5 | 0.7% |
Risk-weighted assets | 3,694.3 | 3,653.2 | 1.1% |
Balance sheet ratios | Mar24 | Dec23 | (pts) |
Loan to deposit ratio | 69.5% | 69.3% | 0.2 |
NPE ratio | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.1 |
NPE Ratio (on balance loans) | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.1 |
NPE coverage ratio | 81.4% | 80.9% | 0.5 |
Liquidity coverage ratio | 416.0% | 313.4% | 102.6 |
Common equity tier 1 ratio | 20.3% | 20.4% | -0.1 |
Total capital ratio | 20.3% | 20.4% | -0.1 |
Earnings release 1Q24 3
1Q24 Highlights
Addiko Group is a specialist banking group focusing on providing banking products and services to Consumer and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) in Central and South-Eastern Europe (CSEE). The Group consists of the stock-market listed parent company Addiko Bank AG in Austria and six subsidiary banks in Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina (two banks), Serbia and Montenegro.
Addiko Bank AG is rated by Fitch Ratings. Since August 2023 there was no change in the rating (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of "BB" and Viability Rating (VR) of "bb", stable outlook on the Long-Term IDR). For further information, please refer to the Group's website (https://www.addiko.com/de/ratings/).
The figures shown in the Earnings Release 1Q24 are prepared on a consolidated basis and comprise the period 1 January - 31 March 2024 (1Q24). This report does not represent condensed financial statements in the meaning of IAS 34.
Addiko noted the announcement on 25 March 2024 on Agri Europe's intention to launch a voluntary offer for a minority stake in Addiko Bank AG. Prior to this announcement, Agri Europe has not been in contact with Addiko in relation to its intention to launch a voluntary offer for a minority stake. Addiko is reviewing the situation and will proceed in line with the obligations of the Austrian Takeover Code, including making a statement after publication of the formal tender offer document, which is expected to be published between 13 and 16 May 2024 according to information published by the Austrian Takeover Commission (https://www.takeover.at).
On 2 April 2024, Addiko Bank AG completed its additional listing on the Xetra trading platform in Germany. This move increases Addiko's visibility on the capital markets, creates accessibility to a broader investor base globally and underscores the group's commitment to fostering transparency, investor engagement and enhanced trading liquidity.
1. Financial development of the Group
1.1. Overview of financial performance
- Operating result before impairments and provisions up 40.6% to EUR 28.5 million vs. EUR 20.3 million a year earlier
- General administrative expenses in line with expectations
- Cost of risk (net loans) at 0.2% or EUR 6.9 million compared to EUR 4.5 million a year earlier
- NPE ratio stood at 2.1% (YE23: 2.0%) with increased NPE coverage at 81.4% (YE23: 80.9%)
- Return on average tangible equity up to 8.0% (1Q23: 5.4%)
- EPS of EUR 0.81 in 1Q24 compared to EUR 0.50 a year earlier
- Dividend of EUR 1.26 per share approved by shareholders on AGM in April 2024
The result after tax of EUR 15.6 million (1Q23: EUR 9.7 million) reflected the strong business development, successful repricing and relatively benign credit losses. Expected credit loss expenses stood at EUR 6.9 million or 0.2% Cost of Risk (net loans) (1Q23: EUR 4.5 million).
The share of the two focus segments Consumer and SME as a percentage of the gross performing loan book increased to 87.3% compared to 83.5% at the end of the first quarter 2023. The overall customer gross performing loan book continued along its growth trajectory, expanding to EUR 3.52 billion compared to EUR 3.36 billion at the end of 1Q23, while the non-focus loan book decreased. The overall focus book grew by 10% YoY.
Net interest income achieved growth of 14.5%, rising to EUR 59.8 million (1Q23: EUR 52.2 million) with improved NIM
at 3.89% (1Q23: 3.55%). The net fee and commission income increased by 8.4% YoY to EUR 16.9 million
(1Q23: EUR 15.6 million) mainly driven by accounts & packages and card business. General administrative expenses
Earnings release 1Q24 4
increased to EUR 46.5 million (1Q23: EUR 43.7 million) as result of the high inflation. The Cost/income ratio saw further
improvement, reaching 60.7% (1Q23: 64.5%), an improvement by 3.8 percentage points.
The NPE ratio remained stable at 2.1% (YE23: 2.0%) based on a non-performingexposure (NPE) of
EUR 146.2 million (YE23: EUR 138.0 million). The NPE coverage increased from 80.9% (YE23) to 81.4%, the NPE ratio
related to on-balance loans was at 2.9% (YE23: 2.8%).
The CET1 ratio stood at 20.3% (YE23: 20.4%). As of 1 January 2023, there is no difference between the transitional and the fully-loaded regulatory capital base due to the expiry of the IFRS 9 and Article 468 CRR (EU 2020/873) transitional capital rules.
1.2. Detailed analysis of the result
EUR m | ||||
01.01. - 31.03.2024 | 01.01. - 31.03.2023 | (abs) | (%) | |
Net banking income | 76.6 | 67.8 | 8.9 | 13.1% |
Net interest income | 59.8 | 52.2 | 7.6 | 14.5% |
Net fee and commission income | 16.9 | 15.6 | 1.3 | 8.4% |
Net result on financial instruments | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 75.0% |
Other operating result | -1.9 | -4.0 | 2.0 | -51.8% |
Operating income | 75.1 | 64.0 | 11.1 | 17.3% |
General administrative expenses | -46.5 | -43.7 | -2.8 | 6.4% |
Operating result before impairments and provisions | 28.5 | 20.3 | 8.2 | 40.6% |
Other result | -2.6 | -4.7 | 2.1 | -44.3% |
Expected credit loss expenses on financial assets | -6.9 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 55.1% |
Result before tax | 19.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 70.3% |
Taxes on income | -3.4 | -1.5 | -1.9 | >100% |
Result after tax | 15.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 60.9% |
Net banking income improved in 1Q24 by EUR 8.9 million to EUR 76.6 million.
Net interest income increased by EUR 7.6 million, driven by the focus segments Consumer and SME as well as income related to liquidity management and treasury. The Consumer segment recorded higher regular interest income of EUR 4.8 million on the back of an increased loan book volume (up EUR 190.5 million) compared with 1Q23 as the Group retained and further extended its premium pricing relative to incumbent banks. The increase in the SME segment of EUR 4.3 million was driven by both higher loan volumes (up by EUR 79.3 million YoY) as well as significantly improved loan pricing (interest rate on loans up +91bps YoY calculated on simple average), supported by the change in market rates in most markets and both, new business at higher rates and to a lower extent repricing of the variable back book. Interest income was additionally complemented by EUR 6.9 million derived from cash balances at central banks and EUR 7.2 million from investments in debt securities, reflecting the evolving interest rate environment. The regular interest income from the non-focus segment remained stable, with the increase in interest rates outweighing the impact from the intentionally accelerated run-down of the non-focus portfolio (down EUR 110.5 million YoY). On the liabilities side, interest expenses naturally increased by EUR 7.7 million due to both higher customer deposit volumes (up EUR 169.5 million YoY), whereby the volume of term deposits increased by EUR 347.1 million, and the changed market environment (interest rate increased by 102bps YoY), while a-vista/demand deposits decreased by EUR 173.4 million (interest rate increased by 5bps YoY).
Net fee and commission income increased at 1Q24 to EUR 16.9 million (1Q23: EUR 15.6 million), mainly driven by card business and accounts & packages.
Earnings release 1Q24 5
Result after tax of Addiko Group - development YoY (in EUR million)
The net result on financial instruments amounted to EUR 0.3 million at 1Q24, resulting from FX and related trading activities, compared to EUR 0.2 million at 1Q23.
Other operating result, which is the sum of other operating income and other operating expense, increased by EUR 2.0 million from EUR -4.0 million at 1Q23 to EUR -1.9 million at 1Q24. This position included the following significant items:
- Deposit guarantee expenses of EUR -1.0 million (1Q23: EUR -2.2 million). The decrease was primarily due to the notification from the Croatian deposit insurance agency that there will be no collection of the premium for the fourth quarter 2023 and the current reporting period, as the required amount of the local deposit insurance was already reached. The accrual booked for the fourth quarter 2023 (EUR 0.7 million) was released in 1Q24.
- Bank levies and other taxes at EUR -2.2 million (1Q23: EUR -0.9 million), of which EUR -0.6 million
(1Q23: EUR -0.5 million) pertains to banking levies from ECB, SRB and local banking agencies and EUR -0.7 million was attributable to the newly introduced special banking tax in Slovenia. - According to the information received from the recovery and resolution fund no charges are to be expected for the year 2024 (1Q23: EUR -1.1 million).
- Gains from the sale of non-financial assets, resulting from the disposal of non-core real estate assets increased to EUR 1.6 million (1Q23: EUR 0.6 million).
General administrative expenses increased from EUR 43.7 million at 1Q23 to EUR 46.5 million at 1Q24:
- Personnel expenses increased by EUR 2.4 million to EUR 25.4 million in the reporting period. The increase is mainly due to inflation-related salary increases.
- Other administrative expenses increased by EUR 0.6 million to EUR 17.0 million, mainly due to higher advertising costs.
- Depreciation and amortisation decreased by EUR 0.1 million to EUR -4.2 million.
Despite the increase in general administrative expenses, significantly higher net banking income led to an improvement of the cost/income ratio from 64.5% to 60.7%, down 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous year.
The other result, at EUR -2.6 million was mainly driven by the potential impact of new lawsuits received in Slovenia for Swiss franc-denominated loans during the reporting period (EUR -1.4 million), reflecting a change in the court practice compared to 2023. In the comparative reporting period the other result was at EUR -4.7 million, mainly impacted by credit-linked and portfolio-based provisions for expected legal proceedings on Swiss franc-denominated loans in Croatia.
Expected credit loss expenses on financial assets totalled EUR 6.9 million at 1Q24, an increase of EUR 2.5 million compared to 1Q23 (EUR 4.5 million). The ECL bookings are driven by non-performing exposure in focus segments and remain partially mitigated by releases of ECL in non-focus segments. In total, coverage of non-performing
Earnings release 1Q24 6
portfolio by ECL increased by 0.5 percentage points since the beginning of year. In the first quarter 2024, there were no updates on forward-looking economic indicators. Addiko decided to maintain the management overlay of EUR 6.5 million unchanged, in light of the continued volatility of the economic environment and uncertainties regarding future developments.
Taxes on income increased to EUR 3.4 million at 1Q24 compared to EUR 1.5 million at 1Q23. The development mainly reflects the higher Result before tax in 1Q24 compared to 1Q23 and the increase of the corporate income tax rate in Slovenia. The effective tax rate increased from 13.4% (1Q23) to 18.0%.
Overall, the result after tax increased significantly by 60.9% to EUR 15.6 million (1Q23: EUR 9.7 million).
1.3. Detailed analysis of the statement of financial position
EUR m | |||||
31.03.2024 | 31.12.2023 | (abs) | (%) | ||
Cash and cash equivalents | 1,218.8 | 1,254.5 | -35.6 | -2.8% | |
Financial assets held for trading | 22.7 | 29.5 | -6.8 | -23.0% | |
Loans and advances to credit institutions | 96.5 | 66.6 | 29.8 | 44.8% | |
Loans and advances to customers | 3,522.6 | 3,489.2 | 33.4 | 1.0% | |
Investment securities | 1,204.0 | 1,178.6 | 25.4 | 2.2% | |
Tangible assets | 55.8 | 57.6 | -1.8 | -3.1% | |
Intangible assets | 22.7 | 23.3 | -0.7 | -2.8% | |
Tax assets | 34.3 | 36.8 | -2.5 | -6.8% | |
Current tax assets | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | -51.9% | |
Deferred tax assets | 33.5 | 35.1 | -1.6 | -4.6% | |
Other assets | 18.2 | 14.0 | 4.2 | 29.9% | |
Non-current assets held for sale | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.7% | |
Total assets | 6,196.8 | 6,151.5 | 45.3 | 0.7% | |
EUR m | |||||
31.03.2024 | 31.12.2023 | (abs) | (%) | ||
Financial liabilities held for trading | 2.4 | 4.2 | -1.8 | -42.7% | |
Deposits and borrowings from credit institutions | 97.2 | 106.8 | -9.6 | -9.0% | |
Deposits and borrowings from customers | 5,071.5 | 5,032.6 | 38.9 | 0.8% | |
Other financial liabilities | 59.4 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | |
Provisions | 99.0 | 99.2 | -0.2 | -0.2% | |
Tax liabilities | 4.0 | 4.1 | -0.1 | -1.5% | |
Current tax liabilities | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | -0.9% | |
Other liabilities | 44.0 | 44.2 | -0.2 | -0.5% | |
Equity | 819.3 | 801.1 | 18.2 | 2.3% | |
Total equity and liabilities | 6,196.8 | 6,151.5 | 45.3 | 0.7% |
Earnings release 1Q24 7
2. Segment information
Addiko Group's business segments reflect its strategy focused on repositioning itself as a specialist Consumer and SME banking group with a focus on growth in these two 'focus segments' while simultaneously conducting an accelerated run-down in the lower yielding non-focus segments, which include Large Corporate, Mortgage and Public Finance.
EUR m | |||||||
Focus segments | Non-focus segments | Corporate | |||||
31.03.2024 | SME | Large | Public | Center | Total | ||
Consumer | Business | Mortgage | Corporates | Finance | |||
Net banking income | 43.0 | 28.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -3.5 | 76.6 |
Net interest income | 33.3 | 21.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -3.4 | 59.8 |
o/w regular interest income | 31.6 | 18.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 17.4 | 72.9 |
Net fee and commission income | 9.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 16.9 |
Net result from financial instruments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Other operating result | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
Operating income | 43.0 | 28.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -5.1 | 75.1 |
General administrative expenses | -22.2 | -8.9 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -13.8 | -46.5 |
Operating result before | |||||||
impairments and provisions | 20.8 | 19.6 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -18.9 | 28.5 |
Other result | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
Expected credit loss expenses on | |||||||
financial assets | -5.1 | -3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.9 |
Result before tax | 15.7 | 15.8 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -21.5 | 19.0 |
Business volume | |||||||
Net loans and receivables | 1,735.9 | 1,314.9 | 347.2 | 71.5 | 29.5 | 120.1 | 3,619.0 |
o/w gross performing loans | |||||||
customers | 1,752.1 | 1,322.3 | 347.3 | 69.5 | 28.9 | 3,520.1 | |
Gross disbursements | 202.6 | 176.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 380.7 | |
Financial liabilities at AC 1) | 2,880.6 | 1,077.2 | 0.0 | 98.9 | 258.6 | 912.8 | 5,228.1 |
RWA 2) | 1,322.7 | 919.8 | 204.7 | 88.9 | 15.3 | 574.2 | 3,125.7 |
Key ratios | |||||||
NIM 3) | 5.4% | 3.8% | -0.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 3.9% | |
Cost/Income Ratio | 51.6% | 31.3% | 6.8% | 44.7% | 35.4% | 60.7% | |
Cost of risk ratio | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
Loan to deposit ratio | 60.3% | 122.1% | 0.0% | 72.3% | 11.4% | 69.5% | |
NPE ratio (on-balance loans) | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 15.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | |
NPE coverage ratio | 81.0% | 82.3% | 82.5% | 78.3% | 78.2% | 81.4% | |
NPE collateral coverage | 0.4% | 22.4% | 81.7% | 67.3% | 63.3% | 24.9% | |
Change CL/GPL (simple average) | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | -0.2% | |
Yield GPL (simple average) | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% |
- Financial liabilities at AC include the Direct deposits (Austria/Germany) amounting to EUR 543 million, EUR 97 million Deposits of credit institutions and EUR 273 million other liabilities. 2) Includes only credit risk. 3) Net interest margin on segment level is the sum of interest income (without interest income on NPE) and expenses including funds transfer pricing divided by the respective average business volume using daily balances.
Earnings release 1Q24 8
EUR m
Focus segments | ||
31.03.2023 | SME | |
Consumer | Business | |
Net banking income | 36.2 | 22.5 |
Net interest income | 27.5 | 16.4 |
o/w regular interest income | 26.8 | 14.1 |
Net fee and commission income | 8.8 | 6.1 |
Net result from financial instruments | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other operating result | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Non-focus segments | Corporate | ||
Large | Public | Center | |
Mortgage | Corporates | Finance | |
5.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
5.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
4.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 11.1 |
0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
Total
67.8
52.2
58.2
15.6
0.2 -4.0
Operating income | 36.2 | 22.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -3.6 | 64.0 |
General administrative expenses | -20.9 | -7.8 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -13.3 | -43.7 |
Operating result before | |||||||
impairments and provisions | 15.3 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -16.9 | 20.3 |
Other result | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Expected credit loss expenses on | |||||||
financial assets | -3.4 | -2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
Result before tax | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | -21.6 | 11.2 |
Business volume | |||||||
Net loans and receivables | 1,547.1 | 1,242.1 | 412.4 | 103.2 | 43.3 | 62.5 | 3,410.7 |
o/w gross performing loans | |||||||
customers | 1,561.7 | 1,243.0 | 411.1 | 102.6 | 42.5 | 3,360.9 | |
Gross disbursements | 148.0 | 198.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 349.2 | |
Financial liabilities at AC 1) | 2,691.0 | 1,080.9 | 0.0 | 201.5 | 291.5 | 797.5 | 5,062.5 |
RWA 2) | 1,180.6 | 895.3 | 246.7 | 137.3 | 20.7 | 508.8 | 2,989.4 |
Key ratios | |||||||
NIM 3) | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.5% | |
Cost/Income Ratio | 57.7% | 34.7% | 7.9% | 37.1% | 31.9% | 64.5% | |
Cost of risk ratio | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
Loan to deposit ratio | 57.5% | 114.9% | 0.0% | 51.2% | 14.9% | 68.3% | |
NPE ratio (on-balance loans) | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | |
NPE coverage ratio | 79.0% | 72.3% | 78.3% | 91.0% | 62.2% | 77.0% | |
NPE collateral coverage | 2.5% | 46.3% | 79.8% | 90.5% | 100.0% | 37.5% | |
Change CL/GPL (simple average) | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
Yield GPL (simple average) | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
- Financial liabilities at AC include the Direct deposits (Austria/Germany) amounting to EUR 553 million, EUR 114 million Deposits of credit institutions and EUR 130 million other liabilities. 2) Includes only credit risk. 3) Net interest margin on segment level is the sum of interest income (without interest income on NPE) and expenses including funds transfer pricing divided by the respective average business volume using daily balances.
3. AGM 2024
On 26 April 2024, Addiko Bank AG held its ordinary Annual General Meeting (AGM 2024) as a physical meeting in Vienna. All proposed agenda items were approved. The AGM 2024 prematurely extended the term of office of Ms. Monika Wildner and Mr. Frank Schwab as members of the Supervisory Board until the end of the Annual General Meeting for the business year 2026. The AGM 2024 also approved the dividend for the financial year 2023 of EUR 1.26 per share, the dividend payment date is 7 May 2024.
Earnings release 1Q24 9
4. Outlook
Supported by a higher grade of digitalisation and by an increasing brand recognition of Addiko's 3D animated character Oskar, the Group will continue to accelerate its specialist strategy in the CSEE markets, focusing on sustainable business growth in the segments Consumer and SME.
The projected positive development of the Group is expected to be supported by a positive macroeconomic outlook for the CSEE region in 2024. In its latest Spring forecast, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) raised their expectations regarding GDP growth for the three EU candidate countries Addiko Group operates in: Bosnia
- Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro. Compared to their projection in autumn 2023 GDP growth is now forecasted for YE24 at 2.5% for Bosnia & Herzegovina (prev. 1.9%), at 3.0% for Serbia (prev. 2.5%) and at 4.2% for Montenegro (prev. 2.9%). The latest forecast for the EU country Croatia remained unchanged at 2.9% whereas for Slovenia it has been reduced slightly from 2.7% to 2.5%.
After two years of high inflation in the CSEE region, it slowed down quite sharply on the back of falling food and energy prices. Compared to wiiw's expectations in autumn 2023, their Spring forecast is now drawing a brighter picture on inflation. In 2024 inflation is expected to come down faster: for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Slovenia and Croatia the range is now between 2.8% and 3.5% (prev. between 3.0% and 4.0%) and for Serbia and Montenegro both at 4.5% (prev. between 5.0% and 5.5%).
After the ECB implemented ten interest rate hikes in the period from July 2022 to September 2023, the key interest rate for ECB loans rose from below 0% to 4.5%, reaching the highest level of the past two decades. Based on lower rates of inflation in the Eurozone, market participants and financial market analysts expect the ECB to ease their monetary policy in the second half of 2024 and are forecasting the start of interest rate cuts.
As this more positive macroeconomic environment was partially already addressed when finalising the Outlook & Mid- Term Guidance in the Group Management Report for the year 2023, the below figures are confirmed:
Outlook | Guidance | Guidance | Previous | ||
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Guidance | ||
Income & Business | |||||
ca. 10% CAGR in | |||||
Total loan book growth 1) | >6% CAGR 2023-2026 | focus book | |||
NIM 2) | >3.8% | >4.0% | >4.1% | >3.8% | |
NBI (growth YoY) 2) | >4.5% | ca. 9% | ca. 9% | n.a. | |
OPEX | <€191m | (CIR ca. 50%) | |||
Risk & Liquidity | |||||
CoR 3) | ca. 1% | <1.1% | <1.2% | ca. 1.2% | |
NPE ratio 4) | <3% as guiding principle | n.a. | |||
Total capital ratio | >18.35% subject to yearly SREP | >18.6% | |||
LDR | Ramping up to <80% | <100% | |||
Profitability | |||||
RoATE 5) | ca. 6.5% | ca. 9% | >10% | >10% | |
DPS 6) | >€1.2 | >€1.6 | >€2 | 60% of net profit | |
- Gross performing loans. 2) Assuming an average yearly deposit facility rate of 385bp in 2024, 325bp in 2025 and 263bp in 2026. 3) On net loans. 4) On on- balance loans (EBA). 5) Assuming an effective tax rate of ≤19% and considering pull-to-par effect of majority of negative fair value reserves in FVTOCI.
- Dividend for result of the respective year, distributed in the following calendar year subject to AGM decision, in line with new dividend policy. NB Additional costs for activities related to the Voluntary Offer, announced by Agri Europe Cyprus Limited on 25 March 2024, are not included in the Outlook for 2024.
Earnings release 1Q24 10
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Addiko Bank AG published this content on 08 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 May 2024 05:42:03 UTC.